(AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Bristol Motor Speedway - Bristol, TN
Track - .533 Mile Oval Short Track
Laps - 500
With just three races until the playoffs, the Monster Energy Cup Series head to the World's Fastest Half-Mile, Bristol Motor Speedway. With 13 drivers locked into the postseason, there are three spots that remain and while the gap has grown over the past few weeks any driver inside the Top 30 in points can jump the points chasers by just winning a race! Ok, winning a race isn't as easy as Martin Truex Jr, Kyle Larson, and Jimmie Johnson(three drivers with 3+ wins) have made it out to be. Before getting into the trends and picks, let's take a look at the drivers hovering the bubble.
14th - Chase Elliot(685 Points)
15th - Jamie McMurray(675 Points)
16th - Matt Kenseth(654 Points)
PLAYOFF CUTLINE
17th - Clint Bowyer(623 Points)
18th - Joey Logano(556 Points)
19th - Erik Jones(524 Points)
20th - Daniel Suarez(515Points)
Let's now take a look at some of the trends going into this weeks race.
Jimmie Johnson is the defending race winner from the Spring race and he also has three Top 5's and four Top 10 finishes in his last five races here at Bristol. He also sits in the Top 5 when looking at career track history with two Bristol wins and 18 Top 10 finishes in 31 races. Chase Elliott, with a small three race sample size, is next on the list with finishes of 7th, 15th, and 4th in his three trips to Bristol. Kevin Harvick is another driver who makes both lists as he has a win and four Top 10's over his last five races and two career wins here with 16 Top 10 finishes in 33 races. For value, you have to love Ricky Stenhouse Jr. this week as he has finished Top 10 here in three of the last five races and five times in his nine career races with his worst finish a 21st in August 2015. One driver that i was surprised to see absent from these two lists is Kyle Busch who leads all active drivers with five career Bristol wins(actually tied with brother Kurt) and 1,959 laps led. This would be the main reason his salary is nearing the $11K mark.
The track type ranks are fairly spread out as all three tracks are different which will have me weighing them a bit lower this week. Jimmie Johnson leads the way as the only driver over the last 15 short track races to have an average finish below 10 and has two wins and nine top 10 finishes. Joey Logano, Denny Hamlin, and Matt Kenseth are the only other drivers with multiple short track wins since the start of the 2015 season. Once again we Kyle Busch off the top 5 list but the leader when looking at laps led(1,165) with Matt Kenseth(942) and Joey Logano(792) right behind him.
No surprises at the top of the form list as Martin Truex Jr. has been on fire in July and August. He has two wins(Watkins Glen & Kentucky) and has finished Top 5 in five of his last six races and is averaging a crazy 75.8 DK points per race. Denny Hamlin is next with a 7.7 average finish over the last six races with a win and four Top 5's. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson both have three Top 5's in the last six races and four other drivers(Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Erik Jones, Daniel Suarez) have four Top 10 finishes.
Kyle Busch ($10,800)
He has only picked up one Top 10 in his last four races but has led the most laps and when I think Bristol, he is the first driver that comes to mind. He is tied with brother Kurt with five career wins here, most of all active drivers and has also dominated the laps led with 1,959 in 24 races(next closest is Kenseth with 1,572). He is an elite fantasy play this week starting 18th and posted the best average practice rank on Friday and could also lead a ton of laps. Safe in all formats despite the high price.
Kevin Harvick ($9,800)
Harvick has a lot going for him this week and it starts with a salary that remains below the $10K mark. That will lead him to be highly owned but I don't think it matters as he starts 29th with some huge place differential upside. Add to it that Harvick won here last August and has finished Top 10 in four straight Bristol races.
Trevor Bayne ($6,900)
His price continues to trend up but remains under $7K making him a top value this week. It helps that he has qualified 20th which gives him nice upside considering he has finished 15th or better in four straight Bristol races. He is also coming off his best finish of the seaosn with a 5th at Michigan.
Matt DiBenedetto ($5,800)
Dipping in the sub $6K range, I like DiBenedetto as he starts 34th this week and has finished 19th, 17th, 6th, 33rd, and 21st here in his career. He also got better through practice posting the 32nd fastest time in opneing practice and the 27th fastest in final practice.
Below you will find a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, DraftKings points averages, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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