Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/20/17

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Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner FD 10400 DK 12400
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @SF
FD - 41.74 DK - 27.58

There is no better situation for Madison Bumgarner. He's at home facing off with the Philadelphia Phillies. The Phillies are the worst team in baseball and are absolutely horrible against lefties. They've ranked 25th in the league with a .299 wOBA and 21% strikeout rate. They have absolutely no power and will struggle to put up runs in this spacious park. Bumgarner is the same guys he has been for the past couple years. Since the start of the season, he's held a .281 wOBA and 21% K rate. AT&T Park is the best park in baseball in limiting runs and this Phillies team is going to have bundles of trouble. Bumgarner is one of the best pitchers in baseball and we can't forget that just because he hasn't done a lot recently. He's the top option in both formats and I don't see it as too close. He will definitely cost you a pretty penny and it'll just come down to how you value your salary. If you're looking for safety, you should probably pay up. Pitchers are far more predictable than hitters and there is also a greater opportunity cost with only 1 on the roster.

Jacob deGrom FD 10400 DK 12700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 38.11 DK - 25.06

I don't see this as a day to pay down for pitcher(s). While I'll certainly touch on a guy who you can take a flier on in the low-end, it won't be fun. deGrom is the 2nd best play on this slate and he is the same price as Madison Bumgarner. deGrom and the Mets will face off with the lowly Miami Marlins in Citi Field. They have 3 good hitters and 6 poor ones. While definitely a tall task, if deGrom can find a way to get around Stanton, Ozuna, and Yelich, he will be on his way to a dominant outing. As a team, the Marlins rank 15th against righties with a high K%. Even if one of the big 3 does tag deGrom, I don't see him getting flustered and letting it bother the rest of his start. deGrom has been absolutely phenomenal this season with a combined .288 wOBA and 10+ K/9. He can go 9 innings and will more than likely last at least 7. Terry Collins is willing to push him to around 115 pitches and I do think he lasts that long against the Marlins. If you are looking for a pivot from Bumgarner or don't like the match-up for some reason, deGrom is an exquisite pivot. Don't be scared by the Marlins.

Catcher

Buster Posey FD 3000 DK 4200
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @SF
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.55

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 11.92 DK - 9.29

If you feel the need to pay down at catcher, just wait until lineups come out and go with a guy that finds himself a bit higher in the order than usual. Ther are always 3 or 4 on Sundays, when most starters take a break. If you do have the funds and are looking to pivot from Posey, Jonathan Lucroy is obviously a great target in Coors Field. Lucroy has been a lot better against righties over the last couple years and has sported a .327 wOBA since 2016. He's definitely struggling compared to his old self, but is still one of the better hitting catchers out there. He faces off with Chase Anderson, who is a righty with reverse splits. He has a bit of trouble with HR's and moving to Coors Field will certainly not help. I do prefer Posey in both formats, but Lucroy will be more popular and it makes sense why people will be on him. Coors Field is attractive at a position without much to offer.

First Base

Joey Gallo FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.13 DK - 10.654

Jesus Aguilar FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 13.12 DK - 9.86

Second Base

Jason Kipnis FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.66

Wilmer Flores FD 3000 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.34

The Mets aren't a team we're huge on tonight, but you have to love a few of these 1-off righties in tournaments. Adam Conley is a very average pitcher and he has no problem giving up a few homers to righties. Through just 50 short innings on the season, he's posted a .334 wOBA and 37% hard contact rate against righties. He's also worse on the road and only strikes out 6 batters per 9 innings. If you were to build an "average lefty starter", you get Adam Conley. Wilmer Flores may not jump off the page at you, but he is exceptional against lefties. He's sported a .341 wOBA since the start of the season and has 6 homers in under 100 at-bats. The price is a bit too low on Flores and I don't think he'll be popular either. You should be able to scoop him for around 10% and have a great shot at an HR at a weak position.

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Shortstop

Marwin Gonzalez FD 3000 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.68 DK - 9.18

Zack Cozart FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.59 DK - 9.01

The Reds, like the Mets, are a team I'll be looking for 1-off pivots from. They have some HR upside against Newcomb in ATL, but I don't necessarily trust the entire offense. Zack Cozart, in particular, is an absolute monster against southpaws. Since the start of the season, he's posted a monstrous .477 wOBA against lefties and has backed it up with equally impressive peripherals (40% hard contact, 25% line drive). The ball has flown out at SunTrust so far and as someone who has gone to about 10 games, I can confirm. I saw Marcus Stroman send one about 380 feet on a changeup. He'll face off with Sean Newcomb, who is a good pitcher. He's a young prospect with promise and a lot to learn. He's held a .342 wOBA against lefties and has allowed 8 homers in just 46 innings. The price on Cozart is fair and he will not be popular. Sean Newcomb isn't a pitcher people like to target and the Reds on the road are often ignored. Cozart and Gonzalez are 1a and 1b for me and I haven't decided which will end up in my cash games.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.42 DK - 7.94

Nolan Arenado FD 4700 DK 5500
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @COL
FD - 16.82 DK - 12.85

Third base isn't a spot I plan on paying down. I don't think you can afford to ignore this upper-tier in cash games. If you don't like Lamb against the soft-tossing Bartolo Colon, you can look at Nolan Arenado in Coors Field. He's facing off with a reverse-splits righty that has HR issues at Miller Park. He might not be a horrible pitcher, but his game doesn't fit in Coors Field. Anderson is allowing righties to hit the ball hard over 32% of the time and is striking out less than 7 per 9 innings. Arenado has been great against righties on the season with a .357 wOBA that jumps to a .392 at home. The price is high and the ownership will be low as a result. He's one of the top HR candidates of the night and you'll be able to get him at around 10-15%. If you're paying up for a pitcher, you are probably better off with Jake Lamb, but if you can fit Arenado, go for it.

Outfield

Ryan Braun FD 4500 DK 5300
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 15.77 DK - 12.47
Domingo Santana FD 3900 DK 4300
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 14.18 DK - 10.98

George Springer FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 14.9 DK - 11.61
Josh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - OAK (Cotton) Park - @HOU
FD - 13.43 DK - 10.55

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3100 DK 4100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.18 DK - 11.11

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