Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 8/1/17

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Pitcher

Max Scherzer FD 11500 DK 13200
Opponent - MIA (O'Grady) Park - @MIA
FD - 41.99 DK - 27.66

There's no shortage of live arms on tonight's 15-game slate, but for SP1 purposes in cash games, Scherzer is the first one we're turning to. He's opened up as a -200 favorite, gets a forgiving park, and compared to the other elite ace on the slate -- Chris Sale -- he's got the easier matchup. The Marlins haven't been terrible against RHP this season, but they're below average with a 97 wRC+. Meanwhile, Scherzer remains one of the best pitchers in the game. He ranks among the top five in Ks/9 (12.45), ERA (2.23), FIP (2.83) and xFIP (3.08). He's also been one about as close as you'll find to a sure thing, with 9+ Ks in 15 of his 21 starts and 19 outings with at least 6 IP. Of course, he'll cost you, but the safety/upside package you get with Scherzer is worth it.

Marcus Stroman FD 8500 DK 11000
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 32.57 DK - 21.52

We like Stroman in this spot -- kind of a lot. The problem is so does the DK algorithm (and so does Vegas, for that matter). He's priced up too much to be an SP2, and we're not sure the upside is fully there to keep pace as an SP1. But the price on FanDuel and the fact that we've got high-priced Coors bats to consider on this slate, means we have to think about Stroman in all formats tonight. He's the heaviest favorite on the board (-215) as of Monday night, and he's facing a trade-depleted White Sox lineup that wasn't very good against RHP to begin with (28th in wRC+). And there's a lot to like about Stroman, regardless of matchup. He's been strong in 2017, with a 3.08 ERA more or less supported by a 3.62 FIP. The issue, as we alluded to, is Ks. He's only fanning about 7.5 per 9 IP, so we're going to have to count on the White Sox to help us out there -- and they just might. The lineup they rolled out Monday night had a 28 K% vs. RHP this season, which is absurdly high. For reference, the Padres' 25.4% K rate vs. righties is the highest in the league this year. That should lift the ceiling a bit for Stroman, but he only has two career games with double-digit Ks, so there's a limit to what we can reasonably expect here. The real attraction is the discount we're getting compared to top-shelf guys.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.42 DK - 9.55

Ok. So that DK pricing is kinda prohibitive for cash games, where you're going to want to spend on your pitching. And even on FanDuel, if you're going with Scherzer or Sale, playing Sanchez is going to make things tight. But we're going to go ahead and write him up, because he's the projection system's top play in terms of raw points, and the FD salary is totally doable if you're going with Stroman. Sanchez is starting to see his reverse splits even out a little bit, but he's still doing most of his damage against RHP, with a .395 wOBA through his first 400+ career PAs. He should have a chance to build on those numbers against Anibal Sanchez, who briefly looked semi-not-terrible after stint in the minors, but has since reverted to garbage. Over the last calendar year, he's giving up a .367 wOBA and 2.5 HRs/9 vs. righties, which is enough to make him one of the top guys to attack on this slate (or any other).

Russell Martin FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.15 DK - 9.21

Martin's much more affordable, hits near the top of the order, has a similarly favorable park, and gets to face Mike Pelfrey, which is never a bad thing. The White Sox righty has a .330 wOBA allowed and 4.81 xFIP vs. RHP since the beginning of 2016, so the projection system always perks up when he's on the mound. Martin also handles RHP well, especially in the back half of his career. Over his last 400 PAs vs. righties, he's carrying a .354 wOBA and .206 ISO.

First Base

Cody Bellinger FD 3800 DK 4700
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 12.59 DK - 9.82

The Braves are calling on Lucas Sims to make his big-league debut on Tuesday. The 23-year-old is a solid prospect with some nice swing-and-miss stuff, but he's also got a history of command and homer issues. And if he thought it was difficult to keep the ball in the yard in the International League, just wait until he sees one of the top offenses in baseball. Bellinger always comes with some risk thanks to his 27 K%, and that's heightened by the fact that Sims had more than 10 Ks/9 each of the last two seasons in Triple-A. But the upside makes Bellinger a worthwhile play, especially in SunTrust Park, which seems to play well for left-handed power. He has 28 HRs through his first 85 games in the majors, and he's dominating RHP, with a .396 wOBA and .354 ISO.

Kendrys Morales FD 2800 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.74

We like Morales much more on FanDuel, where he's coming at a nice discount. He's in play on DK, too, but we see him as more of a GPP guy there. For the second straight year, he hasn't been great against RHP. But he's got a nice .195 ISO in the split, and the .300 wOBA looks like the product of bad luck, considering his .244 BABIP and .360 xwOBA. Meanwhile, lefties are putting up a .387 wOBA and 1.7 HRs/9 vs. Pelfrey since the beginning of last season, so even if you're skittish about playing hitters against a groundball guy, we don't see any big reason for concern with Morales.

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD 3100 DK 3700
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.99 DK - 8.45

Yep. We're going with the rare LvL matchup in a cash game. Cano's production vs. southpaws has noticeably dropped off this year, but he's probably still closer to the .315 xwOBA than his .288 actual wOBA, the latter being a product of a hard-luck .253 BABIP. But aside from the fact that Cano has handled lefties just fine for most of his career (.335 wOBA) we're more interested in the pitcher/park combo. Globe Life is a great place to hit, especially during the hot and humid days of summer, and Nick Martinez is a pretty excellent guy to pick on in any season. He's given up a .383 wOBA and 5.90 xFIP vs. lefties this yer, and lest you think it's the product of a small sample, check out his career numbers in the split: .353/5.67.

Oops. I'm dumb and Nick Martinez is right-handed. But maybe he should try southpaw on for size, because what he's doing isn't working. At any rate, this bit of misguided research is still valid:

Globe Life is a great place to hit, especially during the hot and humid days of summer, and Nick Martinez is a pretty excellent guy to pick on in any season. He's given up a .383 wOBA and 5.90 xFIP vs. lefties this yer, and lest you think it's the product of a small sample, check out his career numbers in the split: .353/5.67.

As for Cano, he hasn't been able to match last year's monster power numbers, but he's on pace for another excellent season with an extremely low K rate (11%) and solid production vs. righties (.353 wOBA, .232 ISO). Righties. Righty. Nick Martinez is right-handed. Righty.

 

Chase Utley FD 2700 DK 4100
Opponent - ATL (Sims) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.35 DK - 8.08
This one's pretty much FanDuel only in cash games, and even there it's contingent upon Utley getting a spot at the top of the order. And let's hope he does, because otherwise, we're not going to have many enticing value options at the keystone on this slate. Despite the fact that Sims has put up some OK numbers in the minors this season, he's still having trouble with lefties. They put up a .798 OPS last season and .808 this year, so there's a good chance the adjustment to big-league hitters could be a rocky one. Utley's .331 wOBA vs. RHP this season isn't all that exciting, but if he's hitting leadoff in this matchup, he'll have a chance to return big value -- at least on his FD price.

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Shortstop

Trevor Story FD 3900 DK 4500
Opponent - NYM (Matz) Park - @COL
FD - 12.88 DK - 10.12

Trevor Story is facing a lefty, so by now, y'all probably know the drill. When he's got the platoon advantage, he doesn't need the thin air of Colorado to put him in play, but it certainly doesn't hurt. Despite a monstrous K rate, he continues to produce big time against southpaws, putting up a .407 wOBA and .337 ISO this season, after .409/.310 marks as a rookie. Of course, he's an all-or-nothing type of play, but we're willing to live with that when he's not priced out of consideration.

Jean Segura FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.65 DK - 8.28

The low-cost options at shortstop aren't looking super appealing tonight, but you could do a lot worse than Segura at these prices. As mentioned, Arlington might be the closest thing to Coors Field for hitting environments when the weather is right, and though Tuesday's forecast doesn't call for anything extreme by Texas standards, it'll still be pretty muggy at game time. Also, let's not forget, Nick Martinez is awful. He's been somewhat less terrible against righties this season, but when a 4.67 xFIP counts for improvement, that kinda tells you all you need to know. Segura isn't exactly a masher, but we can live with a .335 wOBA and .375 OBP vs. southpaws when it comes at the top of the lineup with some stolen base upside.

Consider: Corey Seager, Marcus Semien

Third Base

Nolan Arenado FD 4800 DK 5400
Opponent - NYM (Matz) Park - @COL
FD - 16.58 DK - 12.66

I know what you're thinking. Arenado vs. a lefty in Coors? Mind = blown. Ok, so it's chalk. We just can't ignore those projections, even if he's as pricey as he is obvious. To say Arenado's numbers against southpaws are something out a video game would be doing a disservice to the realism of MLB The Show. So even though it's only 112 PAs, let's just take a look: .425/.455/.830 triple slash with a .527 wOBA and .406 ISO. And yeah, those numbers are even better when he's at home. Meanwhile, Steven Matz has struggled through nine starts this season (4.94 FIP) and righties are crushing him (.373 wOBA). And now you can probably start to see why playing Stroman in your cash games might not be such a terrible idea.

Josh Donaldson FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.34 DK - 10.85

Donaldson's numbers are down pretty much across the board in 2017 as he's battled through injuries. That's troublesome, for sure, but we're not overly concerned quite yet. His .344 wOBA vs. RHP is way off of what he's put up the last couple of couple of years, but it's still well above league average, and that's good enough to pique our interest against Pelfrey. Ks have been one of the biggest issues vs. righties for Donaldson this season, but that's mitigated substantially by Pelfrey's inability to miss bats (5.09 career Ks/9). The challenge here will be to keep the ball of the ground, because Pelfrey relies heavily on his 59% groundball rate vs. righties. I have to admit, that worries me a little, but I feel better knowing Pelfrey gets by on his sinker, and Donaldson owns a .508 lifetime slugging percentage vs. righty sinkers (.500 in 2017) and 48% line drive rate against sinkers this year.

Consider: Nic Castellanos if you're looking for some salary relief.

Outfield

Jose Bautista FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.57 DK - 10.97

We're steering into Pelfrey with another aging Toronto righty, but as with Donaldson and Martin, we see an opportunity for value in Joey Bats. He's got a good-enough .330 wOBA and .190 ISO vs. RHP this season, and maybe just as importantly has fared well both in 2017 and over the course of his career against righty sinker ballers (.273 career ISO). Also: we haven't mentioned this yet, but US Cellular is very nice park for power, and Vegas has the Blue Jays slated for the second highest total on the slate (6.06 runs), trailing only the Rockies.

Shin-Soo Choo FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - SEA (Ramirez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.33 DK - 9.64
Nomar Mazara FD 3300 DK 5000
Opponent - SEA (Ramirez) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.57 DK - 8.97

These two might be a bit too pricey on DK (especially Mazara), but the combo is firmly in play on FanDuel. They'll be facing Erasmo Ramirez, who has given up a .360 wOBA, 5.77 FIP and 1.9 HRs/9 vs. lefties since the beginning of last season. All that while pitching primarily in the safe haven of Tropicana Field. Away from Tampa, those numbers spike to .363, 6.94 and 2.6. Yeah, we're only talking about 121 batters faced, but still. That's brutal. Choo and Mazara might not come with massive upside, but they're getting the job done. They enter with a .341 and .344 wOBA, respectively, against RHP this season, and Mazara also owns a .208 ISO in the split. And, unsurprisingly, they've been especially dangerous vs. righties at home. Choo: .388 wOBA. Mazara: .405/.248.

Starling Marte FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - CIN (Bailey) Park - @PIT
FD - 11.4 DK - 9.92

We wish the Pirates (and their home park) offered us more opportunities to pick on Homer Bailey, but we'll take what we can get. Aside from two improbably good starts in Colorado and Arizona (go figure), the Reds starter has gotten slapped around quite a bit since returning from injury a little over a month ago. He's given up at least six runs in four of his seven starts, resulting in an 8.37 ERA and 5.82 FIP during that time. Whether or not he's really this bad or if he's just extremely rusty after missing the better part of the last two and a half seasons is mostly speculation, but we're willing to take a shot at him considering he's giving up a .497 wOBA to the 82 righties he's faced this season. That makes Marte a prime candidate. He's put up a .311/.364/.457 triple slash vs. RHP since the beginning of 2016, and while he doesn't come with a ton of pop, he's always liable to provide a boost in the form of a stolen bag or two.

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