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The top stack of the day is once again the Rockies who have an implied run total over six. They let us down a bit last night scoring just five runs as the Mets took game one scoring 10 runs of their own. I am going right back to the well tonight as the Rockies get another top matchup at home vs. one of the worst pitchers on the slate. Rafael Montero has bounced back and forth from the rotation to the bullpen all season and sits with a 5.72 ERA and 4.83 xFIP. Up until recently, he hadn't given up much power with a sub 10% HR/FB rate but has given up four home runs in his last two starts vs. the A's and Mariners and now has to deal with Coors Field and the thin Colorado air.
Top Hitters to Stack: Charlie Blackmon, Nolan Arenado, Mark Reynolds, Gerardo Parra
On the main slate, I gravitate to the highest Vegas total of the night(10.5) and actually don't mind either side of this one. I lean the home team who has an implied run total of around 5.7 which trails only the Red Sox tonight. The Orioles have had a frustrating season sitting a game under .500 overall and middle of the pack offensively but present a ton of upside as a Top 10 team when looking at home runs this season(149). They are without their cleanup hitter in Mark Trumbo but have seen their star Manny Machado turn around his season since the All Star break as he is hitting .385 with a .416 wOBA and 162 wRC+ in the second half. Look for them to roll over the Tigers tonight in a high-scoring game.
Top Hitters to Stack: Manny Machado, Jonathan Schoop, Chris Davis, Welington Castillo
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There is some risk of rain at this point(40%) so we will want to monitor the radar throughout the day but if the game is a go, I love the Twins for a sneaky stack tonight. They have struggled overall in the second half with a team .299 wOBA and 83 wRC+ which should only help keep their ownership low but what I really like is the opportunity presented with the pitching matchup. They face A.J. Griffin tonight who makes his return after sitting out since the end of May with an intercostal muscle strain. Before going on the DL, Griffin really struggled with a 5.77 ERA, 5.50 xFIP and had given up 17 earned runs in his last three starts with eight(yes 8!) home runs against. More good news. If he only lasts a few innings the Rangers will turn to their bullpen which ranks near the bottom of the league(4.50 xFIP, 13.5% HR/FB rate).
Top Hitters to Stack: Brian Dozier, Robbie Grossman, Miguel Sano, Eduardo Escobar
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