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Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @STL
FD - 34.69 DK - 23.12
Welcome friends to Sunday DFS in the MLB. We've got a full day of action with 11 games starting early and four late afternoon contests. We're going to start things off with Chris Archer in St. Louis for the interleague series wrap up with the Cardinals. Archer is a name we don't always consider when talking about the great arms of today's game, in an era with Kershaw, Sale, and Scherzer, he has the stuff to be one of the better pitcher's in the game, but struggles from time to time and it's reflected in his 3.76 ERA and .319 BABIP. What Archer does have that suits our purposes is elite K upside. His 11.33 K/9 is the fourth best in the game and the best going today by far. The Cardinals are a top ten team in terms of wOBA and strike out a league average 21.6% of the time. This game opened as a pick'em so there's no guarantee of a win, but looking down the list of pitchers there's not a whole lot to love from a safety standpoint, so I'll take the K upside all day with Archer.
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @MIA
FD - 32.68 DK - 21.6
At SP2 I'm looking to Dan Strailey whose matchup with the Padres has him as a mid tiered arm with solid point per dollar upside due to their propensity to strikeout 25.3% of the time, second only to the Brewers, and .300 team wOBA which is second worst only to the Giants. Strailey doesn't fill me with confidence, his ERA is higher than Archer's, but on any given day the Padres can make anyone look like Cy Young. As I said, there isn't a whole lot to love about pitching today, it definitely has the feel of a GPP only kind of day, but if you are looking for cash plays in the early going this is where I'm leaning.
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @LAD
FD - 40.02 DK - 26.34
In the late afternoon we have the play that leads the pack in total points on the day. Yu Darvish is set to take to the hill for the Dodgers in L.A. against the Brewers, who despite their winning record and the fact that they're right on the Cubs coattails in the race for the NL Central, are a less than threatening offense with little to worry over once you get past Ryan Braun. Milwaukee comes into the day with a .322 team wOBA which is dead average in the league, and pair it with a subpar 92 wRC+. They also strike out 25.7% of the time, more than any other team in the game. Darvish got pushed from his last scheduled start with some time on the DL due to back tightness but all signs point to him returning to action today for his fourth game in a Dodgers uniform. Through his first three starts in L.A. he is sporting a 2.50 ERA, with a 22:4 strikeout to walk ratio. The price on DraftKings coupled with the back tightness gives me plenty of pause, but love the price on FanDuel, though I'll still be limiting him to tournaments for the time being.
Opponent - CHW (Giolito) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.55 DK - 8.07
I see no reason to blow a hefty chunk of salary paying up for a catcher on this slate when we have several low priced options in promising spots. Victor Martinez and the Tigers wrap up the series at Guaranteed Rate Field against the White sox who will send Lucas Giolito to the hill. Giolito is making his second start of the season following several spot starts for the Nationals last season. In his debut on the 22nd he lasted six innings against the Twins, allowing four runs on six hits. facing a raw call up could be what the seasoned vet needs following some rough outings against the Dodgers and Yankees. VMart opened the series on Friday with a three for four performance scoring a run in the process, and is currently hitless with a walk as of this writing Saturday night. For the cost though, Martinez doesn't need to do a ton to pay value and with the Tigers forecasted for one of the highest run totals of the day at 5.4 he could see plenty of opportunity to pay value and then some.
Opponent - ARI (Corbin) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.08
If Martinez makes you nervous, I get that, so if you have just a few hundred more dollars to spend behind the plate then check out Buster Posey. Posey had an excellent series against Philly last weekend but has cooled off some since then. Still he is one of the best offensive catchers in the game with a .368 wOBA, second only to Gary Sanchez and his .333 BABIP leads all qualified backstops. He's facing Patrick Corbin today in the friendliest park going for hitters with the Rockies on the road this weekend. Posey has been much better against southpaws this year with a .442 wOBA.
Consider: Jonathan Lucroy (COL) vs Mike Foltynewicz (ATL)
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @TOR
FD - 12.58 DK - 9.38
Here's a snippet of what I said about Justin Smoak yesterday:
Smoak has quietly been a bright light in a dark season for Blue Jays fans, popping his 35th home run of the season Friday night. He's carrying a .386 wOBA and a 142 wRC+ with a .278 ISO. Smoak is fully capable of going out there and giving an 0 for 4 performance, but the implied upside that he presents is worth taking a chance on.
He in turn gave us an 0 for 3 performance, but he also drew two walks and scored a run, which, for a player in his price range, I would hope for a little more, but it certainly was better than a goose egg, and the numbers still stand. Smoak presents some of the best upside at the position while being a mid tier option as he proved Friday night when he finished a triple shy of the cycle.
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.86 DK - 11.33
So, the system was bullish on the Red Sox yesterday which didn't quite work out as we had hoped, but we're going right back to bean town again today (sorry Steve) because the system doesn't take recent performance into consideration and because while regardless of the shut out, I maintain Kevin Gausman isn't that good and Wade Miley is worse. He's got a terrible 4.55 xFIP, an astronomical 5.11 ERA, and he's walking nearly 1.5 batters for every two K's this season. Hanley Ramirez seems to be losing steam in his twelfth season as most of his numbers are down from his career totals, but as long as he's still swinging lumber he's in consideration against Miley with Vegas once again targeting the Red Sox as the highest scoring offense on the day at 5.7 runs. Added bonus that a lot of people may be off Boston today after yesterday's letdown.
Opponent - CHW (Giolito) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.19 DK - 9.93
If you're one of those, then maybe consider Miguel Cabrera against the rookie Giolito. Another veteran who seems to be bottoming out, Miggy still has some pop in his bat as evidenced by the solo shot he hit last night, his 14th of the season. Cabrera has struggled more against right handed pitching this season, but against the young call up, I can see rolling with Miggy especially at these prices.
Consider: Jose Abreu (CWS) vs Matthew Boyd (DET)
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.68
DJ LeMahieu went yard twice last night in SunTrust Park, but that's not why he is showing here. I actually had him selected prior to the bombs and as I said the system looks at season and career totals, not recent performance. Beside last night accounts for 33% of DJ's homers this season and this is a guy that calls Coors Field home, so clearly an anomaly. Long balls aside, the reason we want to look at LeMahieu is the .312 avg, the .352 BABIP and the .335 wOBA. LeMahieu may not be a power hitter, but he gets the ball in play. He has hits in seven of his last 10 games with four of those being multi-hit exhibitions, while also drawing five walks during that stretch. All things considered, I love LeMahieu in cash, and may consider some tournament exposure as well.
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.98
I wrote up Eduardo Nunez for Saturday, and then saw the run in with Manny Machado on Friday night so wasn't sure he would even be available to play. He was cleared to play, but like the whole Boston lineup, he did nothing for us. Now that that's behind us though, Nunez is still firmly in place as the Boston table setter and is going to get an opportunity to make up for today's 0for against Wade Miley. The price is still not where it should be and will surely rise so keep utilizing Nunez while you can.
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @CLE
FD - 10.3 DK - 8.41
I wrote up Ramirez yesterday based on the fact that he was underpriced. Since then two things happened that give me conflicting feelings, first he went 0-4 at the plate, then the price dropped. So now he's even more underpriced, so even with yesterday's burn still fresh, I have to consider Ramirez hitting in the heart of a potent offense that is projecting at 4.8 runs today. I prefer LeMahieu and even Nunez, but as a gpp pivot Ramirez comes packed with upside.
Consider: Josh Harrison (PIT) vs Homer Bailey (CIN)
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.62 DK - 9.71
I wrote up the same two short stops last night that I am writing tonight with one difference. Last night I favored Trevor Story and today I am on Corey Seager. Seager has the second best wOBA at the position at .382 and his .313 average leads the position. Today he'll step into the box against Jimmy Nelson who has been worse against left handed bats this season allowing a .313 wOBA to the left side of the dish and he's allowed nearly twice as many home runs to left handed hitters. Last night was the first time Seager failed to make it out of the batters box in 19 straight games. Look for his new streak to begin today.
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.18 DK - 7.91
There really is no reason you shouldn't be able to, but if you can't afford Seager and need a cheap option to punt your way out of shortstop then consider Trevor Story. Today he'll face Mike Foltynewicz, and while he is much better against southpaws, which is what gave him the edge against Seager yesterday, Story is cheap enough to give strong consideration to against Folty who has a 4.95 ERA backed up by a 4.63 xFIP. Story does rank fifth among Shortstops with 18 home runs and 10 of those have come off of right handed pithing, so if he's able to get a hold of one, he could prove to be a solid tournament play, I'll stick with Seager in cash though.
Consider: Xander Bogaerts (BOS) vs Wade Miley (BAL)
Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.77
Chris Stratton will make his fifth career start today, and he'll do so in one of the worst parks for pitchers in baseball, Chase Field. He'll do it against the lefty heavy line up of the Diamondbacks. A lineup that features Jake Lamb and David Peralta in the top of the order. We'll get to Peralta in a moment, but for now let's talk about Lamb. Lamb bats third and has mashed against right handed pitching this season. Mashed to the tune of a .400 wOBA, a .976 OPS and a .285 ISO. 22 of his 27 home runs have come off of right handed pitchers, and that accounts for nearly a quarter of his total hits against the split. Lamb has owned right handed pitching this season and will waste no time letting Stratton know he's playing with the big boys now.
Opponent - MIN (Gibson) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.23
I mentioned earlier that Justin Smoak was a triple shy of the cycle on Friday, yesterday it was the Don that was a triple shy for the Jays. Josh Donaldson, who was recommended by yours truly yesterday, was 3 for 5 with a double, home run, three RBI and two runs scored. You're welcome. Today he takes on another right handed arm in the form of Kyle Gibson, who has a 4.66 xFIP, a 5.76 ERA with nearly a third of his hits surrendered to right handed hitters going for extra bases. Donaldson is severely underpriced and an excellent option in all formats today.
Consider: Justin Turner (LAD) vs Jimmy Nelson (MIL)
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.3 DK - 11.53
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.21 DK - 10.08
I said yesterday that it seems the Boston outfield is always in play, and here we are once again. Yesterday we spotlighted Mookie Betts and Andrew Benintendi. We are going to stick with Betts as he was one of the few Red Sox to pay off yesterday ending the day 2 for 3 with a walk, but we'll shelve Benintendi for the time being and check out Rajai Davis. Davis is still unpacking since being dealt over from Oakland, and adjusting to the east coast sleep schedule, but he got his first hit as a Red Sox yesterday going 1 for 3 at the plate. Davis has had a down season in Oakland this season, compared to last year, but he still has been hitting left-handed pitching better so the matchup with Miley is favorable as he tries to turn things around and help Boston hang on to that lead in the AL East. Both are in play in a Boston stack, while once again, if forced to choose I'll take Betts as a cash play while reserving Rajai for tournaments.
Opponent - SF (Stratton) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.87 DK - 10.29
Like Jake Lamb above, David Peralta has been dominant against right handed pitching this season. The DBacks leadoff hitter has a .362 wOBA and 116 wRC+ against the split and has hit all but two of his home runs against right handers. Today he gets to do it against a 27 year old call up making his fifth start of his career. In his limited time in the bigs Chris Stratton possesses a 3.89 ERA but a 5.02 xFIP. He's allowed 18 earned runs on 41 hits and has a 1.45 K/BB ratio. A stack of the Arizona lefties might be a good way to go today, but even if you just get limited exposure make sure Peralta is a part of it.
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.6 DK - 9.79
I love me some Cutch on FanDuel. The DraftKings price is a little more than I'm comfortable spending, especially given the fact his August wOBA has represented his worst month of the season, but the price on FD just screams upside. Today the Pirates go for the series win against the Reds who will send Homer Bailey to the hill. Bailey has righted the ship from 2015 when he was giving up home runs like it was his job, bringing his HR/9 to a more respectable 1.44, but just keeping the ball in the yard isn't always enough and Bailey is still rocking a 7.99 ERA, a .378 BABIP, and a 1.97 WHIP while walking 4.95 batters per nine. McCutchen has been mired in a slump going 0 for 11 in his last four games, but if ever a time to turn things around today is the day. Cutch is more of a tournament play, but a tournament play I will be sure to utilize.
Consider: George Springer (HOU) vs Ricky Nolasco (LAA), Jose Bautista(TOR) vs Kyle Gibson (MIN)
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View Comments
What happened with picking on Gausman yesterday? A Shutout? My boys going for the sweep today.