Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/30/17

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Pitcher

Dallas Keuchel FD 9200 DK 11400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 35.43 DK - 23.26

This is easily one of the worst pitching slates you'll see on the season. On the early slate, you have Stephen Strasburg and Carlos Martinez to choose from. Not too shabby. On this main slate, you have exactly 0 pitchers I'm overly excited to play. There are some tolerable arms, but nobody that makes me comfortable in cash games. Dallas Keuchel is as close as you'll get and it's only because of his talent. He has been average as of late and is definitely a bit overpriced. With that being said, he's facing an average offense against righties at home, where he's posted a .218 wOBA on the year. The Rangers are much worse against lefties (still not bad) and strikeout more than average at nearly 23%. Keuchel is the most talented pitcher on the slate and in turn the top option in both cash games and tournaments. The match-up isn't bad enough where it pushes me to any of these alternatives.

Travis Wood FD 5700 DK 6000
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SD
FD - 24.53 DK - 16.22

If you're going for raw points, Jose Quintana and Robbie Ray are the next 2 guys you run into. The match-up is extremely shaky for both and in Ray's case, he's acing the best offense in baseball in Chase Field. If you're forced to pay up for an SP2, I do prefer Quintana. If you're talking in terms of PP/$, Travis Wood may be next. To be clear from the start, he's not a very good pitcher. He's just extremely cheap and will allow you to pay up for whatever bats you want. The Giants are a horrible team and they rarely hurt an SP too bad. You're hoping for 5-6 innings and 1-2 runs here, with the hope for a win. I'll also say limit your Wood exposure to DK. He's simply unnecessary outside of a large-field GPP's on FanDuel. Just pay up for one of the more talented arms. All in all, you have a butt-ugly slate at pitcher. Let's see if it gets any better with the bats. That's how it works, right?

Early - Stephen Strasburg, Carlos Martinez

Catcher

Chris Gimenez FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.34 DK - 7.82

The White Sox are in Minnesota, as the whole entire DFS world is very well aware of. It's almost like every 3 out of 5 days the white Sox play they drastically shift the slate. Statistically, I'm not sure how many worse starting rotations there have ever been. When you look at James Shields and Derek Holland, they are in the league for no other reason than the past. If these were 22 or 23 year-olds with the same skill, they would be lucky to scratch AA. Seriously. Instead, they are trusted to take the ball once every 5 days and lead the team into inevitable doom. The Twins are going to be one of our top offenses again tonight and it starts at catcher with Chris Gimenez. Gimenez is obviously not the best hitter in the world, but he's hit lefties well and has a bit of pop lower in the order. I suspect some runners will be running rampant on the paths tonight, so expect some ducks on the pond when the 7 or 8 spots rolls around for Gimenez. He's fine in all formats and should be at least 25% owned if the lineup comes out early enough.

Austin Barnes FD 2100 DK 3300
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.74 DK - 6.27

Hear me out. You can definitely pay up for one of the more typical catchers in cash games. You likely have the funds and they are a bit safer. However, I'm liking the Dodgers hedge quite a bit at the weaker positions tonight. With the limited pitching options on the board, a good amount of guys will be forced into Robbie Ray. Another large group will write off anyone facing him. I'm willing to target the best offense in baseball in Chase Field against Robbie Ray. Especially when they will be sub 10% owned. Austin Barnes has been getting the starts against lefties and has taken full advantage. He's posted a .404 wOBA and while that's not fully sustainable, there's no doubt in his ability vs southpaws. I'll have my fair share of Barnes tonight and I'm not sure many will.

Early - Gary Sanchez, Welington Castillo/Caleb Joseph

First Base

Joey Votto FD 4200 DK 5600
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @CIN
FD - 14.33 DK - 10.78

On most nights, Joey Votto is going to be one of the top 3 options at 1B. Tonight is no different and you could argue he's the clear top option. Rafael Montero isn't the worst pitcher on this slate, but he's the worst on most. He's allowed a .366 wOBA on the season and has walked nearly 5 batters per 9. He falls behind in the count with guys on-base and ends up making a costly mistake. He can't afford to do that against Votto, who's held a .423 wOBA against righties with 23 home runs. He's at home in Great American Ballpark and should have a lot to do with the Red offensive success tonight. If you have the funds, Votto takes a priority over the field. As for me personally, I currently have 100%. All in!

Wil Myers FD 3200 DK 3300
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SD
FD - 11.37 DK - 9.15

If the high-priced Joey Votto doesn't float your boat, there are always plenty of pivots at 1B. We'll focus on Wil Myers, facing off with the Giants and Ty Blach. Blach is a pretty weird pitcher, all things considered. He strikes out just over 4 batters per 9 innings and has allowed a .344 wOBA to righties. I'm not sure how much longer he will be able to last with such a putrid K rate, but I don't expect long. Myers is a stud against both sides of the plate and his only weakness is striking out. With that mostly out of the picture, you can look for Myers to drive a few. Against a lefty, there's a good shot one leaves the yard. He's cheap enough on both sites and has the ability to get you a cheap, low-owned HR.

Early - Freddie Freeman

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 4200 DK 5000
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @MIN
FD - 14.16 DK - 11.17

At second base, there are a couple tiers. The first is Brian Dozier. The rest is everyone else. Dozier stands far out at 2B tonight and we will see ownership that resembles it. He's absolutely insane against lefties and sees what is possibly the best match-up in the entire league. As we know, Derek Holland is a big fan of giving it up to righties. He's given up a .404 wOBA and 26 homers so far to right-handers, which is more insane every time you read it. You then get Brian Dozier, who's one of the league's top lefty-mashers with a .411 wOBA and 26 total homers. He's not your regular 2nd baseman and you'll know it as soon as he takes the first swing. he does a good job of aiming for the fences while also working tough AB's and shooting one the other way if necessary. Dozier is simply one of the most underappreciated hitters in the league. Ove the last 2 seasons, he has 68 home runs. That's as many or more than a lot of guys you would mindlessly put over him because of his reputation.

Logan Forsythe FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.81 DK - 6.92

Brian Dozier is going to be about 110% owned tonight. Not really, but he should be. In reality, I do think he sits around 60-70%. The match-up is that good. If you want to take a stand and go for a crazy pivot, Logan Forsythe deserves some consideration. Like we mentioned with Austin Barnes, these Dodgers will be insanely low owned. If this were a typical slate, you would see them around 15-20% compared to the 3-8% you'll see tonight. Forsythe is an animal against lefties, torching them for a .395 wOBA on the season. He now moves into the 2nd best ballpark in baseball. Robbie Ray is very good, but he's allowed a .321 wOBA to righties over the last 2 and has an HR issue against them. I'm not scared of the Dodgers tonight.

Early - Robinson Cano

Shortstop

Zack Cozart FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - NYM (Montero) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.52 DK - 8.95

Shortstop is one of the weaker positions tonight outside of pitcher and the typical catcher. We do have some so-so options, but nobody stands out above the rest at a great price. Zack Cozart is my favorite of the bunch, facing off with reverse-splits righty Rafael Montero. He's allowed a .382 wOBA to righties and has shown no signs of improving. While Cozart is insane against lefties, he's been very good against righties with a .379 wOBA and .286 ISO. He's one of the best SS's in baseball and is rarely regarded as such. He shouldn't be more than 20-25% owned tonight and has a better shot than any of these guys at an HR.

Marwin Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 3800
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.37 DK - 8.16

We haven't touched on the Astros just yet, but they definitely deserve some consideration against Andrew Cashner. Their implied to put up over 5 runs, as one of only 5 teams. Cashner isn't the worst pitcher in the world, but this offense is a different beast. When a bad pitcher goes into Houston, they get shelled. It's just what happens. Cashner has been struggling for a couple years now and his baseline numbers have looked better this year, but his underlying numbers don't. He's still allowing the hard contact and line drives that he did in 2015 and 2016. Marwin Gonzalez is always one of my favorite 1-off Houston bats as he seems to go on on his lonesome quite often. He hits from both sides of the plate and does bring a level of safety that's tough to find elsewhere. I expect Cashner to go around 5 or 6 innings and give up 3 or 4 runs. Nothing crazy, but something you certainly want exposure to.

Early - Tim Beckham, Adrian Sanchez

Third Base

Asdrubal Cabrera FD 2700 DK 3800
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.89

Third base stands right with SS as a position that is struggling a bit. Like SS, there are a lot of slightly above average options. Our favorite PP/$ of the bunch is Asdrubal Cabrera. He's probably the best hitter on the Mets at this point and he is trying his best to carry the offense. Homer Bailey is obviously awful and he may get away with 5 or so decent innings just because of how bad this Mets offense is, though it won't come without a few runs. Cabrera is also a switch-hitter, so he'll have the handedness advantage or whoever comes out of the pen. He's still Asdrubal Cabrera and he can lay a dud, but so can any of these guys. The price is right and there is much of an opportunity cost. Let's see what that opportunity cost is at the top of the position.

Josh Donaldson FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - BOS (Porcello) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.61 DK - 8.72

With third base being pretty rough and this being a slate where you can spend some funds, it makes sense to pay up for Donaldson if you have the chance. He's the best hitter at the position and has a very lackluster match-up with RIck Porcello. Porcello has allowed a .340 wOBA and 14 homers to righties in just 88 innings of work. He's been worse on the road and this Blue Jays team has been swinging the bat better against righties. Donaldson on the other hand, has belted righties for a .382 wOBA and 18 homers in less than 300 at-bats. He's still one of the premier power hitters in baseball and that's not at all arguable. He hits dingers for breakfast and this match-up with Rick Porcello is nothing to be afraid of. If you are paying up at pitcher and need to spend up at only 1 or 2 spots, go elsewhere. I'm fine paying down for a 3B that finds himself higher in the order than usual.

Early - Anthony Rendon Jedd Gyorko

Outfield

Byron Buxton FD 3800 DK 5500
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.77 DK - 7.35

As a Byron Buxton truther, the last couple years have been tough. Buxton was the number 1 prospect in baseball for a few years and has similar hype to Bryce Harper, Mike Trout, and Jurickson Profar. Yep, it can definitely go both ways. Anyways, Buxton struggled. He flip-flopped between AA and the majors, where he struck out nearly 35% of the time and hit for a .306 wOBA in over 300 at-bats. This season, the real Byron Buxton has come to play. This kid has shown potential his entire career and has finally connected the dots at the major league level. THis may sound crazy, but don't be surprised when Buxton is in the MVP race a year from now. He is that good. He can steal bases with the best of them, will hit 40 homers in his prime, and has a glove comparable to Kevin Kiermaier. As for tonight, well, he faces Derek Holland. The only thing that matters, in the end, is that he's a righty. Against Holland, that in itself is worth about a double and a half.

George Springer FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.24 DK - 10.31
Josh Reddick FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.37

If you're playing Dallas Keuchel, you might as well get some of these Houstons bats to help you get the win. They definitely aren't a must, but this offense is elusive and Andrew Cashner isn't a very good pitcher. He's been atrocious over his last 3 starts and I'm not sure it's very easy for a guy to pick himself up in Houston against this offense. He's been just as bad against both sides of the plate, so you can go either way here. George Springer and Josh Reddick both obliterate righties to a .380+ wOBA and we all know they can both get it done here. It just comes down to whether or not they can connect. There's a bit more GPP-intrigue with Springer, as he has a bit more upside, but is also more likely to K 3 times and groundout. All in all, this Astos offense can put up 15 runs in the blink of an eye. While that's not likely, you want a piece of such an explosive offense that's implied for close to 6 runs. I;m not stacking the Astros, but one or two big may be the optimal way to go.

Kyle Schwarber FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @CHC
FD - 10.49 DK - 7.88

It's rare for us to completely ignore the Cubs, especially against a guy who has his main troubles against lefties. Don't get me wrong, the Cubs can be stacked tonight. While Ivan Nova is a quality pitcher, he has been known to blow-up on rare occasion and not even get out of the 1st inning. While that's highly unlikely and it's only happened a few times each year, the Cubs are one of the leading candidates to induce panic into a pitcher. There are few things scarier in baseball than stepping up as a righty and facing the gauntlet of Schwarber, Bryant, and Rizzo. Nova, against lefties, has struggled. He's allowed a .354 wOBA to them and has backed it up with just a 4.35 K/9. he's a completely different  arm against righties and lefties. Schwarber, as we know, mashes righties for power. He has a smuh HR upside as anyone on the slate and should see some low ownership on both sites. The Cubs will not be popular tonight and I'm find grabbing some upside exposure in the OF.

Early - Coors, Nick Williams, Howie Kendrick, Ben Gamel/Mitch Haniger

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