Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/15/17

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Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner FD 10300 DK 12700
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @MIA
FD - 37.44 DK - 24.6

Where were all these arms on Monday night. We've got a handful of viable arms approaching ace level tonight, and we like them all. MadBum won't be coming cheaply, but he might be the safest play available. He's looked much more like his pre-motorcycle accident self lately, tossing 7 IP with 7 Ks in each of his last three starts. That's pretty good, and it's even better when you consider two of those starts were against the Dodgers and the Cubs. Miami isn't terrible against lefties, but they might seem like it in comparison to LA and Chicago, both of which rank in the top five for wRC+ vs. LHP this season. Meanwhile, the Marlins come in at 14th in wRC+ and wOBA, and 27th in ISO vs. lefties. The only downside we see (aside from having to face Giancarlo Stanton 3-4 times) is the fact that there's not a lot of Ks in this lineup. That limits the ceiling for Bumgarner to some degree, but we still like him in cash games, because he's got a more stable track record than Alex Wood and Danny Salazar, and a much better matchup than Jacob deGrom.

Alex Wood FD 9600 DK 9600
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @LAD
FD - 40.9 DK - 26.86

Ok, so, Bum might be safer, but holy cow. The price/matchup for Wood is gonna be tough to pass up. The Dodgers southpaw has continued to churn out quality starts and rack up wins, but he's been much less dominant lately. After fanning nearly 11 per 9 IP in his first 13 starts this season, he's averaged just 5.76 Ks/9 over this last five. Maybe that's just a small sample fluke or maybe it's a guy who threw only 60 innings last season hitting a wall. It'd be speculation on our part to assert either, but at these prices we feel fine taking on shot with him in any format. And, obviously, the fact that he's facing the White Sox has a lot to do with that. Earlier this summer, the White Sox had one of baseball's best offenses vs. LHP, but Jose Abreu and Avisail Garcia are pretty much the only guys left who inspire much fear and if any lineup is going to help Wood rediscover his bat-missing form, this might be the one -- six regulars with a 20+ K%, three regulars with a 25+ K% vs. lefties this season.

Marco Estrada FD 7600 DK 7400
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TOR
FD - 30.72 DK - 20.37

If you're looking to save some cash at SP2, Estrada deserves a long look. His season-long numbers are kinda trash, thanks to seven-start spell in June-July when he completely lost the plate, but he's been much more effectively lately. He's coming off seven shutout innings against the Yankees, and preceded that with three runs in 7 IP against the Astros and one run in 7 IP against the White Sox. All told, that's 21 IP, 4 runs, 14 hits and 18 Ks in his last three outings. We hate to draw arbitrary lines in the game log, but considering he gave up 28 runs and had 30 BBs over 33 IP in his previous six starts, something has clearly changed and he's looking much more like a guy we can use at these prices. Of course, he's no sure thing. Even when Estrada was rolling last season, the advanced numbers say he was due for some negative regression, and the Rogers Centre isn't the easiest spot on the planet for a fly-ball pitcher to ply his trade. But the Rays have the highest K% in the AL vs. RHP (25.5%), and we won't need much out of Estrada tonight to get value out of him.

Catcher

Victor Martinez FD 2600 DK 3300
Opponent - TEX (Griffin) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.4 DK - 7.93

V-Mart's almost always a FanDuel-only play, because that .111 ISO he's sporting this season is extra unappealing if it's filling your 1B slot. But on sites where you can play him elsewhere -- and especially at catcher -- Martinez deserves a long look tonight. The ball should be jumping on another sweltering night in Arlington (total has opened at 10), and A.J Griffin has a .382 wOBA allowed vs. left-handed bats since the beginning of last season. Martinez hasn't done much this season if you're just checking results, but bad luck appears to have played a big role (.361 xwOBA vs. .299 wOBA vs. RHP), so positive regression is still in the cards.

Yasmani Grandal FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.31 DK - 7.78

Grandal's overall numbers are down a tick in 2017, but there's still plenty of reason to buy in -- starting with his .226 ISO vs. RHP. That kind of upside is valuable at any position, but especially one as power-starved as catcher typically is. Add in the fact that Dodgers should give him some RBI opportunities and the fact that Miguel Gonzalez struggles vs. lefties (.351 wOBA, 5.64 xFIP) and we're willing to plug in Grandal in any contest format tonight.

First Base

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3600 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.49

Bartolo lives. After threatening to walk away from the game last month, the 44-year-old has been pretty OK lately. In fact, last time out he was significantly better than that, shutting out the Padres over 7 IP. Cool story and all -- who doesn't like 300-pound pitchers? -- but the projection system remains unimpressed. Colon is still lugging a .390 wOBA allowed vs. righties this season, while E-5 is coming in with a .356 wOBA and a .241 ISO in the split. In other words, the conditions for carnage are right, and you won't have to pay a ton for it.

Eric Thames FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.7 DK - 9.82
The projection system doesn't care much about slumps and/or hot streaks, so it was unconcerned with Thames' recent slump and the fact that he homered in back-to-back games over the weekend doesn't mean much in terms of this projection either. Still, though. It was nice to see, and he's in a good spot to keep it going tonight. When Ivan Nova struggles, it's typically against lefties (.354 wOBA, 1.8 HRs/9), and Thames has a .291 ISO at Miller Park.

 

Second Base

DJ LeMahieu FD 3500 DK 4600
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @COL
FD - 12.16 DK - 9.93

LeMahieu doesn't come with a boatload of upside on his own, but he presents a way to get reasonably priced exposure to Coors Field, and when he's facing a lefty, that's not a bad deal at all. He's got a .422 wOBA against southpaws this season, and a studly triple slash of .394/.444/.517 with more walks than Ks. Yeah, those numbers are built largely on singles, but that's kinda baked into the price. He'll be facing Sean Newcomb tonight, and while the rookie has flashed some decent stuff, he's having massive control issues (5+ BBs/9), and he leans heavily on his curveball, which is usually problematic in Coors Field.

Neil Walker FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.09
Jonathan Villar FD 2800 DK 4300
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @MIL
FD - 10.12 DK - 9.17

Take your pick of switch-hitting Brewers here. Or, Craig Counsell might make the decision for us -- if Travis Shaw returns to the lineup Tuesday, there may not be room on the infield for everybody. At any rate, we like both guys. Walker gets the slight edge, but if you need to save a couple hundred bucks in salary, we wouldn't hesitate to plug in Villar either. As we mentioned earlier, Ivan Nova has issues with lefties, and that could put him in danger in Milwaukee. The addition of Walker means he could be seeing 3-4 of them in the top half of the lineup, each with the potential to significant damage. Walker owns a .361 wOBA and .207 ISO vs. RHP this season, and while Villar has been a disappointment after last year's breakout campaign, he can still deliver upside with a little bit of pop and an awful lot of speed.

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Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @COL
FD - 11.45 DK - 9

Trevor Story is a virtual lock for us any time he's facing a lefty and coming at these prices -- and if he's also playing in Colorado, it's not even a question. I mean, sure, it's disconcerting that the dude strikes out this much (36%), but we're willing to live with it when this much upside is coming this cheap. Since debuting last season, Story has consistently raked against lefties, compiling a .404 wOBA and .316 ISO with numbers that are virtually equal year-over-year. Sure the chance for a goose egg is heightened by Newcomb's ability to miss bats, but it's an acceptable risk, all things considered.

Marcus Semien FD 3500 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.59 DK - 7.64

It's hard to imagine paying more for Semien in his cavernous home park on FanDuel, but the savings on DK make him worth considering as a punt/pivot. We're still waiting on the power we've come to expect from Semien to resurface, but in the meantime, his elevated walk rate (career high 12.8%) and willingness to run (a respectable 7 SB in 195 PAs) have kept him serviceable. Meanwhile, Jason Hammel has been thoroughly mediocre in 2017, with a 4.68 ERA and a 4.98 xFIP, and his Ks are on the decline against righties.

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @COL
FD - 16.44 DK - 12.54

Completing the triumvirate of righties you see nearly every time the Rockies face a lefty in Coors, Arenado is the priciest (and best) of the three. Playing him will stretch you thin in lineups where you're playing the most expensive pitchers, but that's always a little easier to finagle when we've got a 14-game slate to work with. He was sitting in Monday's game due to a hand issue, so you'll need to keep an eye out for updates on his status throughout the day, but just as a reminder of how incredible he's been against lefties this season, behold the statistical evidence: .411/.441/.821, .517 wOBA, .411 ISO.

Josh Donaldson FD 4100 DK 4600
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.78 DK - 10.43

The rewards are starting to pile up for those who kept the faith in Donaldson. He's now got four homers over the last week, and the season wOBA (.379) and ISO (.247) are now much closer to what we were expecting before injuries derailed his first half. He remains especially potent against lefties (.300 ISO in 2017, .290 career), and former first-rounder Blake Snell appears to have regressed this year, putting up a 4.69 ERA and 5.08 xFIP in 15 starts.

Consider: Matt Chapman, for salary relief.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 4100 DK 4800
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.68 DK - 11.19

Don't let the fact that Betts hasn't quite matched last year's monstrous production distract you -- we're still talking about one of the best all-around players in the game. Of course, he's defense isn't going to help us in DFS, but we're getting plenty of upside from Betts in the stats that count. He's on pace for something in the neighborhood of 25 homers and 25 steals, and he's flirting with a .200 ISO vs. RHP with a minuscule 10 K%. Mike Leake has had a fine season, but even when he's at his best, he's not the kind of guy we have to hide from (career 6.11 Ks/9, 4.11 FIP).

Nelson Cruz FD 4600 DK 5200
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.86 DK - 8.96

Nelson Cruz facing a lefty means he probably needs to be on your radar. Nelson Cruz facing Wade Miley means he probably needs to be in your lineups. Miley has a 5.37 FIP and a .366 wOBA allowed against righties this season, and while he'll benefit from the park shift to Seattle, Cruz has the kind of power than plays anywhere -- as he's demonstrated for the last three years running. He popped 40 HRs in each of his first two seasons with the Mariners, and while he'll have to pick up the pace some to reach that plateau again, his overall numbers show only modest decline. He's not quite destroying southpaws like he has in the past, but we're never going to turn our noses up at a .379 wOBA/.213 ISO.

Rhys Hoskins FD 2200 DK 3400
Opponent - SD (Lamet) Park - @SD
FD - 10.46 DK - 7.99

You can make a case to play pretty much anybody who's hitting the middle of the order when they're as cheap as Hoskins -- especially at his FD price. And yeah, the price is what's driving this pick more than anything, but the case for Hoskins doesn't end there. He profiles as a boom-or-bust kind of hitter -- at least early in his career -- and while all we've seen so far from him is the latter, he showed big-time pop in minors, with 67 HRs over the last two seasons in Double-A and Triple-A. We should note that the Phils' minor league affiliate in Reading plays in a well-known bandbox, but still. Dude's got power. Unfortunately, that power will be mitigated to some extent by Petco tonight, but the bigger issue here might be Lamet. The rookie has been blasted by lefties, but he's been tough on righties (3.27 xFIP, .225 wOBA), and Hoskins swings from the right side. That's a deterrent here for sure, but as far as punt plays go, you could do a lot worse.

Consider: Joc Pederson. Speaking of punt plays, he's coming in at $2.9K on DK.

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