Daily Fantasy NFL Week 1 Early Look at Lineups for FanDuel and DraftKings

Even though NFL (and NBA for that matter) are basically year-round businesses, using the off-season to fuel narratives, I’m still shocked we’re back here talking some DFS pigskin. FanDuel and DraftKings released their pricing last week and we’ve spent the better part of that gap starting to firm up our basic assumptions and numbers going into Week 1.

Now’s your chance to get DFSR PRO, which will give you access to our MLB optimizer, our NFL Optimizer, and our new player lab! Get started for free by clicking the button below.

First time with NFL? Be sure to read our free MLB and NFL Ebooks on building lineups, general strategy and more. We've got you completely covered.

While still still roughly 327:33:16 hours away (who's counting anyway?) from Week 1 Main Slate kickoff, it's never too early to start looking at lineups.

FanDuel Week 1

DraftKings Week 1

Quarterbacks

At quarterback we are looking at a couple of different options. Aaron Rodgers finished 2016 as the top overall fantasy points scorer by a pretty large margin. He’s basically he perfect combination high floor/ high ceiling QB in that he’s well above average in accuracy (66% completion percentage) and he can get out and run when the mood suits him. Rodgers finished third in QB rushing yards last season behind Tyrod Taylor and Colin Kaepernick with the latter two being light years behind him as a thrower. Rodgers is basically the complete fantasy package and his arsenal of weapons is basically unchanged from last season. Sure he faces as a Seattle D but Vegas isn’t seeing that as a huge issue with Green Bay coming in at the second highest implied total (26) on the week.

Meanwhile, Marcus Mariota is coming off an injury-shortened 2016 campaign that ended with a broken leg Christmas weekend. He wasn't incredibly accurate last season (61% completion) but made up for some of it on the ground where he was 6th among quarterbacks in rushing yards. The game against Oakland looks like a potential shootout on paper (51.5 o/u OAK -1). You can see Mariota is only in 28% of top FanDuel lineups so the system isn't married to him but I don't mind the play in a vacuum.

Running Backs

For FanDuel, the running backs need no introduction with Le’Veon Bell and David Johnson coming into top lineups. It’ doesn’t take any kind of real #tout to throw out these names, but it is interesting that FanDuel’s pricing is such that both would show up this early in the game. That likely means, for our purposes, that these guys will be the plays when it’s all said and done. Johnson was the top fantasy running back last season and Bell was 4th even though he missed 25% of the season. These guys are the clear top tier guys and I’m not really bringing up anything new.

On DraftKings though it’s a different story where the pricing is much tighter. You have to go to pretty cheap punt levels to fit them both and early looks have it as Bell and Todd Gurley there. I have to say, I like the move. Gurley is walking into the season with an improved offensive line and the injury to Lance Dunbar likely means Gurley is now on the field for every down. This is a massive boost in his expectation. The fantasy community has been waiting for a post-Jeff Fisher, improved team Todd Gurley to get moving. He’s facing an Indy defense that ranked dead last in DVOA rush defense last season. If it doesn’t work out for him here then I think we can write off Gurley going forward.

Wide Receivers

With the wide receivers we see a predictable spread in talent. All of the WRs listed here, between the two sites, are in solid situations. Terrelle Pryor is moving into a new situation in Washington with much better QB play. Cousins ranked 6th in completion percentage (67%) last season while the Browns’ shit smorgasbord of chuckers averaged about 59%. We could go chicken and the egg thing with this whether it was Pryor or the other guys. But I’m willing to put it on the Cody Kessler’s of the world why Terrelle didn’t reach top tier upside. This situation is different, and better. The Redskins lost 214 targets from last season in Pierre Garcon and Desean Jackson.

Larry Fitzgerald is a constant staple in lineups when the price is right and the opportunity isn’t obstructive. I’m fine with running out this ageless wonder even for Week 1.

I'm not completely sold on Alshon Jeffrey who could see 100% Josh Norman in week one and Jarvis Landry has some sketchy quarterback play in Jay Cutler. Both of these WR slots could change before we lock in Week 1.

Tight end looks fine with Zach Ertz likely to scoop up his share of targets in the Philly offense this season.

Defense

As far as the Bills are concerned, well they get the opportunity to face the Jets. This will likely be a season long trend, targeting teams against Gang-green. The Jets are already a laughing stock and the season hasn’t even started yet. They are projected for 17.75 points (the lowest on the week) and given their offensive personnel, even that seems high. The Bills are likely to be chalk in this respect on FanDuel. DraftKings has the pricing tighter which makes the decisions closer. Because