New York Yankees starting pitcher Luis Severino throws to the Texas Rangers during the first inning of a baseball game, Tuesday, April 26, 2016, in Arlington, Texas. (AP Photo/Tony Gutierrez)
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Opponent - DET (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 31.62 DK - 20.94
The holiday is bringing us a rare Monday with 15 games (split over two slates), and it's loaded with good-not-great arms. Bauer might be the most representative of the bunch, with legitimate K upside and significant risk in nearly equal measure. By most metrics, the 26-year-old is enjoying his best season so far in 2017, with 9.97 Ks/9 and a 3.73 xFIP. He still walks too many guys, though, so consistency isn't one of his selling points, but at these prices, I'm OK with that. And while a stiff breeze is blowing out in US Cellular today, the matchup looks favorable for Bauer. Lefties are the ones who have given him trouble this season (.213 ISO), but the White Sox don't have many guys who can do damage from that side of the plate. Their projected starters have a sub-.300 wOBA and a 25+ K% vs. RHP this season, so as long as Bauer can keep it out of the jet stream, he should be in a position to return nice value today.
Opponent - SD (Ray) Park - @LAD
FD - 34.6 DK - 22.77
Jose Berrios should get a lot of attention on the late slate, which makes sense. There's quite a bit of swing-and-miss in the Rays lineup, and Berrios has exciting stuff. But the pivot off of him here isn't just about game theory -- actually, the projection system prefers both Rich Hill and Robbie Ray over him without even taking price or potential ownership into the equation. Interestingly, it's not alone. Vegas also has Hill and Ray giving up fewer runs, and Berrios and the Twins are underdogs against Alex Cobb tonight. So we think the choice at SP1 comes down to the pitchers in the D-backs/Dodgers game, and we're giving Hill a slight edge -- mostly due to the fact that he doesn't have to face his teammates. Of course, the Diamondbacks also have some dangerous right-handed sticks, but Hill's curve-heavy repertoire is effective vs. righties, who have a .263 wOBA and .145 ISO against him this season. Obviously, Arizona roughed him up last week, but we're willing to overlook that for a couple of reasons: 1) Dodger Stadium is a much better place to pitch than Chase Field, and 2) Hill was coming off of the near-perfect game in the last outing. Aside from being an abnormally long outing for Hill, there was the un-quantifiable question of his state of mind after coming so close to history, yet walking away with a loss. We think it's safe to bet he'll be back to his usual self tonight, which is to say a guy with 11.43 Ks/9 and a 3.25 xFIP over his last 12 starts.
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SP sheet for today:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1w3qQXf_tsVdUj-Z7kPqiOYRY1BpOCPBtfLVWnHrgjA0/edit?usp=sharing