Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/4/17

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Pitcher

James Paxton FD 10100 DK 12200
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 33.58 DK - 22.18

There are more than enough pitching options tonight, so it'll be interesting to see where the ownership comes in. James Paxton and the Mariners travel to Kansas City to face off with the Royals in Kauffman Stadium. Paxton has been absolutely dominant all season long and July was his best month. Paton is striking out 10.5 batters per 9 innings and walking just 2.5. He has also held a .190 wOBA against lefties and a .290 against righties, so nobody beats him up. This entire Royals team is very underwhelming and while they can occasionally scratch some runs together, it doesn't make them a strong offense. The Royals have ranked 22nd in baseball against lefties with a .307 wOBA and 19% K rate. They will have trouble doing anything to Paxton and his dynamic 4-pitch arsenal. Lorenzo Cain is the only guy I'm scared of and he's nowhere near as dangerous as some other bats in this league against lefties. If you're not a fan of Paxton, deGrom, Bumgarner, and Darvish are all worthy of consideration. None of these guys will be too highly owned, either, so you can go with who you really like and not let numbers cloud your judgment.

Jacob Faria FD 8100 DK 8500
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @TB
FD - 36.97 DK - 24.43

If you're looking to pay down a bit, you have to have some interest in Jacob Faria. He's one of the best young starters in baseball, who has made a name for himself during this season. HE's dominated both sides of the plate and has limited big innings very well. In just 60 innings of work, Faria has sported a .,273 combined wOBA and is striking out batters at an 8.51 /9 rate. Faria and the Rays will host the Brewers tonight, who are far from a scary offense. Against righties, the Brew Crew have sported .317 wOBA and strikeout at a league-high 25.4%. Eric  Thames, Ryan Braun, and Travish Shaw are the 3 guys who can do damage, though they strikeout a ton and can go 0-for-4 with ease. Faria is priced down a bit and should be able to give you a very nice outing at a very nice price. He'll also help you pay up for some bats, which could end up being very important with some high-priced offenses on the slate.

Catcher

Brian McCann FD 2700 DK 3100
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @HOU
FD - 5.44 DK - 4.13
Evan Gattis FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.1 DK - 8.48

Cameron Rupp FD 3000 DK 4800
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 8.15 DK - 6.28

I won't often touch on bats in Coors Field, because they are just too obvious. I don't think the Phillies are too obvious on this slate and I think you can get a few of the guys for under 20-25% owned. This Phillies offense is still lethal and in Coors Field, they can put up 10 runs with ease. With that being said, we know how bad the Phillies are. They can be playing in a little league stadium and score 0 runs with how they play sometimes. They K a ton and aren't too good at stringing hits and runs together. They are more of a 1-off power play, which works perfectly for Coors Field. Cameron Rupp in particular, has always hit lefties much better than righties. He's held a .356 wOBA against them this year, following a .415 in 2016. The power is there and the price is down, at least on FanDuel. I do prefer the Astros just slightly more, but Rupp brings 2 HR upside in Coors Field and shouldn't be more than 20% owned. On DraftKings, you can do much better. They do a great job of hiking Coors FIeld prices up to the point where you can't even consider it.

First Base

Miguel Cabrera FD 3400 DK 3600
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.86 DK - 8.98

After Kevin Gausman looked to fall off a cliff, he has slowly climbed himself back up. While I'm not saying he's back to his old name, he's certainly not the worst pitcher in baseball anymore. He's still a guy I want to target quite a lot. The Orioles and Gausman will host the Tigers tonight and in turn Miguel Cabrera. Cabrera has been kind of annoying this year with inconsistency, but the numbers are there. He's posted a .336 combined wOBA and a .260 BABIP against righties won't help. While Miggy is nowhere near the guy he was a few years ago, he's still one of the most balanced hitters in baseball. Camden Yards is nowhere near big enough for the Miggs and I could see him putting one out easily. The price is very fair and you can fit him comfortably with a high-priced pitcher and stack. At just around $3500, don't hesitate on taking a shot with the best hitter around.

Hanley Ramirez FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.94 DK - 10.07

The Red Sox are going to be one of the top offenses on this entire slate. They will play at home in Fenway Park, where the ball flies. The Sox are projected to put up 5.72 runs, which is the highest outside of Coors Field. They face off with Carlos Rodon, who is a very young arm still trying to figure things out. He's posted a .355 wOBA against righties so far this year and certainly hasn't shown any promise. He walks far too many batters and ends up falling behind in the count early. Against a lineup like this, you don't want to fall behind to a Hanley with runners on base. He will make you pay. Rodon is obviously talented and it's why he's even in the league at such a young age. He just can't control any of his pitches and ends up being forced to lay a fastball over the plate in hopes to get a strike called. Hanley on the other hand, is a lefty killer. He's held a .381 wOBA over the last 2 years and should start hititng moe XBH's this season. His peripherals look exactly the same and the surface stats should follow soon. The price on Hanley is just crazy and I can see the argument for playing him everywhere with it.

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.71 DK - 10.13

Along with the Red Sox, the Twins come in as one of the slate's top offenses. Martin Perez is always a guy I look to target and tonight is no different. Facing off with Perez, the right-handed Twins are more than in play. Perez has allowed a .371 wOBA to righties and hasn;t shown much of any promise. He has always given up a ton of HR's and this year is no different with 12 in 80 innings. Target Field may not be as hitter-friendly as Globe Life Park, but it did rank inside the top 12 in 2016. As for Dozier, he;s one of my top plays on the entire slate. Against lefties, Dozier has sported a .394 wOBA. He not only hits them for average, but has the 30 HR upside as well. His price is fair and I personally will have as close to 100% as possible. Dozier always go a bit more ignored than he should and this is one of my favorite match-ups to date.

Josh Harrison FD 2900 DK 3500
Opponent - SD (Wood) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.83 DK - 9

Josh Harrison against a lefty is one of my favorite things in baseball. Harrison has singlehandedly won me a lot of money against lefties. He's a guy that I play even against elite lefties, as I trust his skill. If you're ever able to watch a Harrison at-bat against a lefty, you will see what I'm talking about. He will battle every at-bat and even if he does get out, it will be a huge hassle and often take 5-7 pitches. As a Cubs fan, Harrison is one of those guys you don't like being in your division. He's super scrappy and a way better hitter than the general public thinks. Harrison has posted a .366 wOBA against lefties this year and hit 11 homers. PNC Park is always a tough place to hit for power, but Harrison is far from reliant on it. He lives in the gaps and should come up with ducks on the pond. Travis Wood is a poor lefty who may make it through 3 o 4 innings. The Padres bullpen is weak and the Pirates should put up a few runs at the very least. Make sure Harrison is high in the order as the pirates are known to do some weird things with the order.

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Shortstop

Xander Bogaerts FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.02 DK - 9.6

Shortstop is a pretty weak position on this slate, so it's nice to have a very strong option in Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is as consistent as they get. While he will rarely wow you with his bat (6 HR), he'll also rarely disappoint you. Bogaerts is a fantastic contact hitter and has held a .294 AVG against lefties on the season. The power should also come eventually, as Bogaerts has never fallen into such a power drought. Either way, this price is just crazy. He needs to up towards $4000 on this slate and is a lock and load in the low 3's. Facing Carlos Rodon, you have to love this offense. Rodon has sported a .356 wOBA against righties and has some of the biggest HR issues I have ever seen. Fenway Park is a bam box for righties and I'm suspecting a bunch of runs out of the Sox, as is Vegas.

Eduardo Escobar FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.11 DK - 7.95

This Twins offense is one I'm all over. Shortstop, as mentioned, is very weak. If I'm not playing Bogaerts, I'm looking for a guy to fit into my stack. I plan on playing a lot of Twins and Eduardo Escobar should be in the middle of them all. Escobar is actually a pretty solid hitter and can get it done in a lot of different ways (HR, SB). His versatility is valuable, though not expensive on FD where can get him for just $2900. Martin Perez is the definition of a gas can and a guy you can rely on to struggle start in and start out. Escobar has posted a .374 wOBA against lefties and looking through his peripherals, nothing looks more legitimate. Ths is a good young player and people look at him as a fill-in guy. He is effective and could end up being the secret to a Twins stack. All in all, I like Bogaerts a bit more, but see the argument for going Escobar in all formats. I will do so myself in many spots.

Third Base

Kyle Seager FD 3300 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @KC
FD - 10.34 DK - 7.91

We haven't touched on these Mariners just yet, but were very close to doing so with Cano at 2B. He's very much in play and makes for a tremendous elite option on the high-end. This entire Mariners team is in play here as they face off with Jason Hammel. You can pair him with Kyle Seager, who we'll touch on now. Seager has always destroyed righties and this season is no different. Hammel has always been a pretty good pitcher, but looks to have hit a wall. He's posted a .331 wOBA against both sides of the plate and while his numbers against lefties have been good for no reason, they will go right back down before long. His xFIP is above 5.00 on both sides and a K rate below 20%. Kyle Seager is a very consistent bat against righties (.361 wOBA) and does a good job of driving in runs. The HR upside is there as well and with #B always having so many options, he could find himself in the 10-15% range, which is ideal in tournaments.

Maikel Franco FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @COL
FD - 11.3 DK - 8.69

No matter who the pitcher, Maikel Franco will always be in play when in Coors Field. As a guy who relies on HR's and hits high, looping moonshots, this is the perfect park for Franco. It fits his game perfectly and I would suspect 40 homers if he was a Rockie. THe match-up is tremendous and the price is just as good. Kyle Freeland, a slow throwing lefty, is nothing to be afraid of. He's given up a .333 wOBA to righties and has allowed 12 homers in less than 100 innings. Franco, who has been up and down since entering the league, has never lost his touch against lefties. He's held a .341 career wOBA and is only making improvements each season. Coors Field is obviously a bam box and Vegas expects the lifeless Phillies to put up some runs. Franco is a lethal bat in the middle of the order who's fairly priced and should come in under 20% owned. He is very close to Seager for me and I still haven't decided which way I'll go in cash games. It always entices me when I see a Coors Field stack not being talked about like usual.

Outfield

Mookie Betts FD 4100 DK 4700
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BOS
FD - 13.93 DK - 11.39
Chris Young FD 2400 DK 3400
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.15

While Carlos Rodon looked good in his last start(6.2 IP, 1 ER, 9 K), I am not buying into the notion he can do it two starts in a row. It's the same old story with Rodon as he has electric strikeout upside(11.61 K/9) but struggles big time with control as he is walking nearly six batters per nine. The best part about targeting him is the fact he gives up a ton of home runs(23.3% HR/FB rate) including at least one in four straight starts. Betts is the clear #1 choice here as he carries all the tools necessary to put up a ton of points. He hits for average, walks more than he strikes out, drives in runs and has speed on the base paths. If you are looking for value, especially on FanDuel, roll with Chris Young who has been much better vs. left-handed pitching for his career. He will gain even more value if the Red Sox move him up the lineup tonight. The Red Sox are in a great spot once again and have been red hot scoring six or more runs in four of their last five games and are safe in all formats.

Robbie Grossman FD 2800 DK 3600
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.62 DK - 8.27

If it's value you are after in one of your outfield positions, consider Robbie Grossman of the Twins. The pick definitely hinges on the batting order as he has bounced around from top to bottom but gets a great matchup vs. Martin Perez who has been bad all season but even worse since the All Star break. In four starts in the second half, he has allowed 31 hits in 24.1 innings with 19 earned runs and four long balls while striking out 10(3.7 K/9) and walking six(2.22 BB/9). His best value comes on FanDuel where he sits in the sub $3K range and allows you to load up at other positions.

Josh Reddick FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.58
Carlos Beltran FD 3200 DK 4100
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.41 DK - 7.98

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