Free Player Lab TrialBaseball Picks Daily Fantasy Expert Advice
Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/17/17
Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.
First time with NFL or MLB? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.
Pitcher
Corey Kluber FD 12000 DK 13400
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @CLE
FD - 40.99 DK - 27.11
It seems like we touch on a Cleveland Indians starter every night, but they have enough to go around. The ace of the bunch trots out tonight in the form of Corey Kluber. Kluber and the Tribe enter into the day as -260 favorites against the Royals. The Royals ended the Indians' streak just a few days ago, but they bounced back last night and will look to stay hot going into the playoffs. The Klubot is one of the 2 or 3 best pitchers in baseball and he has obliterated just about everyone. A .254 wOBA against lefties and a .239 against righties is utter domination. He strikes out close to 12 per 9 innings and walks less than 2. He is my pick for Cy Young and as long as he has a few more quality starts, I think he gets it. The Royals are nothing to be afraid of and are a worse hitting team on the road. Kluber is the best pitcher on the slate and it just comes down to whether or not you can afford him and who you have to sacrifice.
Garrett Richards FD 7400 DK 6700
Opponent - TEX (Gonzalez) Park - @LAA
FD - 28.18 DK - 18.61
On most slates this big, we have 3 or 4 elite arms with a. Few different ways to go. The way I see it today is Kluber and the field: he's the clear-cut option in all formats and it will be very risky to fade him. With that being said, its viable in tournaments. You also have to find another SP on DK. Looking down quite a bit, you run into Garrett Richards. If you've been paying attention to baseball for more than a year or so, you know who he is. He is the Angels ace. He just had a gruesome injury at the start of last season and has been struggling back ever since. He's finally back, dominating in his early 15 innings. He'll get the start against the Rangers tonight in pitcher-friendly Angels Stadium. He may not see a full workload, but 70-80 pitches at this price is a steal for a pitcher of Richards caliber in a high-upside match-up like this. Richards is a fine option in all formats and my favorite SP2 on DraftKings. Don't be afraid of the unknown. This guy is a top 20 pitchers when healthy.
Catcher
Wilson Ramos FD 2400 DK 3200
Opponent - BOS (Rodriguez) Park - @TB
FD - 8.95 DK - 6.85
Wilson Ramos has been getting more attention as of late, but he's been pretty solid against lefties all season long. He's hit 9 homers in total and has sported a .340 wOBA against southpaws. He's a very solid hitting catcher and he comes in at an extremely fair price tag. Catcher is easily the weakest position of the night and we will have to take what we can get. Eduardo Rodriguez is a pretty average pitcher that's allowed a .344 combined wOBA and 17 homers in just over 100 innings. I won't say Ramos is safe, but he should have plenty of opportunities to get driven in or drive some in himself. I do prefer him in cash games over tournaments in the spacious Tropicana Field. The next guy we touch on has a lot more HR upside.
Alex Avila FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @CHC
FD - 8.71 DK - 6.45
The Cubs are officially in playoff mode. If you tuned into either of the last 2 contests, the focus is quite evident. They have taken down the Cardinals in 2 straight pivotal games and will look to make it 3 against Lance Lynn. Lynn is definitely a solid pitcher, but we know he struggles against lefties. He has held a .343 wOBA against them on the year and moves into a hitter-friendly Wrigley Field. Alex Avila was a huge addition for the Cubs and one that has paid dividends. He mashes righties to the tune of a .393 wOBA and is a guy you can count on in cash games. Lance Lynn is a fine pitcher, but I prefer the Cubs lefties. Avila is a fine option in all formats and sees a fair price across the board.
First Base
Jesus Aguilar FD 2300 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA (Peters) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.6
The Brewers faced a lefty last night and we looked at the trio of Aguilar/Santana/Braun from the Brewers. We'll double-down tonight, as the Brew Crew face off with an ever worse lefty in Dillon Peters. He's only pitched 15 innings so far, but his minor league numbers were pretty good. Pretty good for Marlin at least. He still struck out just 7 per 9 in AA and walked close to 3, while sporting a 1.86 HR/9. He's nothing to be afraid of and this Brewers team should do plenty of damage. Aguilar will once again be plugged into the cleanup hole and become one of the immediate top plays of the night. He has sported a .382 wOBA against them and has 6 homers in 100 at-bats. He's the real deal and you won't find a better price anywhere.
Anthony Rizzo FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @CHC
FD - 12.56 DK - 9.56
We'll start 1st off right where we left off catcher. The Cubs. I don't often look to target Lance Lynn, but he's facing a lethal Cubs offense with some strong lefties. They're hitting the ball extremely well and I do see Lynn struggling in this one. We know Rizzo is one of the best players in the game and he's backed it up so far in 2017 with a .377 wOBA and 41% hard contact rate. He's a much better hitter at home (.411 wOBA) and faces off with an extremely underwhelming arm. Expect Rizzo to get something done in this one. He is my safest 1B on the board, though many will disagree as they see Lance Lynn as being a dominant pitcher. I see the Cubs as one of the sneakiest and better stacks of the entire day.
Second Base
Ian Kinsler FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @DET
FD - 10.04 DK - 8.06
We haven't touched on the Tigers yet and we'll only do it once more because, well, they stink. The Tigers are not a team I want to bother myself with, however, this match-up is simply too insane to pass up. Dylan Covey is probably the worst pitcher in baseball and I can't fathom why he is getting another start. He has allowed a .467 wOBA to lefties and a .386 to righties. He's also given up 18 home runs in just 50 innings. INSANE. Ian Kinsler will lead things off and I just don't see a way this Tigers team can be quiet here. Everyone from the 1 hole to 6 makes sense in cash games. Kinsler is my favorite of the bunch as he's been better against righties (.349 wOBA) this year than in years past. He's a very consistent option at 2B and one with marginal upside against Dylan Covey.
Scooter Gennett FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Cole) Park - @CIN
FD - 8.71 DK - 6.85
On first glance, Gerrit Cole is a pitcher you want to stay away from. He is indeed an all-star caliber arm and he has the ability to go 7 or 8 every time he takes the mound. He's also factually below average against lefties. He's held a .331 wOBA or worse against them for 3 straight years and has posted a .532 on the road. He moves into the Uber hitter-friendly Great American Ballpark and faces off with some tough lefties. Votto and Schebler are other guys I like, but the main one is Scooter Gennett. With 2B being a bit weak, Gennett gives you the real HR upside for a reasonable price. You're not hoping to hit one in a million. Gennett has sported a .362 wOBA against righties and he is, in fact, a really good hitter all-around. You may be a bit hesitant to target Cole, but the numbers should sway you away from that. Gennett is a solid option at second in any format.
Shortstop
Tim Beckham FD 3200 DK 3900
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.95
We haven't touched on the Orioles just yet, but the righties are certainly in play against C.C. Sabathia. Jonathan Schoop just missed the cut at 2nd and is a guy I love. As for SS, Tim Beckham looks like a strong cash game play. He's been in the leadoff hole against lefties recently and does bring some upside at a fair price. He's always hit lefties well and has held a .340 wOBA on this season. He will have plenty of at-bats to take advantage of and plenty of guys behind to knock him in. He faces off with C.C. Sabathia, who' glory days were about 20 years ago. He's still not bad, but a .328 wOBA against righties isn't good either. Shortstop is certainly one of the uglier positions on the day, so you can definitely just wait for lineups to come out and go cheap. Either way, Beckham is in the picture if you're looking for upside and aren't worried about the money.
Carlos Correa FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - SEA (Moore) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.47
If you have the funds to pay up at SS, I think the best way to go is Carlos Correa. Andrew Moore doesn't have horrible numbers, but he's pitched most of his games in Safeco Field against underwhelming opponents. He now moves into Minute Maid Park and faces off with one of the most lethal offenses on Earth. He does have a .231 BABIP, so it completely explains the average .320 wOBA. The Astros are expected to do damage here and Cortes will be in the heart of the order. He's been just as good against righties as he has been against lefties and has as much HR potential as anyone at the position. We won't touch on the Astros very much at all, but they do make for an interesting stack in a tournament. I don't expect any of them to be over 15% owned.
Third Base
Manny Machado FD 3700 DK 4700
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.49 DK - 8.89
It's getting to the point where 3B has more opportunity cost than 1B. It seems like there are 5 or 6 elite options on a daily basis at third. Tonight, my favorite option is Manny Machado against Sabathia. We just went over this with Beckham, so we don't need to dig too deep into C.C. Machado is one of the young elite bats in the game and he's really picked it up this year. He holds a .368 wOBA against lefties and has 8 homers in less than 150 at-bats. Sabathia, who's allowed a .328 wOBA to righties, is giving up a 41% hard contact rate and striking out just 5 per 9 innings. Machado is at the head of one of the bigger positions on the day and I hope he pays off for my sake. His ownership should be around 10% and fly under the radar for the most part. The Orioles have some upside here, but I doubt they get much attention for the general public.
Jake Lamb FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @SF
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.94
I know we like to get Jake Lamb at home in Chase Field, but this match-up is too sexy to ignore. Everyone knows how great Lamb is against righties (.381 wOBA) and he hasn't appeared to be slowing down anytime soon. He is in AT&T Park tonight, where the balk is tough to get out. With that being said, dead pull to right field is pretty average. That's really the only spot Lamb hits them anyways, so I'm not sure if this is the worst park in the world. He also gets to see Chris Stratton, who's posted a .381 wOBA and has allowed 8 homers to lefties in less than 30 innings. The D-Backs lefties do have some merit here and Lamb makes for a tremendous play on both FD and DK. Machado is still a tiny bit ahead, but it's not by much at all.
Outfield
Kyle Schwarber FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.65
We touched on the Cubs a bit earlier with Rizzo and Avila and we'll cap them off here in the OF with Kyle Schwarber. You can also include any other lefty OF'er who makes the order and isn't named Jason Heyward. The Cubs face Lance Lynn, who's a bit overrated and simply not good against left-handers. He's moving into the hostile Wrigley Field during the day and is expected to run into some issues. Kyle Schwarber is typically a boom or bust option, but he has posted a .377 wOBA and .46% hard contact rate. I'll have a Schwarber in all formats, but I do think he's far riskier than some of the contact bats in Coors Field. Either way, the Cubs offense is one I have a lot of interest in today as I think they'll go way over-looked. The Cubs outfield is one to pay attention to.
Ryan Braun FD 3500 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Peters) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.91 DK - 8.65
Domingo Santana FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - MIA (Peters) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.97 DK - 8.49
We're right back on this lefty-mashing OF duo after a great showing last night. Braun hit an HR and 2 doubles. Santana wasn't as electric, but he got a hit, walked, and got driven in. They'll now see an even worse lefty tonight in Dillon Peters. Peters is an ignored piece in one of the worst farm systems of all-time, so that should give you a bit of an idea. He does have K stuff and while the control will give him trouble from time to time, he's not what you would call wild. He can lose command on his fastball and it will just, in turn, force him to lay in pitches that he otherwise wouldn't. Both Braun and Santana have posted a .400+ wOBA against lefties and I wouldn't be surprised to see it for years to come. I'm all over these 3 Brewers righties and while they are nowhere near a must play, I want them on my team.
Tyler Collins FD 2200 DK 3000
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @DET
FD - 3.99 DK - 3.09
Alex Presley FD 2800 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Covey) Park - @DET
FD - 8.43 DK - 6.91
We top things off in the OF with this interesting Detroit duo of Alex Presley and Tyler Collins. Neither of these guys typically stand out, but you don't have to against Dylan Covey. He is so utterly atrocious that it's almost impossible to look at the numbers and come out with a negative verdict on a hitter. He doesn't get a single type of hitter out with consistency. If there is 1 guy the White Sox need to get off the team, it's Covey. He is maybe an AA pitcher at this point. He's allowed a .467 wOBA to lefties for god's sake. You can't get worse. Both Presley and Collins hit righties well (.363, .351 wOBA's) and see a huge uptick in expected production. The Tigers are somehow projected for nearly 6 runs, which should give you a massive idea of who this Dylan Covey fella is. Get some Tigers in there.
GRAB A FREE TRIAL OF OUR PROJECTION SYSTEM, AND CHECK OUT DFSR PRO!
image sources
- Corey_Kluber_on_June_27,_2013: By Keith Allison on Flickr (Original version)UCinternational (Crop) [CC BY-SA 2.0], via Wikimedia Commons
1 Visitor Comment
Post a Reply
You must be logged in to post a comment.
SP sheet for Sunday:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1YdT_HtPjxv6KTbEYd08pzWyr-y07Rpr7loPE9N4f75g/edit?usp=sharing