Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/31/17

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Pitcher

Early Slate

Jacob deGrom FD 10400 DK 12300
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @CIN
FD - 34.95 DK - 23.18

There is no clear #1 favorite today, at least from an odds standpoint, so I will be leaning on the most talented pitcher on the slate. The ballpark definitely presents some risk to deGrom's 15.9% HR/FB rate but Greinke is actually in a worse spot pitching to the Dodgers in Chase Field. I will side with deGrom and his bigger upside as he has struck out at least eight batters in seven of his nine starts in the second half and sits with an elite 10.95 K/9 rate and 13.5% swinging strike rate. With the lack of safety at the position, I am geared towards GPP only this afternoon but if I was playing cash games deGrom would be my top choice.

Main Slate

Gio Gonzalez FD 9300 DK 11900
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 31.92 DK - 21.11

Madison Bumgarner sits atop the salary on both sites tonight but I just don't feel totally comfortable with him in cash games since he has returned. The K rate has dropped by just over a run and a half since his 2016 season and he is giving up a home run per start since his return. Don't get me wrong, I will be using him in GPP's but for cash games, I will turn to Gio Gonzalez tonight. The upside isn't incredible with a slightly above average K rate(8.11 K/9) but he has been very consistent allowing more than two earned runs just once in eight starts since the All Star Break. The park is definitely a downgrade but he does get a nice boost as the Brewers have struck out 28% of the time over the last 14 days and 26.5% of the time vs. left-handed pitching.

Catcher

Early Slate

Omar Narvaez FD 2200 DK 2100
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 6.49 DK - 5.05
Kevan Smith FD 2500 DK 2800
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 4.05 DK - 3.13

If we are paying up for one of the two high-priced pitchers today we are going to have to find a couple value plays and the catcher position is always my first place to look. Today I list the White Sox catchers who both come with punt prices on both sites. It was Narvaez who got the call last night for the Pale Hose so I am assuming it will be Kevan Smith today. That is good news as he has been having a terrific August with a .315/.356/.537 slash line with two home runs and 11 RBI.

Main Slate

J.T. Realmuto FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @MIA
FD - 10.36 DK - 8.35

Gary Sanchez not only tops the raw points but he also tops the salary tonight. Despite his huge power upside, I just can't pay up with his reverse splits vs. one of the top pitchers on the slate in Eduardo Rodriguez. Enter J.T. Realmuto who comes at an affordable price on both sites, especially FanDuel, and allows us to easily pay up for one of the top pitchers without sacrificing too many bats. He broke out of a slump yesterday with three hits and will get a nice matchup tonight vs. Ben Lively who strikes out less than five batters per nine and enters tonight with a 4.36 ERA and even worse 5.64 xFIP on the season.

Also Consider: Christian Vazquez(BOS)

First Base

Early Slate

Jose Abreu FD 3700 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.41 DK - 8.69

I just can't help myself from targeting against Bartolo Colon whether it's the White Sox or not, especially considering I like every other pitcher for one reason or another. That means they will be chalky for sure making them a fade candidate in GPP's but there is no better choice for cash games. Look up consistency in the baseball encyclopedia and you will find Abreu's picture as he has now put up four straight years to start his career with 25+ home runs, 65+ runs, and 80+ RBI. He has also been tearing it up in August with a .404 wOBA, 157 wRC+ with seven home runs, 12 RBI, and 18 runs scored. Pretty nice totals from a team in the bottom of the league in offense.

Also Consider: Yuli Gurriel(HOU)
Main Slate

Anthony Rizzo FD 4700 DK 5600
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @CHC
FD - 13.45 DK - 10.24

So far the theme of this article is players who have been killing it in August. Rizzo is another one of those players as he is playing his best ball of the season right now with an elite .359/.432/.612 slash line with six home runs, 27 RBI, and 21 runs scored. And before you try and discount him due to the lefty/lefty matchup, consider that he has been stronger vs. southpaws with a.396 wOBA and 144 wRC+. There are enough values out there tonight to grab a top pitcher and still fit Rizzo into your lineups.

Also Consider: Chris Davis(BAL)

Second Base

Early Slate

Yolmer Sanchez FD 3500 DK 3800
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 7.77 DK - 6.39

You guessed it, another White Sox hitter but I promise this is the last one until the stacks article. Sanchez comes with a very attractive price tag on both sites thanks to him bouncing around the lineup all season but has spent each of the last two games in the two hole and entered Wednesday night with a five game hit streak and has driven in 18 runs in the month of August. Again, it comes down to the fact there are seven decent pitchers on the mound and.....Bartolo Colon. Sanchez is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Roughned Odor(TEX)

Main Slate

Eduardo Nunez FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - NYY (Sabathia) Park - @NYY
FD - 9.75 DK - 8.36

I have come to the conclusion that I am a sucker for targeting old overweight pitchers. First, it was Colon on the early slate and now Sabathia who has actually been pretty decent this season(3.82 ERA), in his defense, but has still given up the long ball(14.7% HR/FB rate) and four or more earned runs in three of his last five starts. For Nunez, he has been knocked down to the two-hole after the Sox acquired Rajai Davis to occupy the leadoff spot but that doesn't kill his value. He has been consistent all season with a .313/.342/.461 slash line with 11 long balls, 53 RBI, and he has also stolen 21 bases. Safe in all formats.

Shortstop

Early Slate

Elvis Andrus FD 3800 DK 4300
Opponent - HOU (McHugh) Park - @HOU
FD - 8.97 DK - 7.65

The matchup isn't the greatest but it's a small slate and I promised no more White Sox in the article so here we are. The good news is that Andrus has been much more effective vs. right-handed pitching this season with a .356 wOBA and 119 wRC+ with 55 RBI and 68 runs scored. It also helps that he has been red hot as well with hits in five straight and nine of his last 11 games including six multi-hit efforts. That is more than enough to take on the risk against McHugh.

Also Consider: Jose Reyes(NYM)

Main Slate

Wilmer Difo FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @MIL
FD - 8.78 DK - 7.52

After spending two games down in the order for the Nats Difo returned to the two-hole and continued his hot hitting. With a two hit game last night he now has hits in eight straight and 10 of his last 12 games including six multi-hit efforts, four doubles, a triple and nine runs scored. That is enough production that we should once again see him near the top of the PTS/$ ranks at the position tonight making him in play in all formats.

Also Consider: Tim Beckham(BAL)

Third Base

Early Slate

Alex Bregman FD 4100 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.5 DK - 9.13

The price has climbed north of the $4K mark on both sites but for good reason. Bregman has come on very strong in the second half of his first full major league season with an elite .346/.406/.615 slash line. He has also recorded hits in nine of his last 11 games with seven of those being multi-hit efforts. More good news as he has also been much better vs. left-handed pitching with a .415 wOBA and 166 wRC+. Safe in all formats if you are paying up at the position.

**Update- Nick Martinez is starting**

Also Consider: Justin Turner(LAD)

Josh Donaldson FD 3400 DK 4800
Opponent - BAL (Hellickson) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.49 DK - 9.38

After struggling with an injury early in the year, Donaldson has come on strong in August and trails only Giancarlo Stanton in home runs with 12 in the month. He will get one more chance to add to that total tonight and gets a great matchup vs. Jeremy Hellickson who not only has given up seven bombs in his last three starts but has also given up the sixth most homers by a starter this season.

Also Consider: Kris Bryant(CHC), Anthony Rendon(WSH)

Outfield

Early Slate

George Springer FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.75 DK - 9.9
Josh Reddick FD 3700 DK 4100
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @HOU
FD - 4.81 DK - 3.78

For the early slate, I really like pairing the Astros outfield combo of Springer and Reddick as they take on Cole Hamels. The record(9-2) has been sparkling this season for Hamels but he is walking just under three batters per nine and has seen his K rate drop in the mid fives per nine innings. Springer is in the elite price tier and has only recorded three multi hit games in August but that should help drive his ownership down even on a small slate. Reddick, on the other hand, is cheaper and has been playing well lately from the cleanup spot with hits in six of his last seven and before you discount the lefty/lefty matchup consider he has hit southpaws well this year with a .321 average, .327 wOBA, and a 106 wRC+. The issue has been the power vs. lefties but if things go right for the Stros, he should get a couple swings vs. the Rangers bullpen as well and at his price around the $4K mark on both sites, he is safe in all formats.

**Update- Nick Martinez is starting**

Also Consider: Leury Garcia(CWS), Max Kepler(MIN)

Main Slate

Adam Jones FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BAL
FD - 12 DK - 9.29
Mark Trumbo FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - TOR (Estrada) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.25

On the main slate, I am going to target the Orioles outfield combination and roll with the Orioles who are at home to the Blue Jays tonight. They get to take their swings against Marco Estrada who continues to struggle this season after his somewhat breakout 2015 and 2016 seasons. He enters this start with a 5.04 ERA and 4.96 xFIP and while he has shown some K upside(9.02 K/9), he is walking over three and a half batters per nine. I target the right-handed hitters vs. Estrada as he has given up a .361 wOBA against(.309 to LH) with a 5.50 xFIP. It starts with Adam Jones who is the safer of the two hitting cleanup and has also been hot in August with a .324/.363/.571 slash line. Trumbo is the GPP option of the two as he has been moved down the lineup thanks to his struggles but should also be low owned and he still has a ton of upside with 20 home runs this season after his 47 home run breakout last year. The consistency just hasn't been there.

Also Consider: Steve Pearce(TOR), Giancarlo Stanton(MIA)

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