Daily Fantasy MLB Pitchers for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/22/17

Here's where you can find some recommendations for tournament pitchers target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.

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Pitchers

Jeff Samardzija FD 8400 DK 8600
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @SF
FD - 35.47 DK - 23.54

Samardzija could be getting a decent amount of attention in this game -- its got the lowest total on the board, the park is great for pitching, and the Brewers strike out more than any team in baseball vs. RHP. If it looks like he's going to be chalk, I'd be OK with the fade, but Samardzija definitely needs to be on your tournament radar today. Granted, we're still waiting for the results to match the underlying stats this season, but it's hard to imagine that a guy with 9.24 Ks/9 and just 1.34 BBs/9 will continue to carry a 4.79 ERA, especially when he's pitching about half his games in the best pitcher's park in the league. Some of the blame for that under-performance relative to expectation (3.38 xFIP) probably falls to Samardzija -- maybe he's tipping pitches or sequencing poorly or any number of other possibilities. But the bigger factor appears to be plain bad luck. His batting average and wOBA allowed are both running .25-.30 points higher than they should be based on Statcast's batted ball data, and at some point, positive regression should be coming. If it starts tonight, there's big upside here. And even if it doesn't all come at once, we like his chances to return solid value on these prices.

Jimmy Nelson FD 8700 DK 11000
Opponent - SF (Samardzija) Park - @SF
FD - 35.28 DK - 23.27

I'm not super excited to pay that price on DK, but think of it this way: not many people will be. It's obviously a little more enticing from a point/$ perspective on FanDuel, but we think he's worth a GPP look on either site for one reason or another. There's no doubt Nelson has made big strides in 2017. He's posting career-bests in Ks/9 (10.05), BBs/9 (2.25), ERA (3.74), FIP (3.06) and xFIP (3.12). Those last two numbers, by the way, put him among the best pitchers in baseball, ranking 7th in both categories. Sure, he hasn't been at his best the last couple of times out, but we're not overly concerned yet. AT&T provides ample cushion against a mistake or two, and this Giants lineup is definitely one we can pick on. They've struggled all year (29th in wRC+ vs. RHP), and they've become much more K-prone lately with six of their eight projected starters holding a K rate > 20%.

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