Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/31/17

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Pitcher

Luis Severino FD 10100 DK 11900
Opponent - DET (Fulmer) Park - @NYY
FD - 34.92 DK - 22.99

We have another slate without much pitching. For the 2nd day in a row, we have to take what we can get. Fortunately, we do have an option or two who can deliver a bit of safety. The first of which is Luis Severino. Severino has proven himself this year and looks to be one of the upcoming elite arms in baseball. He's held both lefties and righties to a sub .284 wOBA and he's struck out over 10 batters per 9 innings. Severino is undoubtedly elite and while his age brings some inherent risk, it's been minimized greatly. He faces off with the Tigers in Yankee Stadium tonight. The Tigers have ranked 20th in the league against righties with a .306 wOBA and that number will only fall with J.D. Martinez out of town. They obviously have some intimidating sticks in the meat of the order, but fall off quickly and K 22% of the time. Severino is expensive, but he's necessary on this slate and makes for the top option in both cash and GPP's.

Charlie Morton FD 8800 DK 10600
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @HOU
FD - 32.44 DK - 21.47

Charlie Morton has been really good this season and has also gotten a bit unlucky. Against righties, whom have hurt him, he's given up a .342 BABIP. That number will inevitably come down and so will his wOBA. Morton is striking out over 10 batters per 9 and doing a fantastic job of limiting the big innings. He faces off with Rays tonight, which is mostly why he's in play. As we know, the Rays strikeout a ton. Against righties, they have posted a 24.8% K rate. Minute Maid Park is a + park for pull righties and a neutral one for everyone else. The Rays have one righty pull hitter in Steven Souza, but he's not a guy you can be scared of. Morton isn't a huge name, but he's pitched well and has one of the top match-ups. The Rays are just 1 of 2 teams with an implied total under 4, so Vegas likes Morton as well. While I will take Severino every time, Morton is a great SP2 and pivot.

Catcher

Russell Martin FD 2700 DK 3600
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.84 DK - 8.98

If Russell Martin isn't on your radar at catcher, you may be doing things wrong. This is a pretty cut and dry option and in result, I'm expecting very high ownership. The Blue Jays are one of the slates top offenses and finding Russell Martin at such a limited position and strong price is key. We will touch on James Shields a ton as we move along, so just know he is atrocious against everyone. As for Martin, while he's nowhere near the hitter he used to be, he's still super solid. So far this season, he has posted a .345 wOBA against righties and has been better against them over lefties. The Blue Jays will move into Chicago and Guaranteed Rate Field, which has been a + park for power. We'll get to plenty more Blue Jays, but Russell Martin makes for an excellent play at catcher in all formats.

Brian McCann FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - TB (Cobb) Park - @HOU
FD - 10.44 DK - 7.92

The Astros aren't a team we will touch on very much, but they are definitely in play. They face off with Alex Cobb, who is very average. He's given up a .300 wOBA to both sides of the plate, but has also run into some HR and BABIP issues. His numbers will drop at least a little bit as the year closes out and you can expect some rough starts. Vegas definitely expects that to be tonight, with the Astros projected to score over 5 runs. Brian McCann, in particular, is a great hitting catcher against righties and always brings the HR upside. You know what you're getting with him. The price is fine and the 'Stros should go under-owned as a team.

First Base

Yonder Alonso FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.13 DK - 7.84

Along with the Blue Jays, the Athletics are the top offense on this slate. They both hold similar implied run totals and face pitchers that are absolute gas cans. In this case, good ol' Matt Cain. He's allowed a .353 wOBA to both sides of the plate and has struggled in nearly every single start. Alonso on the other hand, has very strict splits. He obliterates righties and that's it. In 250 at-bats, he's posted a .398 wOBA and has hit 18 homers. The Athletics are at home and while the park is huge, Cain has been putrid in an even bigger park in San Fran. Alonso and crew can hit plenty in the O.Co and I have confidence in them getting to Matt Cain early. Alonso works in both cash games and tournaments, as he certainly doesn't rely on power. He can work the basepaths and drive in runs effectively. His price is fair and I don't see any reason to fade. 

Kendrys Morales FD 2800 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.61 DK - 9.5
Justin Smoak FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.03 DK - 9.08

You can't go wrong here. If you don't feel like playing Yonder Alonso against a worn out Matt Cain, you can pivot to either of these Blue Jay first basemen. Smoak is obviously having s more electric season and he is typically a lot more popular. Morales, however, has actually hit righties better with a .384 wOBA over the last 2 seasons. The truth is either of these guys work. They are both switch-hitters and can both hit from either side of the plate. Take your choice. The match-up certainly won't get in the way. James Shields used to be a great pitcher, but those days are long gone. He's now 1 of the 10 worst in baseball and should get picked on every time he takes the mound. He's allowed a .440 wOBA so far to lefties and has shown absolutely no signs of improving. Smoak And Morales are about even and make for great plays in all formats. If I had to choose, I would take Morales due to the price and projected ownership.

Second Base

Jose Ramirez FD 3600 DK 5100
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.83

Doug Fister is what's known as a "groundball pitcher". In Boston, they can be very valuable. With that being said, if they are off their game, groundballs are the last thing they'll be giving up. Doug Fister is living proof. So far in 2017, he's allowed .400 combined wOBA. In 2016, with a much larger sample size, he allowed a .400 wOBA and 19 homers against lefties in 91 innings. Fister is bad. You want lefties against him and in this ballpark, you want as many as you can get. Jose Ramirez is and elite batter against righties (.412 wOBA) and with him moving to 2B, he's as valuable as ever. The Indians will fly under the radar on this slate and they are a stack I absolute love in tournaments. They can score 10 runs without blinking.

Jed Lowrie FD 2600 DK 3600
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.49 DK - 8.04

There comes a point where you can't just ignore the super cheap guy in the middle of the order against a putrid pitcher. While I like to ignore Jed Lowrie as much as anyone else, this is a match-up where you may want to jump on board. He does have a lot of upside and while he doesn't hit it often, it's always there. He's turned from a veteran 2B to a value guy in the eyes of the public, though he's still just as good of a hitter as ever. He has a .344 wOBA against righties this year and has shown some power with 9 homers. We'll touch on Matt Cain more and more as we go, but a .360 wOBA should make things rather clear. Lowrie is a super great option at a position without much appeal. You can get a guy in the heart of an order that is projected to score 6 runs for just 2.6-3.6k. He's in play in all formats and a must in A's stacks.

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Shortstop

Francisco Lindor FD 3900 DK 4800
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.27 DK - 9.9

We touched on Jose Ramirez just a bit ago and the case for Lindor isn't all too different. Doug Fister is a gas can against lefties. He's allowed a .433 wOBA against them over the last 2 years and has shown absolutely no signs of improving. He has exactly 0 + pitches so far this year and has found no groove at all. Lindor may not be the best hitter in the league, but he gets it down and has flashes of power. In '16, he sported a .351 wOBA and ended with 10 homers against righties. Fenway Park is obviously a great Park for hitting and Lindor does a great job of hitting to all fields, which of course helps here. All in all, this Indians team will go mostly ignored and I rightfully so. Fister is worse than his reputation deems and should be picked on. I love both Ramirez and Lindor, along with Santana and Brantley if you're stacking.

Marcus Semien FD 3100 DK 4300
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.77 DK - 8.58

Maybe there's some bias here, but I sure love rostering Marcus Semien. This is one of the best match-ups he can have an I'll have a ton of exposure here. Semien is a fly ball hitter and it's all he tries to do. Against Matt Cain, he won't have any issues getting the ball in the air. He also won't have trouble hitting it hard, seeing opposing righties make hard contact around 30% of the time. Cain has allowed a .356 wOBA and 9 homers in 57 innings, which is just about the definition of "bad". Semien has been better against lefties, but that's fine. He has immense power against righties and still posted a .310 wOBA. Semien may not be the safest option on the board, or even the 10th safest. He does, however, have more upside than just about the field at SS. He hit 27 homers last year and can park 2 in the seats on any night. 

Third Base

Josh Donaldson FD 3800 DK 4200
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.98 DK - 10.58

Here we go with another Toronto Blue Jay. When James Shields is on the mound, you have to take advantage. The Jays travel into Guaranteed Rate tonight and are projected to score close to 6 runs. I've hinted at James Shields a bit, but let's jump in. In 2016, he posted a .384 wOBA against righties. He gave up 24 homers in just 90 innings. WOW. He's also striking out just 6-7 per 9 innings and walking nearly 5. He's simply a bad pitcher at this point and has trouble making it through 5 innings. We know what we have in Donaldson. While better against lefties, Donaldson has hit righties to a .372 wOBA since 2015. The ballpark is great and Vegas agrees on these guys being the top offense of the night. If you can afford Donaldson at 3B, go for it.

Manny Machado FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.37 DK - 9.54

Danny Duffy isn't a guy you want to go out and look to target hitters against. He has good stuff and when he's on, he's tough for anyone to hit. However, we have rarely seen that as of late. While his dominance against lefties has gone nowhere, he's allowed a .330 wOBA against righties, with most of his innings coming in the spacious Kauffman Stadium. He now moves into Camden Yards, which is an extreme (top 5) hitter ballpark. You can count on the Orioles to put some runs up here and Machado should certainly be involved. While he's been extremely unlucky this season, Machado has held a .372 wOBA against lefties since entering the league. He's elite at home and mashes left-handed pitching. While he'll definitely cost you a bit, he will be way lower owned than Donaldson and has similar upside.

Outfield

Jose Bautista FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - CHW (Shields) Park - @CHW
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.69

The 4th and final Toronto Blue Jay. Bautista should be in the leadoff hole once again and get 5 at-bats, at a minimum. He's been better against righties this season with a .330 wOBA and has definitely picked things up a bit more as of late. He's still hitting the ball hard and we do get the sense of this Blue Jays lineup turning into the juggernaut they were in past years. As for tonight, they're facing a guy who can't get anyone out. A .384 wOBA last year against righties is plenty proof of that. The ballpark is great, the implied total is high, and the price is fine. I can't find anything to dislike about Bautista here and he'll be my top play in both formats because of it. All in all, this Blue Jays offense is going to be very popular and you should probably get some exposure. 

Matt Joyce FD 2900 DK 3300
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK
FD - 11.44 DK - 8.68
Khris Davis FD 4000 DK 4600
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @OAK
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.25

We'll cap off our Athletics exposure in the OF with Matt Joyce and Khris Davis. Two very different hitters with very different approaches, are both in play. Why? Matt Cain. He's bad against everyone. With a combined .359 wOBA and .320 BABIP, things aren't on the way up for Cain. He is only getting older and his pitches are only getting slower. He's striking out a putrid 5 batters per 9 innings and walking nearly 4. The type of numbers that get you sent to AAA quickly. Both Matt Joyce and Khrush Davis can smash righties and each has held .360+ wOBA's since the start of 2016. The A's are one of the top offenses on the entire slate and I do think they go a bit more ignored than they should. They have a lot of unknowns on the team and I could see people looking towards the better-known names in Boston and Chicago.

Nelson Cruz FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Hamels) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.18 DK - 9.95

Cole Hamels has a HOF reputation around him and you will rarely see people target offenses against him for that reason. The fact of the matter is that Hamels is not the same guy he used to be. He's starting to struggle against righties and giving up homers in Globe Life Park. It's hard not to in the summer. Either way, he's takes with Nelson Cruz tonight. As we all know, Nelson Cruz is one of the best bats in baseball against lefties. He's held a .400+ wOBA against them in 90% of his years and his season has been no different. He will be extremely low owned against Cole Hamels and is one of the top HR candidates on the slate. He will be used more in tournaments because of the risk, but I couldn't blame you in cash games if the salary fits. Cruz will rarely disappoint against a lefty. Let alone a lefty in Globe Life Park.

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