Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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There are things we are powerless to resist, and the combination of James Shields against a good lineup in a hitter's park with a 20 mph wind blowing out is near the top of that list. As we talked about last time Shields was on the hill, he's done a decent job of preventing the catastrophic meltdowns this season, but that doesn't change the fact that he's been one of baseball's worst starters, as evidenced by a 5.72 ERA and a 5.47 xFIP. And while he's given up more than four runs only four times this season, he's living dangerously virtually every time he's out there with 4.4 BBs/9, 2.2 HRs/9 and at least one HR allowed in 14 of 16 starts. Meanwhile, the Indians lineup is stocked with guys we're happy to stack with. Ramirez, Encarnacion, Bruce and Chisenhall all have ISOs over .260 vs RHP this season, and Lindor and Santana are both over .200. Also worth noting: lefties own a .315 ISO (!!) vs. Shields this season, and US Cellular is one of the best venues in baseball for HR factors.
Before we dive into the Brewers, we probably need to acknowledge the fact that baseball is being played in Coors Field today, so we've at least gotta think about both teams there. After due consideration, if we decide to fade (strong possibility), we're going to need to look for stacks that have the potential to keep pace in the event the Coors stacks go off. And when the question is which game is most likely to turn into a HR derby, the one being played in the Great American Ballpark is never a terrible answer. It's one of baseball's best launching pads, and with Homer Bailey on the hill, the Brewers are in good position to flex some muscle today. Each of their top six regulars have an ISO over .200 vs. RHP this season, and Bailey is struggling against pretty much everybody. Righties are doing the most damage (.434 wOBA, .208 ISO), but he's not faring much better against lefties (.366/.183) with a 13.7 K% and 12.3 BB%.
Ok, we don't love any of the stacking options on the late slate, but on the other hand, Andrew Cashner. That's really what's driving this choice, as well as a desire to fade the Red Sox, who will probably be pretty chalky. About Cashner: where to begin? He's somehow slithered through 2017 with a 3.30 ERA despite less fewer 5 Ks/9 and more than 3 BB/9. That kind of ratio just doesn't compute into success over the long term -- which is why Cashner's xFIP is nearly two runs higher -- so even though we're well into the red when stacking against him this season, we're willing to give it another shot. We're most interested in Atlanta's lefties, because Cashner's 57% ground ball rate vs. right-handed hitters is legitimately concerning, and SunTrust Park appears to favor left-handed power. Freddie Freeman is obviously the go-to building block in the Braves' lineup, but we do need to be aware that he's playing at less than 100 percent since coming back from a wrist injury a couple of months ago. Freeman himself has admitted he's lost strength in the wrist, and while it hasn't dampened his overall production too much (.375 wOBA, .226 ISO since his return on July 4), we probably shouldn't expect him to live up to the .314 ISO he owns vs. RHP this season.
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View Comments
Before I even read it, I knew the recommendation was going to be target Cashner! Targeting Cashner doesn't win. Every five days the system says Cashner's numbers are unsustainable, yet all he has done over his last nine games is sport a 2.58 ERA and won five of them. When it comes to Cashner, the system is seems to always be wrong. Regardless I still love your write ups. Keep up the good work guys!
It's not really about Cashner being the worst pitcher in the world. The only other options to stack against on the late slate are Adam Conley and R.A. Dickey. If you think Cashner is worlds above either of those guys, that's fine, but he's not.
Cashner is going to win a Gpp tonight for someone