Webb Simpson watches his tee shot on the sixth hole during the third round of the Dean & DeLuca Invitational golf tournament at Colonial Country Club in Fort Worth, Texas, Saturday, May 27, 2017. (AP Photo/LM Otero)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.
No more Majors. No problem. The FedEx Cup Playoffs are now just a week away where one golfer will come out on top with the hardware and a cool 10 million dollars.
Before the Playoffs begin we have one more tournament, the Wyndham Championship, where golfers outside the Top 125 will have one more shot to squeeze their way into the field for The Northern Trust next week. On the cheatsheet this week I added each golfers FedEx Cup Rank to make it easier to see where everyone fits in the grand scheme of things. I don't think it is wise to solely concentrate on the narrative of playing guys around the bubble but think it will definitely help make some key decisions between certain players who are playing for their season. Here is a peek at the five players below and above the cut line going into the week:
Above - Blair(120), Hearn(121), Werenski(122), Power(123), Summerhays(124), Ogilvy(125)
Below - Tringale(126), Saunders(127), Palmer(128), Hurley(129), Poston(130)
The Wyndham Championship dates back to 1970 and started with Sedgefield CC being the host course up until 1977 when it shifted to Forest Oaks CC just down the road. The tournament remained at Forest Oaks until 2008 when it shifted back to Sedgefield. Another note about Sedgefield itself is that they made the switch from Bentgrass to Champion Bermuda on the greens back in 2012. This matches up perfectly for the past five years course history model that I use on my cheatsheet.
The Donald Ross design challenges players off the tee on almost every hole with strategically placed bunkers, hazards, trees, and thick rough. This will force players to use less than driver on a lot of the Par 4's to ensure ball placement to have a shot at the green. I am not totally discounting distance as last year only one player inside the Top 10 and two players inside the Top 20 averaged under 300 yards off the tee. Instead, I will look at a combination of Strokes Gained Off the Tee and Total Driving(Driv Dist + Driv Acc). After golfers find the fairway they will have medium to short approach shots for the most part as nine of the Par 4's come in under 450 yards. I will be looking at Strokes Gained Approach and with the greens having a lot of slope, there will weight put on Proximity as well. This is most definitely a second shot golf course. Birdie or Better % will also be a big this week as the winning score of the Wyndham since returning to Sedgefield in 2008 has ranged between -14 and -21. Par 4 scoring will also be a factor this week with 12 of them on the course and nine of them under 450 yards.
Sedgefield Country Club - Greensboro, NC
Par 70 - 7,127 Yards
Greens - Champion Bermuda
Last Five Winners
Other Stats I am Weighing: Strokes Gained: Around the Green, Strokes Gained: Putting
Bill Haas
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($10,200)
FanDuel ($9,300)
He sits fourth on my sheet when looking at course history but the three ahead of him(McDowell, Stegmaier, Na) have just a one tounry sample over the past five years. Since the tournament returned to Sedgefield in 2008, Haas has made the cut five straight and seven of the nine years with four Top 10 finishes. The course suits him very well as he is always ranking near the top of the Tour in Strokes Gained Tee to Green and it is always headlined by his near elite second-shot and around the green game. Looking deeper at the approaches, he ranks 11th and 10th on my sheet in GIR from 125-150 and 150-175 yards and is also Top 20 in Par 4 Scoring. The weak field has pushed his salary into the upper tier this week but he is still my favorite of the five.
Kevin Na
World Golf Ranking (#80)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,500)
FanDuel ($7,400)
While the top 34 players in salary this week have seen a rise in their salary compared to their season average, Na sits just a tick below at $7,500 and is my top value play. Na missed the cut here in 2008 when the tournament returned to Sedgefield but has a T18 in 2010 and T10 last season in two trips since then. I might also be a bit overlooked this week due to the recent form(2 MC in last 3 tournies) but fits the stats model very well. He does struggle off the tee at times but if that can be dialed in with 3 woods or driving irons, he ranks 4th on the sheet in SG: APP, 15th in SG: ATG, 11th in GIR from 150-175 yards, 13th in Par 4 Scoring and Top 20 in overall scoring average. I will be using him in all formats this week.
Also Consider: Luke Donald
Webb Simpson
World Golf Ranking (#)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($8,800)
Webb tops the ranks in my overall model this week as he is the only golfer to rank Top 10 in all four categories(History, Form, Stats, DK Avg Last 5). Despite coming off a T33 and T37 in his last two tournaments, he ranks 10th in the field when looking at DraftKings points over his last five tournaments. Looking at some of the key stats this week, Webb ranks 4th in SG: T2G, 6th in SG:APP, 4th in SG:ATG, 1st in Par Scoring, and 8th in Bogey Avoidance. Looking at the early FanShareSports Most Tagged List, Weeb only ranks 3rd in tags and T10 in start calls despite growing up in this area and winning the tournament back in 2011. He loves this tournament so much he even named his daughter after it(Wyndham Rose Simpson). Lock and load in all formats this week.
Chad Campbell
World Golf Ranking (#162)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($7,900)
FanDuel ($6,800)
Another weak field, another Chad Campbell sighting in the Top 10 of my overall standings. Since missing the cut at the PLAYERSin mid-May, Campbell has made seven of his last eight cuts including five Top 25 finishes. Digging even deeper and using the Fantasy National Golf Club tools I looked at Campbell's last 24 rounds overall and he ranks 17th in DK points, 34th in SG: OTT, 8th in SG: APP, 38th in SG: ATG and 52nd in SG: P. Not bad at all for a golfer who comes in the mid-tier of a weak field tourney. I will have shares in all formats.
Also Consider: Keegan Bradley(1st on sheet in form and 2nd in DK points last 5 tournaments)
Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#126)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,300)
FanDuel ($6,700)
Streelman ranks fifth overall in my model this week thanks to a Top 20 ranking in all four categories. It starts with the stats for me as he ranks 18th in SG: OTT, 29th in SG: APP, 9th in Par 4 Scoring, and 18th in Bogey Avoidance on my cheatsheet. As you know, my stats rankings are season long stats with a bit of 2016 baked in as well. I also like to look at the more recent stats and to do so use the FNGC tools. I looked at Streelman's ranking over his last 24 rounds(approx 6 tournies) and he ranks Top 30 in all Strokes Gained Metrics and 14th in DraftKings points. He is safe in all formats, especially on FanDuel where is comes in under $7K this week.
Byeong Hun An
World Golf Ranking (#65)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($8,200)
The first thing that stood out to me with AN was his Strokes Gained ranking in Off the Tee(4th) and Approach(10th). Combine the two for a Ball Striking 2.0 stat and he ranks 2nd in the field. In the $8K range on both sites(upper $8K on DK), I will be using him in GPP only this week due to his lack of driving accuracy(97th) and Bogey Avoidance(107th). The form hasn't been all that great either with just two Top 30 finishes in his last five tournaments but is a candidate to bounce back this week as he returns to Sedgefield CC where he finished T18 back in 2015.
Also Consider: Bud Cauley(10th in SG: T2G, 2nd in SG: APP,14th in Par 4 Scoring)
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($7,500)
I decided to add a fade call back to my article this week and it is headlined by Chez Reavie for a couple reasons. The obvious reason to fade Reavie here is due to the course history as he has not only missed the cut in his last three trips but has finished outside of 110th in each. Now, some will say he is coming in with good form(T22, T23, T39, T43, T16, T4 last six) but looking back his form is very similar in those years he missed the cut(2016, 2015, 2013). Combine form with his stats that also fit the model and his high tag count on FanShareSports and I think he is going to be one of the highest owned players this week. Something doesn't appear to fit his eye here and I will be fading him this week. Don't @ me when he wins as my last fade call was John Rahm at the Wells Fargo(solo 4th).
$10K+ Range
Coming off a career best finish in a Major(T7), Kisner leads all golfer sin tags for the Wyndham Championship as of Tuesday afternoon. In fact, three of the top tagged golfers this week all come from the $10K range. If you ar looking to pivot in the upper tier I do like both of Haas and Dufner this week.
$9K & $8K Range
This range is going to be a popular one I think as we already see four of the Top 10 in overall tags coming from this range with six of the players already sitting with double-digit start calls. I wrote about Kevin Streelman above in the stats section and love seeing him down the list in both his salary range and overall(20th in tags). A couple golfers who are not being mentioned very much to this point who could make great GPP pivots are Grayson Murray(8 tags with 3 start & 2 sit calls) and Shane Lowry(6 tags with 2 start & 1 sit call).
$7K & $6K Range
I also wrote about Chad Campbell above in the form portion of the article and it is pretty clear I am not the only one on him this week. He sits T6 in total tags and all 15 of them are coming in on the start side of things. My favorite GPP pivot from Campbell is Kevin Tway(4 tags with 3 start & 1 sit call) as he ranks 10th in SG: OTT, 24th in Par 4 Scoring and 5th in Par 5 Scoring. Going even deeper, I will also have some GPP exposure to Smylie Kaufman who currently sits on the outside looking in for the Playoffs and is coming off a T12 and T27 in his last two tournaments.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for five years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, MLB, NASCAR, NHL and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @Jager_Bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
image sources
Daily Fantasy DraftKings and FanDuel NBA Picks & Projections Playing NBA DFS Nightly? Join one…
Week 9 NFL DFS plays for DraftKings and FanDuel
Packed slate of NBA action on FanDuel and DraftKings
Thursday night NBA picks for DraftKings and FanDuel
Daily Fantasy NFL Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - Week 8 Sunday 10/27/24 Now’s…
A main slate of NBA DFS action on FanDuel and DraftKings.
View Comments
Very impressive report, nice!!
Thanks, Blair. Good luck this week.