Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/7/17

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Pitcher

Corey Kluber FD 11600 DK 13100
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 50.11 DK - 33.26

Tonight we get two of the games elite pitchers and the choice is pretty simple, at least in my opinion. Clayton Kershaw made his return last Friday and despite being held to 70 pitches was electric striking out seven and allowing just two hits over six innings. While that pitch count will likely get a boost tonight, the Dodgers won't be pushing it with their ace as they currently hold an 11.5 game lead in the division and an eight game lead in the National League. It just isn't worth the risk in cash games but feel free to roll him out in GPP's tonight. For safety, I lean Corey Kluber who has been a CY Young candidate and one of the most consistent options all season as he has held opponents under three earned runs in 13 of his last 15 starts. Not only does he provide a safe floor but has huge upside as well with an 11.85 K/9 rate and 15.8% swinging strike rate. Safe in all formats.

Tanner Roark FD 8600 DK 9000
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @WSH
FD - 32.5 DK - 21.38

I don't love the secondary options in the value range tonight but one that stands out as a decent SP2 for cash games is Tanner Roark. His overall numbers don't pop off the page(4.48 ERA, 4.21 xFIP, 8.10 K/9) but he has been very consistent lately holding opponents to three or fewer earned runs in 10 of his last 11 starts, seven for quality starts(FanDuel scoring). He has also shown us some upside with 26 strikeouts over his last three starts with just two walks. Like Kluber, Roark also gets a top matchup vs. a team that ranks in the bottom third of the league in almost all offensive categories.

Catcher

Roberto Perez FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 7.25 DK - 5.4

The Indians are going to be popular tonight on a smaller, eight-game slate but will be tough to avoid considering they have been the hottest team in the league over the past couple weeks. The first of their bats I like tonight starts with their catcher who went into Wednesday nights game with hits in nine straight games including three straight with multiple hits. Sure he gets a downgrade due to the batting order but he is on the road which gives him that extra chance to come to the plate and he is also better against lefties with a .320 wOBA and 95 wRC+(.281/68 vs RH).

J.T. Realmuto FD 2600 DK 3400
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.75 DK - 8.66

Anytime we get elite aces on the mound I always tend to check out the matchup for J.T. Realmuto. He hits higher in the lineup(5th spot) than Perez but has been struggling lately which has me leaning to him more for GPP's but he does provide us some upside with 16 home runs this season. While he showed reverse splits last season, he has been much better vs. southpaws this season with a .373 wOBA, 131 wRC+amd .222 ISO(.316/94/.163 vs RH).

First Base

Joey Votto FD 4400 DK 5600
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @NYM
FD - 13.87 DK - 10.44

From a raw points perspective, the Canadian slugger sits atop the projections tonight. While he is unlikely to win the award he has put up a heck of a fight for the National League MVP this season despite playing for one of the worst teams in baseball. He has carried the Reds to a 12th overall rank in runs scored thanks to yet another .400+ wOBA season(8 of last 9 years) while once again showing off his power with 34 home runs, just three away from his career high. He and the Reds will go up against Matt Harvey who struggled big time in his return to the Mets rotation giving up seven earned runs to the Astros in just two innings pitched. Votto is right at the top of my list of players to pay up for on Thursday night.

Eric Hosmer FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @KC
FD - 10.45 DK - 8.06

If you are looking for a consistent option in the next tier down that can be used in all formats tonight consider Eric Hosmer. He has been one of the main reasons the Royals have stayed alive in the wildcard race all season with his .317/.383/.501 slash line with 23 home runs, 80 RBI, and 84 runs scored. He hits cleanup and should get plenty of opportunities to drive in runs tonight as he faces Kyle Gibson who has been up and down all season and despite a nice run as of late has a 5.33 ERA, 4.44 xFIP and 17.9% HR/FB rate on the season.

Also Consider: Freddie Freeman(ATL)

Second Base

Dee Gordon FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.52 DK - 9.1

Sean Newcomb isn't a gas can by any means but the thing that stood out tonight was the value you get with Dee Gordon coming in under $4K on both sites. That isn't the only thing to like about Gordon who hits leadoff in front of NL MVP favorite Giancarlo Stanton. He comes into tonight with hits in 10 straight and 11 of his last 12 games including eight multi-hit efforts. Gordon has shown pretty even splits with around a .300 average vs. both hands and gives us a huge boost in upside with his speed as he has already stolen 49 bases in 2017. All things considered, he is safe in all formats.

Brian Dozier FD 4300 DK 4700
Opponent - KC (Gaviglio) Park - @KC
FD - 10.74 DK - 8.48

If you maybe wanna go for a walk on the wild side with me tonight in GPP's consider Brian Dozier. The risk comes as he has been a much better hitter vs. southpaws but the matchup will be tough avoid on a smaller eight-game slate. He faces spot starter Sam Gaviglio who was just recently picked up off waivers from Seattle and has been very disappointing this season with a 4.62 ERA, 4.86 xFIP and has given up at least one home run in 10 of his 11 starts.

Also Consider: Whit Merrifield(KC)

 

Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 4200 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.52

Francisco Lindor and Trea Turner headline the projections at the shortstop position from a raw points perspective and I lean Lindor as he gets the much better matchup. He faces Carlos Rodon who continues to walk too many(4.02 BB/9) and has seen his K rate fall off the table after recording more than five strikeouts just once in his last five starts. He is also prone to giving up the long ball(19% HRFB rate) and has given up at least one in eight of his 12 starts this season. Good news for Lindor who has crushed lefties this season to the tune of a .374 wOBA and 132 wRC+. He is expensive on both sites but has a high floor and possibly the highest upside of all hitters at the position.
Zack Cozart FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.22

Cozart provides a nice discount on DraftKings and a huge discount on FanDuel which puts him at the top of the PTS/$ rankings tonight. From a consistency standpoint, he hasn't been the same hitter in the second half with an average 47 points lower but has provided very similar upside with a .391 wOBA(.395 first half) and a 140 wRC+(143 first half). I also mentioned earlier loving the matchup vs. Matt Harvey who only managed to make it through two innings in his return allowing seven earned runs. He makes a nice GPP play paired with Votto on DraftKings but is in play in all formats on FanDuel at a price just over the $3K mark.

Third Base

Mike Moustakas FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @KC
FD - 10.34 DK - 7.81

Moustakas is another Royals hitter who I like in all formats due to the sub $4K price on both sites which helps us fit one of the elite aces in our lineups. The lower prices on the Royals come from their bottom third ranking in overall offense but they do have a ton of pop in their lineup and it starts with Moose who has easily surpassed his career high and sits with 36 home runs this season. After some struggles near the end of August, Moustakas has started to heat up again with hits in three straight and five of his last six games with two doubles and a home run.

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - CIN (Mahle) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.9
Jose Reyes FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Mahle) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.52 DK - 8.8

Seeing as FanDuel and DraftKings forget to get together to discuss position eligibility, I list the Mets teammates together in the third base section. Cabrera is listed at 2B and SS on DraftKings and 3B on FanDuel while Reyes is listed at 3B and SS on DraftKings and SS only on Fanduel. No matter what site you are playing both are in play considering their mid-tier pricing. The matchup isn't one that stands out as rookie Tyler Mahle has been good in his first two starts allowing just three earned runs over 11 innings but has shown very little upside with a 8:4 strikeout to walk ratio. Reyes would be my choice for cash games as he has been very consistent lately with hits in 11 of his last 12 starts including four doubles, a home run, and 15 runs scored.

Also Consider: Cory Spangenberg(SD)

 

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4700 DK 5500
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 16.26 DK - 12.22

After losing four in a row and falling 7.5 games back in the National League wildcard race, it appears Giancarlo Stanton has only one thing mind. Hitting home runs and getting to Roger Maris hallowed number of 61. No not Bonds 73 or McGwire's 70 or 65 or Sosa's 66, 64, or 63 but the real home run record in mine and a lot of peoples eyes. He is just eight away from tying that number thanks to a monster month of August where he hit 18 home runs with 37 RBI. Stanton is also one of the most feared hitters in the league vs. southpaws with a .484 wOBA, 204 wRC+ and crazy .466 ISO. Make room for him in your lineups tonight, at least in GPP's.

Melky Cabrera FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @KC
FD - 9.7 DK - 7.63

Obviously, we are going to have to sacrifice using Stanton in cash games if we are planning on rostering Corey Kluber tonight. This is where Melky Cabrera comes in as he fits the same mold as his previously mentioned Royals teammates. They lack overall upside on a night to night basis but provide us with some nice salary relief and give us enough of a floor to rank near the top when looking at PTS/$ values. Melky has also been playing his best baseball down the stretch with a .308/.341/.492 slash line since the start of August with 13 multi hit games. He is safe in all formats.

Randal Grichuk FD 2900 DK 3800
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 9.86 DK - 7.63
Dexter Fowler FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 5.01 DK - 3.98

The Cardinals outfield duo of Grichuk and Fowler also come at value prices tonight but also come with a little more risk and make better GPP options. First of all, they have both shown reverse splits and have been better vs. righties and actually get a bit of a park downgrade going into Petco tonight. I am willing to live with those things tonight considering the matchup vs. Clayton Richard who has been a total gas can in the second half giving up three or more earned runs in eight of his 10 starts(5.43 ERA) with nine home runs against(23.7% HR/FB rate).

Also Consider: Austin Jackson(CLE), Ender Inciarte(ATL)

 

 

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