Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/18/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 14100
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 49.45 DK - 32.71

For the second time this season Mad Max has reached the $14K mark on DraftKings. It may seem a little ridiculous but consider that no other qualified pitcher outside Clayton Kershaw has a lower ERA(2.25) and he backs it up with a 3.06 xFIP but the #1 reason we target Max is for the upside. He is one of just three pitchers(Sale & Kluber) who is striking out over 35% of batters this season and is missing bats at a 15.9% swinging strike rate. Then you add the fact he gets to pitch in Petco and face the Padres who have scored the second fewest runs this season and rank 27th in wOBA vs. right-handed pitching with a 25.3% strikeout rate.

Dallas Keuchel FD 9300 DK 10400
Opponent - OAK (Manaea) Park - @HOU
FD - 34.46 DK - 22.57

Keuchel sat out nearly two months with a neck injury and after somewhat struggling in his first three starts(14 ER in 12 IP) he appeared to return to form last time out vs. the Rangers. He ended up going 6.2 innings limiting the Rangers to six hits and one earned run while striking out seven. He still has some work to do with the control as he has walked 11 in his last four starts but it was great to see the K upside return. Tonight he pitches at home where he has been much better with a 1.59 ERA while limiting opponents to a low .231 wOBA and faces an Oakland team that ranks 26th in wOBA vs. left-handed pitching with a 24.7% strikeout rate. Keuchel is a great option if you are looking to pivot off Scherzer and upgrade the bats throughout your lineup.

Matt Moore FD 7500 DK 5000
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @SF
FD - 29.26 DK - 14.91

If you are set on using Scherzer with his $14K price tag on DraftKings you are going to need a cheap SP2 or you will be left with nothing but bottom of the order bats. Enter Matt Moore who sits right at the very bottom of the salary ranks tonight. I get that he isn't a great pitcher with a 5.71 ERA on the season but he strikes out more bats than the average pitcher(7.96 K/9) and has recorded double digit DK points in seven of his last 10 games. The part that is somewhat unusual is that he pitches better at home in one of the best pitchers parks in the league and faces a Phillies team that ranks dead last in runs scored this season and in the bottom third of the league when looking at wOBA, wRC+ and K rate vs. left-handed pitching. I am not expecting a big game here but he sure helps get Scherzer in your lineup with some upside bats and does provide 20 DK point upside.

Catcher

Robinson Chirinos FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.26 DK - 8.59

I wrote up Chirinos yesterday but he ended up sitting. Here is a snip from that article:

This pick is one of the main reasons I like playing both sites. The price differential. Chirinos is a little over priced(understatement) on DraftKings in the $4K range considering I normally only consider him against lefties but on FanDuel I am willing to somewhat discount the splits as he comes at a sub $3K price tag. It allows us to fit Severino or Nola and still get exposure to some big bats in great spots. He does come in with hits in five straight and seven of his last eight starts and has also added some power with two home runs.

Good news. The matchup got even better. He now faces James Shields who has been a disaster since returning from the disabled list in mid-June. He has allowed three or more earned runs in nine of his 10 starts and has allowed six earned runs four times. He has also given up a home run in eight of those 10 games(19% HR/FB rate) with nearly 40% hard contact against. Chirinos hits at the bottom of the order but allows some nice salary relief to fit Scherzer in your lineup.

Jonathan Lucroy FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @COL
FD - 12.14 DK - 9.45

Despite hitting down in the order, Lucroy's price is just too low which put him right near the top of the PTS/$ ranking tonight. He sits in the mid $3K range on both sites and gets to take his swings in the best hitters park in the league. On top of that, he has really started to heat up with his five hits in his last two games and has hits in six of his last seven games.

First Base

Mark Reynolds FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - MIL (Garza) Park - @COL
FD - 14.54 DK - 10.87

Reynolds was another player I wrote up yesterday that ended up getting a rest. He should most likely be back in the lineup tonight and everything I wrote yesterday still applies so let's look at what I wrote:

We make our first trip to Coors Field in the article and I start with Mark Reynolds who sits at the top of the raw points rankings for the entire day and right near the top of the PTS/$ rankings on the main slate. He provides some big power upside in Coors and is one of three Rockies hitters with 24 or more long balls this season. He has shown some big reverse splits this season hitting .297 vs. righties with a .386 wOBA and 120 wRC+(.214/.329/83 vs. RH).

The matchup is also a good one vs. Matt Garza who has given up 11 earned runs in his last two starts with five long balls. Lock and load in all formats.
Eric Thames FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - COL (Marquez) Park - @COL
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.3

The other side of this game presents a nice high upside GPP option in Eric Thames who is making his first trip to Coors Field this season. I say GPP only as Thames has struggled in the second half with a .230 average but his power bat gets a nice boost tonight in the best hitters park in the league. The matchup isn't elite as German Marquez has been very serviceable this season with a 4.13 ERA(above average considering his home park) but has given up a home run in six of his last eight starts. Even with the game in Coors, you are likely to get Thames at a low ownership considering all the top options at the position.

Freddie Freeman FD 3900 DK 4600
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @ATL
FD - 13.36 DK - 10.23

Speaking of those top options at first base we have a much more chalky option but also more consistent. Freeman comes in red-hot with hits in six straight and 10 of his last 11 games with three home runs. The hot hitting has elevated his slash line to an elite .320/.421/.625 mark for the season and while the new park in Atlanta sits neutral when looking at park factors, it is setup for left-handed power bats like Freeman. Considering the matchup vs. Romano(6.05 ERA, 4.66 BB/9 rate & 35% hard contact rate) and the price in the same range as the above options, Freeman is safe in all formats tonight.

Second Base

Rougned Odor FD 3200 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.78 DK - 9.49

If we are planning on using some upper tier pitching tonight we have to take some risks with less than consistent players in the mid to low tier. Enter Roughned Odor is never a popular pick in the DFSR chatroom due to his poor average but he has been much better as of late. He is currently 2 for 3 on Thursday night which gives him multiple hits in four of his last five games. The real reason he is back in the article on back to back days is the matchup vs. Shields and his 17% HR/FB rate and ugly 5.90 ERA on the season. Keep loading up on Rangers as they have scored an average of eight runs per game over the last four.

Logan Forsythe FD 3200 DK 3600
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 10.43 DK - 8.19

While I prefer Odor on FanDuel at the same price, the $400 discount on DraftKings could prove to be very important given the price of the top pitchers tonight. I normally only consider Forsythe against left-handed pitching but given how bad Zimmerman has been this season(5.62 ERA, 5.33 xFIP, 14.4% HR/FB rate), I will take the value price and run. Forsythe has also been swinging a fairly hot bat with hits in five of his last six games with two doubles, five RBI, and five runs scored. I will be using him in all formats tonight.

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 13.35 DK - 10.27

I was going to continue to pick on James Shields here but seeing Andrus at a higher price than Seager on both sites makes the decision easy. Seager is clearly the better player who is following up his rookie of the year with an elite .310/.399/.519 slash line with 19 home runs, 59 RBI, and 73 runs scored. He is a staple hitting second in a Dodgers lineup that ranks 5th overall in runs scored and has a league best 85 wins. All things considered, he should be on your short list of players to pay up for tonight.

Brandon Crawford FD 2300 DK 2400
Opponent - PHI (Eflin) Park - @SF
FD - 9.26 DK - 7.22

On a full slate, there will be multiple punt plays that show up when lineups come out but the one that stands out right now(Thursday evening)is Brandon Crawford. The price is low on both sites and while he hits in an extreme pitchers park, he and the Giants get one of the top matchups on the board. After giving up 22 earned runs in three starts in May Eflin was sent down to the minors and while he has been better since returning, he has still given up six earned runs in 12.1 innings with three home runs against. Crawford has bounced around the lineup but if he is back in the Top 5 tonight, he is in play in all formats. It's much more about the savings to get to Scherzer than it is about his own upside.

Third Base

Manny Machado FD 4000 DK 5300
Opponent - LAA (Heaney) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.38 DK - 10.35

The obvious play for just $200 more on DraftKings is going to be Arenado at home in Coors but on FanDuel I will gladly take the $600 discount with Machado and load up with Scherzer in almost all my lineups. Machado continues to roll in the second half with a .333 average, .377 wOBA, and 135 wRC+ with five long balls and 27 RBI. He will face Andrew Heaney who is making his season debut after Tommy John Surgery took away his 2016 season and in three starts at AAA he has a less than impressive 4.79 xFIP. Considering Machado is a tick better vs southpaws, he should get consideration in all formats tonight.

Luis Valbuena FD 2400 DK 3400
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @BAL
FD - 8.98 DK - 6.72

The only issue with the elite pitcher approach is that you have to surround them with multiple value/punt plays and they are, for the most part, inconsistent players. So when looking for these plays I tend to lean towards the players that can not only provide salary relief but also provide some upside in their bat. The Valbuena play is just that and is mostly a get it while it's hot approach as he comes into tonight with home runs in back to back games and faces a pitcher in Dylan Bundy who has given up at least one home run in 15 of his last 17 starts.

Outfield

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3000 DK 4300
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.47 DK - 11.33
Nomar Mazara FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.64 DK - 10.55

You knew I was going here. I mean, it's going to be hard to fade the Rangers right now as they have been tearing it up this week winning four straight games while scoring 37 runs(9.3 per game). For cash games, I prefer Choo who has been hitting higher in the lineup and comes at quite a discount, especially on FanDuel. He hasn't hit a home run since July 21 but has been fairly consistent with a .334 wOBA and 103 wRC+ for the season. Mazara is the play if you have a little extra salary kicking around and are looking for upside. Mazara has hits in five straight and seven of his last nine games including five multi-hit efforts, 14 RBI, and home runs in back to back games. Oh ya, and they face James Shields in Texas during the summer. Yes, please!

Yoenis Cespedes FD 3700 DK 4600
Opponent - MIA (Nicolino) Park - @NYM
FD - 12.73 DK - 9.77

With some high upside bats at the third base and first base positions, it has us having to load up in the mid tier in the outfield which works out as we get three positions to fill. It has been a long season for Cespedes who has dealt with multiple leg injuries but should always be considered when facing a southpaw that gives up the long ball. Justin Nicolino has only pitched away from Miami once in his seven appearances(six starts) and he was torched by the Dodgers for five earned runs over four innings. While the Mets are nowhere near the offense of the Dodgers, Cespedes still provides a ton of home run upside and is likely low owned once again.

Ender Inciarte FD 2900 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @ATL
FD - 9.64 DK - 8.16

I am going back to Inciarte tonight who is likely disappointed to be leaving Coors after going 4 for 11 with a triple and two home runs. He now has hits in six straight and 19 of his last 20 games and despite the lack of overall upside, provides a ton of consistency at minimal cost, at least on FanDuel. It's the matchup that really draws my attention as Sal Romano has been awful lately giving up 15 earned runs over his last three starts pushing his ERA to 6.05 for the season.

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