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Homer Bailey, Great American Smallpark, wind blowing out. Y'all know what to do. The Cubs' overall numbers against RHP this season aren't great, but whatever. The bats have awakened in the second half, and they're still a top-10 offense for the full year in ISO vs. RHP. Six of their eight expected starters have an ISO over .200 in the split (Jon Jay and Ben Zobrist are the exceptions), and in one of baseball's most power-friendly parks, the chance that a home run derby breaks out is very real. And it's not like we can expect Bailey to do anything to stop it. He comes in with an 8.44 ERA and a 5.70 xFIP. Lefties own a .366 wOBA against him this season, but righties are destroying him: .424 wOBA, .229 ISO. They won't come cheap, but there's virtually no combination of Cubs bats we're not interested in tonight.
Due to park considerations, the Yankees should be a little less chalky, but the upside against Matt Boyd is there regardless of the venue. Also, while Comerica Park isn't overly friendly to hitters, it's a lot closer to neutral than its reputation might have you believe. That's good enough for us, because we're looking for a chance to pick on Boyd. He's giving up a .370 wOBA and .191 ISO to righties this season, and the Yankees have four guys -- Hicks, Judge, Sanchez and Frazier -- with an ISO over .225 vs. RHP. Judge is obviously slumping, so if that worries you, I get it. And if that's the case, you might want to just fade here. But we like his chances against a soft-tossing, fly-ball pitcher with iffy command. And Detroit's bullpen ranks dead last in baseball with a 4.94 xFIP, so if the Yanks chase Boyd early, it's not like the Tigers have a cavalry of studs to come in and shut things down.
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We've got an awful lot of appealing stack options tonight, and most of them have more name-brand firepower than the Twins. The hope is that fact -- plus that they're facing a highly touted prospect -- will keep ownership in check despite their 5.5 implied run total. Let's start by looking at Lucas Giolito, the White Sox starter who was a key piece in the Adam Eaton trade last offseason. At one point he was the consensus top overall pitching prospect in baseball, but the shine has dimmed a bit due to rising control problems over his last two minor league seasons and an ugly stint with the Nationals in 2016. The fact that he got bombed in his first exposure to Major League hitting isn't that huge of a deal -- it's happens to lots (if not most) pitchers. But the walks, along with intermittent home run issues, raise a red flag. He posted a 4.48 ERA with a 4.43 FIP in Triple-A this season, so while he can miss bats, he was far from dominant in the minors this season. And those control issues could be problematic against the Twins, who rank 2nd in baseball with a 9.7% BB rate. Admittedly, there are only a few bats we really like here with Miguel Sano out. But Brian Dozier (.197 ISO vs. RHP), Max Kepler (.219 ISO, .361 wOBA) and Eddie Rosario (.228/.363) all look like strong plays -- especially when you consider the already trade-depleted White Sox bullpen worked 10.1 innings in yesterday's doubleheader.
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