Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/5/17

Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.

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Justin Verlander FD 8600 DK 11500
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 36.01 DK - 23.79

Ok, this matchup isn't an easy one, but this FanDuel price just feels out of whack -- like it was set to the Verlander we saw in April, not the one who has pitched like an ace over the last six weeks or so. These ebbs and flows aren't unusual for Verlander in recent years, and his range of expected outcomes might be among the widest in the league. But while he's at the top of his form, it's not unreasonable to expect him to sustain it -- an anecdotal evidence, just look back to last season, when he was brutal for the first five weeks, then turned in a 2.42 ERA/3.21 FIP over the last five months. It's hard to be 100 percent confident that he'll be able to maintain his current level through the rest of the season, but it's also hard to ignore how good he's been lately: 2.32 ERA, 3.55 FIP, 3.40 xFIP, 10.6 Ks/9 over his last nine starts. The problem tonight is that the Mariners are a very good offense vs. RHP (5th in wRC) with a .343 wOBA and .187 ISO vs. RHP. That's probably enough to convince us to look elsewhere in the majority of our DK tourney lineups, but the FanDuel price is just too good to pass up for a guy who's been one of baseball's best pitchers in the second half.

Robert Stephenson FD 6700 DK 6800
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @CIN
FD - 24.77 DK - 16.66

To be honest, this spot would probably go to Danny Salazar if we knew he was going to get a full outing. But due to concern the Indians could be treating him gently, and in the interest of giving you a pivot off of chalky Michael Wacha, we decided to go further down the food chain. Stephenson's risky for a number of reasons: the ballpark plays like beer league softball yard, the Brewers have ample thump in their lineup, and, let's not forget, Stephenson hasn't actually been very good for most of the year. He walks too many guys and gives up too many homers -- a problem that might not go away as long as he's in Cincy and relying on fly ball outs -- and his 5.52 ERA is wholly supported by the underlying stats (5.50 FIP). That's the case against him, and it's substantial. In fact, if we end up with Stephenson in more than a couple of lineups, we'll probably be building at least one Brewers hedge stack, as well. The case in favor of Stephenson is thinner, and it's a textbook example of high-risk, high-reward. We'll start with the most obvious: dude can miss bats. He's got 9.51 Ks/9 in 58.1 IP this season, and he's struck out 18 in 11.2 IP over his last two starts. That's attractive, especially against the Brewers, who have six regulars with a +20 K% and three at +27%. And there's some pedigree here, too. Stephenson is a former first-round pick and was a top-20 overall prospect until sliding down the rankings in the last year or two. Maybe he's finally living up to the hype, or maybe it's just coincidence that his best starts came in back-to-back outings. Whatever the case, it's doubtful that Stephenson alone is going to carry you to GPP glory. Even in his good games, he's bound to give up a homer or two. But if he's on his game, he could return excellent SP2 value while allowing to pay big salaries elsewhere.

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