Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 9/2/17

Welcome friends. The unofficial last weekend of summer is upon us. The pennant chases are heating up for some teams while others are calling up young studs to get an idea what they have to work with next season. Today our cup runneth over with a jam packed 17(!!!) games of MLB action to satisfy your DFS needs. We've got double header action in Houston and San Diego and just to keep us on our toes pricing on DraftKings changes for players based on the slate. We've got aces galore sprinkled throughout the day, with plenty of the usual suspects in good spots at the plate, so what are we still doing up here? Let's move on down to the picks!!

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Pitcher

EARLY
Corey Kluber FD 11300 DK 13200
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 47.89 DK - 31.75
He's going to cost you, but for the implied safety it's worth it. On the early slate no one comes close to Corey Kluber who would have been in play regardless just based on what he has done so far this season, but now add in the fact that he is facing a Tigers team that has thrown up the white flag on the season, trading away the only real threat in their lineup. Kluber was rolling along since his return from the DL in early June, racking up the K's start after start, though he's cooled off some in August, recording double digit strikeouts just once in his last four starts. The Tigers are an average offense, striking out 21.4% of the time, with a .325 wOBA and 100 wRC+, and those numbers are with Upton in the lineup. The early rumblings from Vegas have the Indians as -301 favorites today, with those odds, and his propensity to stick around late into games, Kluber's all but guaranteed a win and is the top play in the six game early slate.

Charlie Morton FD 8500 DK 9100
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @HOU
FD - 36.15 DK - 23.72
If you're one of those "the price is just too high" types, and I don't fault you if you are, then look to Charlie Morton in game one of the double header between the Astros and Mets. Houston's a -245 favorite, which while not as impressive as Kluber's opening line, is respectable in it's own right. The Mets are another team that don't exactly strikeout a ton, but they also don't face a pitcher like Morton every day. Morton has come into his own this season with the Astros fanning nearly 10 batters per nine innings pitched. The Mets also are a just below average offense combining for a .319 team wOBA and 97 wRC+. MinuteMaid Park also just happens to be the top pitching environment going today. With the savings in salary I'll have a lot of Morton in tournaments, and can see a case for using him as a cash pivot as well.

LATE
Max Scherzer FD 11700 DK 13500
Opponent - MIL (Woodruff) Park - @MIL
FD - 43.68 DK - 28.79
In the early slate we have a potential Cy Young candidate in Kluber, on the evening set we have the guy that is pretty much a lock for NL Cy Young in Max Scherzer. The Nationals take on the Brewers in Milwaukee tonight which fills me with all kinds of good feelings as we have the second best strikeout pitcher in the game and the offense that strikes out more than any other. Do I need to say any more about this? Alright then, over his last three starts Mad Max has averaged seven innings, 1.67 walks, 9.67 K's, 1.67 earned runs, and all three were quality starts while picking up the win last time out against the Marlins. Even as the most expensive arm on the day, I love Scherzer in cash.

Chris Archer FD 10800 DK 11200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 40.72 DK - 26.74
The only thing that would keep me from 100% exposure to Max on the main slate is the substantial savings that come with Chris Archer. It's a close one as Archer is striking out just one less batter per 9 than Scherzer, and the White Sox are a top ten strikeout offense, whiffing 22.8% of the time. Both are pretty much even in the eyes of the oddsmakers, and Guaranteed Rate Field presents Archer with a slightly better park factor. You can probably split exposure to both of these guys in cash and feel pretty confident, while I love the upside for Archer in tournaments based on the price difference.

Brad Peacock FD 8700 DK 9900
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @HOU
FD - 35.09 DK - 23.04
Let's go back to Houston, where in game two the Astros will send Brad Peacock to the hill to face the Mets. I like peacock more paired with Archer on DraftKings, because the bats will be tough to come by pairing him with Max, which isn't saying it can't be done, but $3325 per bat on DraftKings can be a risky proposition. In his favor, Peacock will face the same offense we discussed above with Morton, and Peacock has dazzled this season with 10 wins in 16 starts, 11.86 K/9 and 3.63 xFIP. Peacock is definitely an excellent choice in tournaments on FanDuel that allows you to be free and loose in your bat selection, and as I said before, pairs nicely with Archer on DraftKings.

Catcher

EARLY
Alex Avila FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @CHC
FD - 9.89 DK - 7.33
Anytime I can get a catcher hitting in the top two thirds of the order at bottom tiered pricing, I am all for it. Since being dealt to the Cubs from Detroit Avila has hit in the five or six hole in all but two of his starts. Today he'll step in to the box against Lucas Sims bringing his 4.13 ERA and 5.50 xFIP to Wrigley. Avila has a .385 wOBA against right handed pitching this season with all 14 of his home runs coming against the split. He's my go to for all formats on the early set.

LATE
Robinson Chirinos FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.02 DK - 7.64
If you've been here long enough, you know batting order is a big piece of what we look at when coming up with these picks in our projection system, so for a backstop that generally hits in the eight or nine hole to show solid projections such as Robinson Chirinos does here is pretty impressive. Primarily it speaks to the reliability of Chirinos, who despite batting at the bottom of the Texas order has been a consistent fantasy performer reaching base safely in 17 straight games, when he's not getting hits, he's drawing walks, and the peripherals are there as well as he has 5 RBI and 11 runs scored in the stretch. It's not often we will recommend a bottom of the order guy this highly, but for the implied safety, Chirinos is a solid play that won't break your bank.

First Base

EARLY
Edwin Encarnacion FD 4100 DK 4700
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 13.8 DK - 10.3
Edwin Encarnacion has been bringing the lumber lately. despite his .246 average, Encarnacion finished out August with a .387 wOBA for the month, bringing his season total to .366 which is right on par with his career numbers. In just the past week he has hit three home runs, six RBI and eight runs scored. Today he'll take on Jordan Zimmermann who has completely lost whatever it was that had him dominating in Washington for all of those years. His 6.08 ERA is a career worst as is his 5.47 xFIP. Encarnacion can have the tendency to be boom or bust, but lately the boom has been outright explosive.

Yuli Gurriel FD 3400 DK 4100
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.74 DK - 9.16
Yuli Gurriel left the game on Wednesday with knee soreness and sat out on Thursday as a precaution. The hope is he is good to go for today as the Astros prepare to take on the Mets in a double header. If he does make his return in game one this afternoon, he's an excellent play against Matt Harvey hitting .351 against the split, and provides some salary relief in a pivot down from Encarnacion.

LATE
Kendrys Morales FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.88 DK - 8.18
Kendrys Morales is on track to put up solid numbers in his first season in Toronto. The problem we face is that he has been rather erratic at the plate which means on any given day his daily numbers can be a let down. Through the last few weeks of August more often than not he has not disappointed though, with hits in eight of his last ten and multi hit showings in four of those, including a three home run derby Thursday against these Orioles. At his price point, Morales is an excellent tournament play worth locking in to your cash lineups as well.

Albert Pujols FD 3100 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.39 DK - 9.54
Albert Pujols is showing there is still something left in the tank. Now in his seventeenth season, Pujols has put up 82.8 FanDuel points in just his past two games with six hits, two home runs and a double, eight RBI and four runs scored. Granted, that's far from the norm with Pujols, and he can just as easily go out there today and do nothing more than draw a walk, but I'll take the chance on him today, particularly against A.J. griffin. Griffin has been less than impressive from both sides of the plate this season, with a .353 wOBA against right handed hitters and is allowing a whopping 2.42 HR/9. I'll rock with Pujols all day long.

Second Base

EARLY
Logan Forsythe FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.88
In the other double header the Dodgers will play two with the Padres at PetCo Park. In game one San Diego will send southpaw Clayton Richard to the hill. Richard carries a 4.96 ERA and .347 BABIP, and has been terrible against the split allowing a .375 wOBA to right handed hitters. He's also allowing a 20.6 HR/FB rate which is pretty remarkable for a pitcher that calls PetCo home. Forsythe has had one of the less remarkable campaigns for the NL West leading Dodgers, his homer totals are down but he has been solid versus lefties with a .390 wOBA and is priced at a point that allows us to spend up in spots where it's necessary.

LATE
Rougned Odor FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @TEX
FD - 10 DK - 8.05
Rougned Odor hasn't had the most memorable of seasons to this point, his wOBA is (well) below .300 for the first time in his career, his average and BABIP are also significantly below his career numbers. There was reason to be optimistic that things were finally starting to click when he posted his best month of the season in July with a season high .375 wOBA, though it dropped back off in August. Despite that, we want to look at Odor for a couple of reasons, first off, he is facing Ricky Nolasco and his splits against right handed pitching is much better as he sports a .303 wOBA. Second, the Rangers are projected for 5.4 runs, one of the higher totals on the slate, so it bodes well that he will be a contributing factor in the outcome. Finally there's Nolasco himself. Now in his twelfth season, Nolasco, who was never lights out, has clearly lost any stuff he may have had early on in his career. Through 27 starts he has only six wins, a 5.09 ERA and a 4.61 xFIP. There's some risk, but not enough to scare me off of Odor at this price point.

Josh Harrison FD 3200 DK 3500
Opponent - CIN (Mahle) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.54
Josh Harrison will face off with Tyler Mahle today making his second career start. Mahle did nothing to wow us in his debut against the Pirates last weekend, allowing three runs on four hits and four walks through five innings. Harrison has been quiet at the plate with just two hits in his last five games, following a six game hit streak, but the seventh year second baseman is still sporting a .332 wOBA with 16 home runs, he scored off a double last night and will look to start a new streak today against the rookie.

Shortstop

EARLY
Paul DeJong FD 3300 DK 3000
Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @SF
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.02
The Cardinals rookie shortstop has been stuffing the stat sheet all season long. Through 80 games, he has 20 home runs, only two at the position have more, his .362 wOBA is sixth best at the position, and his .256 ISO is second. Today he'll take on Chris Stratton making his sixth career start. Stratton has looked sharp early on, but it's still too early to determine what he is, while DeJong has been showing us what he is since his debut in May, and despite it all, the sites keep him priced in the mid tier range making him a tremendous bargain.

LATE
Francisco Lindor FD 4300 DK 5000
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 13.14 DK - 10.55
For his price, I'd generally feel better playing Francisco Lindor against a southpaw who he has dominated against during the 2017 campaign, but we have already established that Jordan Zimmermann has fallen off a metaphorical pitching cliff this season, and is open season to target him particularly with the solid bats of the Cleveland starting nine. Lindor leads all shortstops in total raw points projected on the day, and while the upside may be limited, a batter with hits in seven of his last eight games, including five multi-hit performances, and three home runs in that stretch against a pitcher just struggling to keep his spot on the roster at this point, is a solid play in all formats.

Third Base

EARLY
Kris Bryant FD 4600 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.75 DK - 10.53
Kris Bryant was good through the first half of the season, and has really turned things up since the All Star Break, In the second half of the season, his wOBA is up 25 points from the first half and his average has risen 69 points, so even as the costliest player at the hot corner Bryant is well worth the price of admission. Particularly today against Lucas Sims, who will find himself totally outclassed in this much up against Bryant who has solid reverse splits, sporting a .394 wOBA against right handers.

Justin Turner FD 3600 DK 4400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 11.24 DK - 8.65
Justin Turner hit a very un-Justin Turner skid last week going 1 for 16 in a four game stretch against the Pirates and Brewers, but seems to have sorted things out with hits in five straight games including three doubles with two walks, three runs and an RBI. He'll look to keep the cylinders firing in a double shot with the Padres today. In game one he'll take on Clayton Richard who we covered above on Logan Forsythe. Turner has ridiculous splits against lefties, with a .491 wOBA and .331 ISO. I'll split my cash exposure between Bryant and Turner based on how the salary restraints of the rest of my lineups, but in tournaments I'll have a ton of Turner.

LATE
Josh Donaldson FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.04
On the evening slate we have the Don. Josh Donaldson was a letdown last night against Kevin Gausman going hitless in 6 plate appearances with just a walk, but I'm going right back to him tonight as the match up is just as good if not better against Wade Miley. Miley has been just short of terrible this season with a 4.99 ERA and 4.58 xFIP giving up a 17.6 hr/fb rate while Donaldson is coming off his best month yet putting up a .459 wOBA in August. I'll have the Don everywhere.

Outfield

EARLY
George Springer FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.55 DK - 10.52
Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4100
Opponent - NYM (Harvey) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.78 DK - 10.04
So we already covered Gurriel and now we're going to look at a couple of the Astros outfielders against Matt Harvey. The Astros bats can be considered in the evening slate as well during game two against Seth Lugo, just remember the pricing on DraftKings will be different. For our focus here on the early slate we look to the table setter and the cleanup of the Astros roster. George Springer has been solid through his fourth season posting a career high slash line of .290/.368/.540 and a career high .383 wOBA. His 29 home runs through 113 games, ties a career high he set last season through 162 games. Then we have Josh Reddick, who has solid splits with a .349 wOBA and .313 BABIP against right handed pitchers this season with all but one of his home runs coming off the split. The Astros are tied with Cleveland for the highest run total of the early set, so either as part of a stack or just as stand alone plays if you want to get your Houston exposure, Springer and Reddick are excellent plays in all formats.

LATE
Nomar Mazara FD 3400 DK 3800
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.59 DK - 8.96
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.67 DK - 9.92
In case we haven't picked on Ricky Nolasco enough, let's pop on out to the Rangers outfield and give some consideration to Nomar Mazara and Shin-Soo Choo. Mazara has solid splits, hitting right handers to the tune of a .342 wOBA, with hits in eight of his last ten including four doubles, Choo meanwhile, ranks among the top outfielders in the game with a .342 wOBA and hits in 5 straight games including two home runs. Nolasco will have his hands full with the lefty heavy Rangers lineup, and the top of the order Choo and cleanup hitting Mazara are musts in a Texas stack, and excellent cash options.

Mike Trout FD 4800 DK 5600
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 16.17 DK - 12.62
If I'm paying up for just one bat today, it's Mike Trout. Trout missed significant time on the DL and yet still is putting up some of the top numbers in just about every offensive category you can name. He owns a .327/.459/.667 slash line, .456 wOBA 194 wRC+, .340 ISO. Even with the missed time, he's ranked fourteenth among outfielders with 27 home runs, and is my pick for home run of the night against A.J. Griffin. The system gives Trout the top raw point projection of any position player on the day and with good reason. I'll have him in all of my lineups, and suggest you do as well.

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