Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/2/17
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Pitcher
Dallas Keuchel FD 9600 DK 10500
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @HOU
FD - 35.51 DK - 23.33
Keuchel finally had a bad start last time out, after dominating for months without a hiccup. He'll look to get back on track tonight and has a fantastic match-up to do so. The Rays will travel to Houston and face off with the 'Stros in neutral Minute Maid Park. Keuchel is a lot better at home with a .204 wOBA and 8.31 K/9. Keuchel has just obliterated lefties at a .122 wOBA clip. They might as well stay in the dugout. Righties on the other hand, have posted a .270, which is still very low. As a team, the Rays are absolutely pitiful against lefties. Not only do they strikeout at a league-high 25% rate, but they can't hit when they make contact either, as proven by a .307 wOBA. Keuchel is the most expensive option on the board and he's the safest. He could end up being very popular, but I think the ownership ends up getting spread out for the most part.
Jake Arrieta FD 9400 DK 10300
Opponent - ARI (Godley) Park - @CHC
FD - 34.14 DK - 22.42
In cash games, you need to pay up on this slate. There are no safe options down low and we do have the offenses to pay down with. Jake Arrieta may not be just as expensive as Keuchel, but the upside is identical. Arrieta has thrown no-hitters and struck out double digit batters multiple times. He's still a dominant arm that will mash weak competition. His numbers have dipped slightly against lefties with a .328 wOBA, though a .281 with a 9 K/9 more than makes up for it. The Cubs host the Diamondbacks in Wrigley, who are used to playing in the hitter-friendly Chase Field. They are much worse against righties and rely on the bats of David Peralta and Jake Lamb. Outside of those 2, everyone in the lineup is better against lefties. Arrieta will be less popular than Keuchel and I see them as very similar situations. He's a bit cheaper as well and could open up another bat along the way.
Catcher
Brian McCann FD 2800 DK 3900
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @HOU
FD - 5.37 DK - 4.08
Evan Gattis FD 2900 DK 4200
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.37
While you can take one of these guys and prefer him just slightly, they are very, very close. Both of these guys are pretty similar hitters against righties and it will come down to price and lineup order for me. They'll be facing off with a young righty in Austin Pruitt, who has been bad against everyone. Pruitt has sported a .364 combined wOBA and a 32.5% hard contact rate. The Astros are obviously one of the most lethal offenses in the nation and you have to expect a younger arm to struggle quite a bit. While the Astros will likely go overlooked, they have as much upside as anyone and both of these catchers are 2 HRs away from binking you a tournament.
Francisco Cervelli FD 2500 DK 2600
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.73 DK - 6.85
When the Pirates are holding a 6.34 opening implied run total, you should probably target them. The Reds might also want to ask themselves what in the world they are doing as a franchise when Robert Stephenson is on the mound. Stephenson has allowed a .380+ wOBA to both righties and lefties for 2 straight years and has shown no signs of improving. Francisco Cervelli, a righty, hits righties a lot better than lefties with a .361 wOBA. PNC Park is always going to be difficult to hit homers in, but you have to make it work and this Pirates team is one that can do that. Cervelli is fairly priced around the industry and makes for a great play in both cash games and tournaments.
First Base
Cody Bellinger FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.31 DK - 8.04
Cody Bellinger is a bat you have to love tonight. As we know with Julio Teheran, he struggles against righties. He always has and always will. So far in 2017, lefties have posted a .344 wOBA. Teheran has also given up an astronomical 26 homers already. He's clearly still struggling and with SunTrust Park playing so strong for lefties, both Seager and Bellinger must be on your radar. Bellinger is the real deal and there's no reason to think some negative regression is impending. He's posted a very normal .296 BABIP. Against righties, Bellinger has managed to hit 20 homers and hold an elite .398 wOBA. He's my top spot for an HR at 1B and while he may not be the most affordable option, there is always a way to figure it out. The Dodgers should definitely be able to put up some runs in Atlanta.
Mark Reynolds FD 3900 DK 5400
Opponent - NYM (Flexen) Park - @COL
FD - 14.24 DK - 10.89
I could have filled this entire article with Coors Field bats. From Nolan Arenado to Curtis Granderson, everyone is truly in play. We'll focus on the Rockies side here and look at Mark Reynolds. He faces off with Chris Flexen, who is a prospect. He's a prospect that's failed thus far. He's going to stumble as he gets acclimated to the majors and Coors Field is definitely not the spot to find confidence. The Rockies hold the teams highest total on the board and will likely end up over 6 or 7 runs. Mark Reynolds has been much better against righties this year with a .401 wOBA backed up by fantastic peripherals. I expect the Rockies to put up a bunch of runs and you should find exposure one way or another.
Second Base
Robinson Cano FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Cashner) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.69 DK - 9.75'
We actually won't touch too much on these Mariners, even though they do hold an implied team total over 5. Robinson Cano is the top individual at-bat on the team. He's held a .358 wOBA against righties this year and moves from Safeco Field to Globe Life Park, where the ball flies. He also has the honor of facing off with Andrew Cashner. Cashner has found a way to be decent, but a .270 BABIP may have been a bit involved up to this point. He has a low BABIP against and will start seeing some negative regression. The Mariners hold a 5.63 implied team total and are expected to put up some serious runs. Cashner is a bad pitcher and you don't really need to worry about who's coming out of the bullpen. Cano is a very solid option in both cash games and tournaments and his price is more than fair.
Jonathan Schoop FD 4000 DK 4100
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.82
Jonathan Schoop has taken 2017 by storm. He's been one of the more impressive batters in baseball and has shown so signs of slowing down. Schoop has been good against both sides of the plate so for in 2017. However, he's been better against lefties with a .397 wOBA. He's hit 24 homers on the season and has more upside than anyone else at the position. He faces off with Jason Vargas, who is more than due for regression. We'll dive in a bit deeper, but just know these O's are firmly in play. Camden Yards is a much better park for hitting than Kauffman Stadium and Vegas expects Vargas to have some issues. Schoop will go under-owned and can easily hit one out in this park. He can hit 2 out.
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Shortstop
Corey Seager FD 3600 DK 5500
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.82
We touched on Cody Bellinger at 1B and mentioned Seager there. They are often in play on the same days, due to them both destroying righties. Seager has actually been better against lefties on this season, but a .370 wOBA against righties is nothing to be ashamed of. He's stroked 18 homers and holds one of the leagues highest hard contact rates at 33%. Seager and the Dodgers face off with Julio Teheran, who isn't too tough of an arm. He's dynamic against righties and absolutely horrible against lefties. It's as simple as that. With a .363 wOBA dating back to 2015, Teheran needs a lot of work against lefties. This is a big ballpark upgrade as SunTrust Park has played to an extreme lefty advantage. Both Seager and Bellinger should dominate and are in play in for both cash games and tournaments.
Marcus Semien FD 3400 DK 3900
Opponent - SF (Moore) Park - @SF
FD - 9.91 DK - 7.9
There is no pitcher in baseball who finds more barrels than Matt Moore. He leads the league at nearly 14% and it's a big reason why he has struggled so much this year. Against righties, Moore has sported a .327 wOBA and has allowed 12 homers. Marcus Semien on the other hand, is better against lefties. He's held a .341 wOBA since last year and is proving to be the real deal every day he sticks around. Semien is always in play for an HR and he's a guy I adore in tournaments. He can hit both sides of the plate and has the rare upside of 2 HRs in tournaments. Matt Moore is way overrated as a pitcher and does a fantastic job of finding the middle of the bat. Certainly not the part you want if you're Moore.
Third Base
Manny Machado FD 3700 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.21 DK - 10.18
Looking at Jonathan Schoop at 2nd is something you should definitely do. He has a phenomenal match-up with Jason Vargas and can park one in the seats on any given night. You then get to Manny Machado, who is on a different level. Machado is an elite hitter against lefties and has been since entering the league with a .351 wOBA. Machado also hits much better at home in Camden Yards, as evidenced by the .41 point wOBA difference. While I won't sit here and say Jason Vargas in the worst pitcher ever, he's not very good at all. He's posted a 5.17 xFIP and has embraced his struggles. He's allowed a .335 wOBA to lefties and is slowly getting sucked in against righties. Either way, Machado is one of the top options on the board and right up there with Beltre for 3B of the night.
Adrian Beltre FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.12 DK - 10.83
Beltre against a lefty is something I will never get old of. He just obliterates them to another level and has the type of consistency you love in both cash games and tournaments. Beltre has posted a .397 wOBA against lefties on the year and the power has yet to come. Ariel Miranda isn't a guy I necessarily like to pick on, but I also don't avoid him. He has some struggles against righties and has allowed a .308 wOBA and 20 home runs allowed. Globe Life Park is a run-inducing ballpark in the summer and Vegas has this one currently slated at 11. Make sure you get some exposure to at least 1 of these teams in Arlington.
Outfield
Starling Marte FD 3100 DK 4000
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.79 DK - 10.26
Adam Frazier FD 2700 DK 4300
Opponent - CIN (Stephenson) Park - @PIT
FD - 8.79 DK - 7.52
We touched on the Pirates a very long time ago with Francisco Cervelli, who is a great play in the Pirates order. We have Marte and Frazier listed here, but you can certainly add McCutchen as well. He hits righties plenty and has the ability to help us on the base paths. Both Marte and Frazier have sported +.362 wOBA's against righties since the start of 2015. They both have power and base stealing upside, coupled with the safety they have against Robert Stephenson. Stephenson, as we've mentioned, is easily one of the worst pitchers around. He's allowed a .380 wOBA to both sides of the plate over the last 2 years and has been able to shut down nobody. Marte and Frazier are 2 guys with extreme upside and safety. They will also be a bit lower owned as I don't think the Pirates will be one of the teams everyone looks at to start. Either way, they have the upside and come in very fairly priced.
Josh Reddick FD 3500 DK 4700
Opponent - TB (Pruitt) Park - @HOU
FD - 12.06 DK - 9.46
We've basically ignored the Astros since catcher. Brian McCann and Even Gattis are 2 of the best options at catcher and have a stronghold on the Astros exposure for me. Reddick may be able to sneak in a little bit and surprise some in tournaments. Reddick has been absolutely dominant against righties for this year with a .362 wOBA and 10 homers. Austin Pruitt is a 27-year-old who is just making his way into the majors. He's been pretty bad against both sides of the plate and hasn't shown any sign of shutting the Astros down. You could also throw George Springer and Carlos Beltran here. They each have insane power against righties and can hit one out. As for Reddick in particular, he should be in the 2 or 3 hole. He will get opportunities to produce and it will just come down to whether or not he can come through.
Michael Conforto FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @COL
FD - 12.86 DK - 9.83
I wanted to make sure we at least touched on a New York Met in Coors Field. I could have listed about 5 of them, but it's overkill. We all know hitters in Coors Field are squarely in play. The Mets face off with Tyler Chatwood, who is not very good at home. He's allowed a .353 wOBA against lefties that dips to a .409 in Coors Field. He's not a bad pitcher, but can't use his off-speed effectively against lefties. Michael Conforto shouldn't have too much trouble, though he may be rusty. Conforto has obliterated righties with a .423 wOBA and there's no reason to think it's anything other than the real deal. Conforto is in play in both cash games and tournaments and won't be popular in the slightest outside of Coors stacks.
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image sources
- Jake Arrieta: (AP Photo/John Minchillo)
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Os are Hot right now! Good call VS. Vargas