Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/4/17

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Pitcher

Main

Carlos Martinez FD 9900 DK 11800 
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 35.11 DK - 23.2

Ugly is the only word to describe pitching today. The same can be said for both slates, but at least we have a few decent options in the afternoon. Carlos Martinez will open it up here against the Padres in Petco Park. As we know by now, the Padres are absolutely abysmal at home. They held a .303 wOBA since the break and are the exact definition of a lifeless offense. Carlos Martinez is a guy who many thought would take a step up this year and become one of the best pitchers in the league, but he didn't. Instead, he's been basically the same pitcher he was last year, obliterating righties and slightly struggling against righties. He is a very strong number 2 and he has the upside for a CGSO any start. There aren't many ways to go at pitcher here and Martinez is definitely on the safer side. His price is fine and he shouldn't be more than 25% owned.

Jake Arrieta FD 9900 DK 11100
Opponent - PIT (Kuhl) Park - @PIT
FD - 28.89 DK - 19.4

If you think Jose Pirela is Babe Ruth or want to fade Carlos Martinez for whatever other reason, Jake Arrieta is a fantastic pivot and some may argue he's the better play. There's not much you can predict from narratives, but if you've watched the last couple starts from Arrieta, something has clicked. Over his last 4 starts, he's allowed 2 runs and struck out 24. His velocity is also back up 1.5 MPH, so maybe he was coasting through the early part of the season or had a nagging injury. The other possibility is his last 2 months have been fraudulent and he's just average. I'm not putting my money on that theory. The numbers are very skewed by his early struggles, but Arrieta has still posted a .286 wOBA and 8.56 K/9. Arrieta isn't the same Cy Young arm he once was, but he's a lot closer to it than some may think. The Pirates are far better against southpaws and Arrieta should have no problem throwing a quality game. Chad Kuhl is on the other side of the diamond, so a win should be in the bag if he can go 5. Both Martinez and Arrieta are in play here and I really don't have a favorite.

Late

Dallas Keuchel FD 8900 DK 10600 
Opponent - SEA (Ramirez) Park - @SEA
FD - 29.08 DK - 19.42

Ugly was a nice word for this slate. There isn't a single guy you love at pitcher, but there are 2 worthy of consideration. 1 is Dallas Keuchel and the other is Jose Berrios. I'll be staying away from Berrios, as the combo of the hype and the Vegas line has me very worried. Don't get me wrong, Berrios is going to be an ace and he's extremely talented, but let's lower our expectations a bit. Instead, I'll hope Dallas Keuchel can throw a solid game in the spacious Safeco Field. The Mariners are much worse against lefties as keys bats Cano, Seager, Segura, and Gamel are all better against righties. They do still have Nelson Cruz and he is a behemoth against lefties. If Kuechel is able to work around him, I'm not too worried. On the season, Keuchel has statistically been one of the best pitchers in the league. He's deadly against lefties with a .186 wOBA and not much worse against righties at a .288. He strikes out just 8 batters per 9, but has an insane 22% hard contact rate. He's very safe and I'm not sure you can find another guy to lean on, so you don't really have an option. The Stros will put up runs and the win is a lock. No pitcher is safe on this slate, but Keuchel is light years ahead of the field in my opinion.

Catcher

Main

Alex Avila FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - PIT (Kuhl) Park - @PIT
FD - 9.41 DK - 6.97

Per usual, you don't have the greatest of selections here. If you wait until lineups come out, chances are you'll find a cheap backup that will be hitting 6th or 7th. If that's how you want to go, fine. If you want a catcher with some real safety and upside that isn't a million dollars,(looking at you, Gary) look towards Alex Avila. Avila and the Cubs face off with Chad Kuhl today, who's a very underwhelming rightly. In 79 innings against lefties this season, he's allowed a .375 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. Alex Avila nearly matches him with a .389 wOBA against righties, so this obviously sets up quite well. He's hit well as a Cubbie and has taken full advantage of the bats in front of him who are constantly on-base. Personally, I won't be going elsewhere in cash games and the bulk of tournaments.

Late

Chris Iannetta FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - LAD (Hill) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.28 DK - 6.91

I don't like this and I don't expect you to, either. However, there isn't a guy on the slate I could have put here with confidence. Your only real options are Iannetta, Wieters, and Chirinos. Everyone else either stinks, is in a bad match-up, or both. Chirinos and Wieters are fine, but nothing more than longshots. Iannetta is an actual solid hitter against lefties and has been manning the 2 hole against them. When you're sitting between the likes of Paul Goldschmidt, Jake Lamb, and A.J. Pollock, you have to pay attention. Especially when that guy is a catcher. Iannetta has deserved it, however, at least this season. He's held a .413 wOBA against southpaws and has done a great job of dropping his K% to below 25%. It may not seem like a great thing to K 25% of the time, but it is when you've been at 34%. Rich Hill is certainly a quality pitcher and one you won't often pick on. With that being said, we know the damage this D-Backs team can do against lefties. Vegas has them putting up quite a few runs and we know the Dodgers have a VERY quick leash on Hill after his extended start last week. Iannetta makes a lot of sense here, but don't get me wrong. I don't like it in the slightest.

First Base

Main

Carlos Santana FD 3900 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.63 DK - 9.47
Edwin Encarnacion FD 4200 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.11 DK - 10.53

It took long enough. It seems like James Shields is only on the mound when I'm writing this piece, which is great. It just makes it a lot easier. At this point, you know how bad James Shields is. Let's get these numbers out of the way. Against righties, he's fine with a .300 wOBA. He still has HR issues against them, but you don't need to go out of your way. Against lefties is a whole different story. Through just 45 innings, he's allowed 15!!! home runs and a .424 wOBA. You should definitely go out of your way for the lefties. At first base, we're looking at Carlos Santana and Edwin Encarnacion. Santana is definitely the preferred option as the lefty, but Encarnacion can smack 2 homers without blinking an eye. Anyways, Santana has posted a .360 wOBA against righties and he has plenty of power. The Indians are the top offense on this slate and they're implied to put up nearly 6 runs. I wouldn't be surprised if that numbers over 6 by the time first pitch comes. We won't look at all of the Indians that are in play here, but just know that you can truly go to any of the lefties.

Late

Freddie Freeman FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.25 DK - 10.15

If you can pay up for just 1 bat on this late slate, this might the guy. Though there are some solid 1B options, I'll take an underpriced Freddie Freeman at home against a bad righty 100/100 times. In my opinion, he's the best hitter in baseball against righties. The numbers don't disagree, either. He's held a .441 wOBA against them and has hit 18 homers. I can't even begin to fathom what would happen if he was surrounded by some real talent that forces pitchers to give him respect. Either way, he's getting pitches to hit and he's taking full advantage. Andrew Cashner has been decent on the year (.310 wOBA), but a .229 BABIP has me extremely wary. I know it's late in the season, but we're seeing a case of Ervin Santana here. Cashner is bad against lefties and he will inevitably struggle against them. He has in past years and hasn't changed his approach. When you combine that with the BABIP, there is no other explanation. Freeman is the top 1B on the slate and he won't break the bank.

Second Base

Main

Neil Walker FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.39

There are a few solid ways to go at 2B, so nobody should be too popular to use. Neil Walker is coming in as our favorite and it makes a lot of sense. He's a switch-hitter, but not really. He mashes righties to a .360 wOBA and has the power to park one in the seats with ease. He hit 23+ home runs in 2 of the last 3 seasons. The Reds will trot out Homer Bailey for another start, after once again struggling against the lowly Mets. He will now face a Brewers offense that can do real damage in Great American Ballpark. There's a reason his name is "Homer" Bailey, and it's not because he's a big fan. Against lefties, Bailey is one of the worst pitchers in the league. He's allowed a .420 wOBA and a ludicrous 51.5% hard contact rate. That's a Kris Bryant at the plate. Walker is way too cheap on both FD and DK and as long as he stays in the top of the order, he's the top play at 2B. While we don't really need the savings, you will still have to pay down for a bat or two, even with a cheap set of pitching. Walker is a really great way to do that while still getting the production of a $3.5k bat.

Late

Eduardo Nunez FD 4100 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.14 DK - 9.55

Eduardo Nunez has been what most call a "spark plug" since getting traded to the Red Sox. Unfortunately, they've lost the joyful and very-skilled Pablo Sandoval. I'm not sure who's going to do nothing anymore. Nunez has been a vacuum at 3rd and his bat has been nothing short of great. He's posted a .340 combined wOBA on the season and has the ability to hit a homer and steal a bag. He'll be leading the offense off and should get 5 at-bats. He faces off with the Blue Jays and J.A Happ, who isn't anything to write home about. We'll dig in later, but just know he should have some trouble in this match-up. The Red Sox are projected to put up nearly 6 runs. It seems like a lot, but I do expect to see a crooked number on the scoreboard at the end of the game. This is a team you can stack and I like Hanley Ramirez a lot there. Getting back to Nunez, his price is fair and the match-up + ballpark is great. 2nd base is pretty ugly on this slate and Nunez is very safe with built-in upside.

Shortstop

Main

Francisco Lindor FD 4100 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.78

Shortstop on an entire day is pretty bad. It's a bit more tolerable on the earlier slate, but you still don't have any cheaper guys that stand out. Luckily for us, James Shields is pitching. When in doubt, you know where to look. Shields, as we mentioned, is probably the worst pitcher in baseball against lefties. He's allowed an HR every 3 innings. That is simply unheard of and nearly unbelievable. That's if I haven't watched every single one of his starts. He typically throws a few good sliders and you'll hear the analyst say something like "Wow, it looks like Shields really has his stuff tonight." Then you'll look back and he'll give up a dinger or two or three, followed by another couple innings of trouble, before getting pulled around the 5th or 6th. You then get the White Sox bullpen, which happens to hold the 2nd worst xFIP in baseball since the break. The Indians are a team you will need exposure to and Lindor gives it to you at a weak position. If you can afford it, I wouldn't look any further.

Late

Trea Turner FD 4300 DK 5300
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.69 DK - 8.9
Wilmer Difo FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 3.65 DK - 3.12

This later slate makes SS on the day-slate look glorious. We can't be picky here and these 2 options come in at extremely different price tags. You can definitely make one of them work. We haven't touched on the Nationals bats yet, but they're arguably the top offense on this later slate. Adam Conley is a decent pitcher, but the Nats do damage against righties and have a potent lineup. Treat Turner is the head of the beast and should have Difo right behind him in the 2 hole. Turner is obviously a much better hitter and he has real upside on the bases as well. Difo is a pure punt and a guy you hope gets on-base and finds a way to get driven in. You hope it happens twice in tournaments. Either way, you get a guy at the top of the Nationals order at an extremely weak position. If you do want to go elsewhere, Elvis Andrus is good against the knuckleball and should go relatively ignored. Nobody at this position is head and shoulders above the rest, so go with a guy if you get a gut feeling. It could also pay off to just go contrarian in a good ballpark and hope for a lucky dinger.

Third Base

Main

Mike Moustakas FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - DET (Lewicki) Park - @DET
FD - 11.58 DK - 8.75

Third base is probably the deepest position on this main/early slate. You have elite options like Travis Shaw and Jose Ramirez, and cheaper options like Pablo Sandoval in Coors and Nick Castellanos. In the middle of the pack, you run into Mike Moustakas. We haven't touched on the Royals yet and I don't think they see much ownership, although a 5.15 implied run total warrants it. Artie Lewicki sounds like a 1924 pitcher out of St.Louis, but I guess he's not. He's a 25-year-old righty who will be making his debut with the Tigers. He's been pretty good in the minors this year, but hasn't been special. He holds 4 pitches and they aren't very good. A 94 MPH fastball and 90 MPH slider is what he'll rely on against righties. Against lefties, he will have to go with the change and curve, which are not good at all. A scout described them as "fringe AA pitches". Mike Moustakas is a dynamic left-handed bat and he has just as much upside as the top dogs with 36 homers on the year. He is the beating heart of this lifeless Royals team and he'll do his best to lead them into some runs in this one. You can definitely go with any of the other guys mentioned. They all have merit and I'm willing to bet more than one has a solid game. With that being said, it's probably a spot you can't miss in tournaments. That's why I'll be going with Moustakas and Ramirez.

Late

Anthony Rendon FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - MIL (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.4 DK - 8.05

I get a little bit giddy every time I get to roster Anthony Rendon against a lefty. Call me crazy, but he's one of the best in the league against southpaws and nobody seems to care. On a normal 15-game slate, Rendon will be under 20% owned against a bad lefty when he should be closer to 35%. You may see a higher number on a 5-game slate, but you get the point. To give a comp, he's just as good against lefties as Jake Lamb is against righties. On the season, he's posted a .438 wOBA and has 6 homers in just under 100 plate appearances. It's definitely not just a fluke either, putting up a .407 wOBA since 2015. He's 100% the real deal and you want exposure to him against southpaws. Adam Conley has a place in this league, but he's been nothing special against righties with a .340 wOBA and a very underwhelming 6 K/9. Rendon is the top play on the late 5 game slate and I'm not sure I'll have exposure anywhere else.

Outfield

Main

Bradley Zimmer FD 2400 DK 4100 
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.09 DK - 8.45
Jay Bruce FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.76

To start, if Bradley Zimmer stays in the 3 hole, plug him in on FanDuel and move on. Do not get cute. They have yet to update his pricing and it will come soon in the form of $1k+. He's a very solid hitter against lefties with a .321 wOBA and has been a bit unlucky as well at a .260 BABIP. Bruce on the other hand, is a pure power bat. He's swinging for the fences on every swing and has a great chance to connect against James Shields. Put it this way. If I had to pick 1 starting pitcher in the majors for Bruce to hit a homer off of, it would be James Shields. He's allowed 15 homers in less than 50 innings against lefties and has backed it up with a putrid 424 wOBA. The Indians are the top offense on this slate and both Zimmer and Bruce make for great plays in both cash games and tournaments. I expect both to be popular, but that's fine. I'm not willing to fade this team against this bad of a pitcher.

Brandon Nimmo FD 2700 DK 2700
Opponent - PHI (Leiter Jr.) Park - @NYM
FD - 8.88 DK - 7.01

If you need a cost-effective bat in the OF and don't want a 7 or 8 hitter, Nimmo is the man. Nimmo has been in the 4 hole against righties and has a price that would never suggest it. He's been really good and while the numbers are way too small to judge anything, he was expected to do this. He has been one of the bigger prospects in the organization for some time now and is just finally getting his shot to show what he has for more than 4 or 5 games. I don't think he will go anywhere and could actually force himself into a starting role in 2018, next to Conforto and Cespedes. He faces off with Mark Leiter today, who's very bleh. He's allowed a .310 wOBA on a .231 BABIP to lefties, so things are on the way down. The Mets are supposed to put up close to runs and Nimmo should have a role in the damage. He will be a little popular, but I don't see anything crazy with the other options that are cheaper and somewhat enticing.

Late

Chris Young FD 2200 DK 3300
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @BOS
FD - 9.81 DK - 7.54
Rajai Davis FD 2500 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.72 DK - 9.65
Mookie Betts FD 5200 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Happ) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.89 DK - 10.4

We touched on the Red Sox earlier with Eduardo Nunez, but didn't go too in-depth on J.A. Happ. That's because there's not much to say. He's a typical soft-tossing lefty that struggles against righties and dominates lefties. He moves into Fenway Park and should have some trouble with the green monster, let alone the 3 OF's who obliterate southpaws. The Red Sox picking up Rajai Davis is a very smart move and one that helps their chances a lot in the playoffs. Jackie Bradley Jr. is a great defender, but a liability at the plate against lefties. Instead,  You can throw Davis in there and get similar fielding with a very ++ bat. He will probably lead us off and make for one of the safer plays on the entire day. You then get to Mookie Betts, the superstar. He's the must play if you're stacking the Red Sox and the bat that propels the entire team. He's just as good against lefties as he is against righties and has as much upside as anyone on the plate. The biggest mystery of the bunch is Chris Young and that's only because h may be in the bottom of the order. He still hits lefties extremely well and the green monster doesn't care where you are in the order. The Red Sox and Nationals are 2 teams you'll want exposure to on this late slate.

Jayson Werth FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.63 DK - 7.49
Howie Kendrick FD 3000 DK 4700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @MIA
FD - 9.85 DK - 8.06

We'll cap the night off in the OF with our favorite team on the late slate, the Nationals. The Nationals face off with Adam Conley, who's face is in the dictionary next to "meh". That's no shot to Conley, but he's just nothing to avoid. He's allowed a .340 wOBA to right-handers and has struggled a lot more on the road, with Marlins Park being very pitcher-friendly. The Nationals offense is one that should give Conley a ton of trouble. They are able to fit at least 7 righties and Vegas currently has the implied total at 5.63. Both Jayson Werth and Howie Kendrick will be in the lower half of the lineup, but in a perfect spot to drive in some runs. Both Werth and Kendrick are far better against lefties and will be 2 bats the Nationals rely on down the stretch and into the playoffs. I do prefer whoever is higher in the order, but can go either way as long as neither of them are in the 8 hole. All in all, the Nationals are going to put up runs and these guys will have an opportunity to drive some in.

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