Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/9/17

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Pitcher

Alex Wood FD 9500 DK 9700
Opponent - ARI (Greinke) Park - @ARI
FD - 34.03 DK - 22.51

Pitching on this slate is far from great. There is a bunch of risk in every guy and I'm unwilling to categorize either of these guys as safe. At the top of the pricing structure, you have Greinke, Verlander, and Alex Wood. All 3 guys are in tough-ish match-ups, but Wood has the most upside and has the lowest price. He's holding both lefties and righties to a sub .260 wOBA while striking out over 9 batters per 9. This matchup with the Diamondbacks in Chase Field isn't a great one, but it's doable. The D-Backs have ranked 26th in baseball against lefties with a .296 wOBA and crazy 25.8% K rate. You obviously have to be wary of Goldy, Pollock, and J.D. Martinez, who can smash lefties. On a slate without much to do at pitching, Wood gives you the immense upside needed to take down a tourney. Either way, he's going to garner ownership and rightfully so. He has a strikeout floor that's undeniable and an upside that fits the bill.

Rick Porcello FD 8000 DK 8200
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @TB
FD - 31.12 DK - 20.66

Like I said, pitcher is ugly. I certainly never thought I'd be rostering Rick Porcello. However, he's been pretty good and may be s but too cheap. Porcello has struggled with a .337 wOBA and it has a lot to do with the nearly identical .342 BABIP. Porcello is the same pitcher who won the Cy Young last year and while it's not one of the best arms in the book, he's a heavy favorite and almost certainly won't kill you. The match-up with the Rays is a pretty great one, as they K at a huge 24.9% rate. They do have some righty mashers and Porcello will have to avoid them. The price is great on Porcello and he lets you pay up for almost anyone you want. This is a very interesting slate and the difference could very well come at pitcher. Porcello is a cheap option that allows you have a unique lineup construction while maintaining the upside.

Early - Madison Bumgarner

Catcher

Victor Martinez FD 2300 DK 2500
Opponent - PIT (Nova) Park - @DET
FD - 9.94 DK - 7.58

When looking for a catcher on this slate, you can really go anywhere. You have about 6 solid options and I don't think the difference between 1 and 6 is as big as you'd think. Our top option on the slate is Victor Martinez, at least on FD. He is a better pure hitter than 95% of the listed catchers and gives you a very safe option at an incredibly safe price. Martinez will face off with Ivan Nova, who's exactly who we think he is. He's given up a .361 wOBA to lefties and has a lot of trouble with the long ball. Nova and the Pirates will struggle here and expect the Tiger lefties to take advantage. Martinez has been good against righties (.350+ wOBA) for about 100 years now and I don't need to see an updated swing to believe it. The Tigers aren't one of the top offenses, but remain in play at all times in tournaments against Ivan Nova.

Cameron Rupp FD 2400 DK 3200
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 8.4 DK - 6.48

For a slate with so many games, we sure do run into some dry spots. Catcher is definitely one of them. We're going to head over to the ATL and peek at Cameron Rupp, who's facing off with Sean Newcomb. Newcomb, a lefty, is a weak link against Rupp. He's allowed a .331 wOBA and has had trouble with the HR ball throughout the minors. Rupp on the other hand, is much better against lefties. He's held a .349 wKBA since 2015 and may actually be better than his numbers suggest. SunTrust Park has played very hitter-friendly and Vegas is expecting some runs to hit the board. Both Newcomb and Eickhoff have weak spots and can be targeted by either lefties or righties. Victor Martinez is the guy in cash games, but the merit in going off the board is there. Rupp will be low owned and can easily bang one out.

Early - Welington Castillo

First Base

Eric Thames FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIL
FD - 14.39 DK - 11.13

If anyone got through the last start of Bartolo Colon, it was rather comical. Balls were being stung around the field, but right at gloves. He was getting the luckiest of lucky breaks and has no shot of ever doing it again. Colon is not good against anyone at this point and a .386 combined wOBA is very telling of that. Eric Thames fits this matchup perfectly and is my top option at 1B. Thames, who loves to hit the inside fastball, is facing a guy who throws it more than anyone. Outside of his torrid start, Thames has stepped up against righties with a .385 wOBA. Someone will have to give here and personally, I like Thames way over Colon. Thames is my top pick for HR of the night and I don't think he's nearly as popular as he should be. Colon could easily be out of the game by inning 3 and this Brewers stack could take home a tourney.

Ryan Zimmerman FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.39 DK - 10.23

If you're not a big fan of Thames and want to get some upside, Ryan Zimmerman is a fantastic way to go. He has always murdered lefties and this year has been no different at all. He's held a .393 wOBA so far and excels against southpaws. Adam Conley and the Marlins enter tonight as very average opponents. Conley has allowed a .332 wOBA to righties while dealing with a huge HR issue. She gave up 23 of them in 2016 and looks to be on his way out. Zimmerman is one of the best bats on the slate against lefties and has to be considered in all formats. Adam Conley is as average as the get and I can't think of a world where I'm scared of him. Don't be afraid to target this entire Nats offense.

Early - Carlos Santana

Second Base

Yangervis Solarte FD 2500 DK 4100
Opponent - CIN (Wojciechowski) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.07 DK - 7.04

I had the Padres slated as my top stack of the night last night and they certainly came through. I won't be back on them tonight in full, but like Solarte as a 1-off at second base. Solarte is an extremely good hitter and while he's the clear 2nd behind Myers, it's not too far. Solarte, as a switch-hitter, has done a good job of learning to hit both sides of the plate. He is better against righties with a .343 wOBA. Asher Wojciechowski is one of the most average pitchers on this slate and not a guy I'll go out of my way to avoid or stack against. The Woj has allowed a .330 wOBA to both sides of the plate and struggles with the HR in the minors. Solarte is a great HR upside play moving from Petco Park to Great American, where the ball flies. Vegas has this game slated at 10.5 right now and some fireworks are certainly expected.

Howie Kendrick FD 2500 DK 4300
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @WSH
FD - 10.91 DK - 8.89

We looked at the Nats offense just a position ago with Ryan Zimmerman. Facing off with a lefty, the Nats righties are firmly in play. Howie Kendrick will draw the top of the order and has always been a lefty masher. So far in 2017, he's sitting at .402 wOBA. Adam Conley is the last guy to be afraid of and one of these guys will boom eventually. Howie Kendrick gives you a guy in the 1 or 2 hole for cheap in the middle of a very lethal lineup. Kendrick may not stand out to you as a name, but he can surely hit lefties and hit them damn well. The mini stack with Ryan Zimmerman, Kendrick, and Rendon all have individual upside and great upside as a collective. Kendrick is one of the safest options to go on a slate without many.

Early - Robinson Cano

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Shortstop

Zack Cozart FD 3300 DK 4600
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.55 DK - 9.06

We haven't touched on the Reds yet, but they are one of our top offenses on the slate. Facing off with Travis Wood, you know exactly who you want to target. Wood, who is pathetic against righties, brings Zack Cozart to the table. Cozart prides himself on his ability to hit lefties, which is currently sitting at a formidable .490 wOBA. Yes, you read that correctly. He's one of the top lefty specialists in baseball and should see playing time because of it. Cozart is my favorite option at SS and I don't think he's very popular either. He's not as big of a name as he should be and with his price being somewhat raised, I could see getting Cozart for around 15%, which is DFS heaven. There are a lot of different ways to go at SS and Cozart is easily my favorite.

Marwin Gonzalez FD 3500 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.48 DK - 9.1'

Marwin Gonzalez is going to hold a spot at each position on FanDuel before this season is over. Gonzalez has bounced from 1B to 3B and now the OF. He's worth every penny in this matchup with Miguel Gonzalez. Gonzalez has been putrid this year, but I'm a bit hesitant. While it's obvious that he's having some trouble, he hasn't been this bad for very long. Either way, the Astros are firmly in play as a tournament stack. As for Gonzalez as a stand alone, I love it. He's held a .427 wOBA against lefties and while that may be a bit inflated, it's quite obvious how good of a hitter he is. Gonzalez is a guy at SS who was a 1B about a month ago. The upside is there as he should be in either the 3 or 4 hole, behind Jose Altuve and Josh Reddick. All in all, this Astros team makes for an amazing team GPP stack.

Early - Marcus Semien

Third Base

Eugenio Suarez FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.58 DK - 9.12

Eugenio Suarez, like Zack Cozart, is far better against lefties. He always has been and it doesn't look like that'll change. Suarez has posted a .360 wOBA against lefties, compared to his .374 in 2016. Suarez is a very solid hitter and his age upside is prevalent at all times. Travis Wood is facing off with the Reds here and I have no idea why. He doesn't belong in the majors anymore and will be out of most games by the 3rd or 4th inning. Both Zack Cozart and Eugenio Suarez destroys lefties and face ms one in The Great American Ballpark. They are both fantastic plays and have more HR upside out of a team than normal. Both Cozart and Suarez make for excellent cash game and tournament plays.

Travis Shaw FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIL
FD - 12.29 DK - 9.46

It's simply hard to ignore a very, very good lefty against Bartolo Colon. No matter how many ways you look at it or break it down, Travis Shaw is squarely in play. Facing off with Colon, the upside is unquestioned. Shaw has sported a .402 wOBA against righties and while that may be a bit of a reach, his true talent sits somewhere in the .380s. Colon is one of the worst out there at this point and you can pencil in 4 runs in 5 innings. He has a 3 pitch arsenal with 2 average pitches and 1 that needs to be done away with. Please don't be afraid off by Colon and his weird, fluky start last time out. This Brewers team is one of the best stacks of the night and shouldn't be anywhere near as popular as they should be.

Early - Manny Machado

Outfield

Josh Reddick FD 3700 DK 5100
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.91 DK - 10.12
Derek Fisher FD 3000 DK 4600
Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.56 DK - 10.72

If there was a tag for "whoever starts in the OF", that would be listed here. We took Reddick and Fisher as the top 2 options, but you can go with whoever makes the cut in the OF. The Astros are a team we haven't touched on a ton yet, but are one of the top offenses. Miguel Gonzalez has taken a steep fall over the last few months and is having his worst season to date. He's allowed a .359 wOBA and has given up nearly 2 HR per 9 innings. Josh Reddick is my favorite of the bunch as he just obliterates righties toa .392 wOBA. Derek Fisher and Carlos Beltran come next, with Fisher a bit safer and Beltran having more power. The Astros are the Astros and they are going to put up runs. Against a bad pitcher, it's a great idea to get some exposure. The prices are fine and it's not a team that will get blanked. Your guys will have the opportunity to make big things happen.
Adam Duvall FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.04 DK - 8.57
Patrick Kivlehan FD 2300 DK 2800
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.17 DK - 7.27

The outfield isn't as beautiful as it is on most nights, so let's touch on a value play who makes more than enough sense. We want to target Travis Wood and we know that. He stinks against righties and has huge HR issues in one of the top ballparks for hitting in baseball. Eugenio Suarez and Zack Cozart are the 2 lefty-mashing righties, with Adam Duvall and Patrick Kivlehan in the OF. Duvall is slightly better against righties, but that's fine. It may keep people off of him and if we expect Wood to get trampled, we'll see a bullpen for 5 or 6 innings anyways and likely a righty in the process. As for Kivlehan, he should have some fun with Travis Wood. While the sample is too small, Kivelhan has shown his ability to hit lefties. He's also the guy who comes off the bench when a lefty comes in, so the skill is there. His price is down and while we don;t need to save a ton on this slate, you'll need to pay down a time or two if you want one of the elite pitchers. This is my favorite way to do it.

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4600 DK 5100
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @WSH
FD - 13.13 DK - 9.83

If you're looking to pay up for an OF'er, you have 3 choices. Those guys are Harper, Judge, and Stanton. Harper is facing off with a lefty and my least favorite of the bunch, but we all know he can send 2 to the moon without thinking. Aaron Judge and Stanton are both in excellent spots with Stanton getting the slight edge. First things first, Stanton is a lot better than Judge. As a fan who dislikes Stanton, I will say there are few hitters more mesmerizing to watch. Against lefties, he's simply a top 3 hitter in baseball. Gio Gonzalez is a solid southpaw through and through, but is nothing to worry about for Stanton. He will dictate each AB and if I didn't already go with Thames, I'd plug Stanton in as my HR pick of the night. Stanton has posted a .400+ wOBA against lefties for 4 years now and won't stop anytime soon. He hits literal rockets against them and even if it stays in the park, is very unlikely to be caught.

Early - Matt Joyce, Shin-Soo Choo, Nomar Mazara, Mike Trout, Cole Kalhoun, Adam Jones

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