Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/30/17
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Pitcher
Drew Pomeranz FD 8400 DK 8700
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @BOS
FD - 30.42 DK - 20.13
Pitching is plain bad on this main slate. The 2 most expensive options are Justin Verlander vs HOU and Jacob Faria against the Yanks. No thank you. Instead, we'll take a look at Drew Pomeranz. He's around the same price and has a bit more appeal in the match-up. I'm not saying he's safe. There is no such thing on this slate. Pomeranz can always have his command off and it can turn into a bad start. Fortunately, we haven't seen that all too often this season. He has given up some runs, but the blowup games have been few and far between. He's also having one of the unluckiest years I've ever seen against lefties. They've posted a ridiculous .473 BABIP and in turn has led to a .395 wOBA. You can blame Pomeranz for that and you can guarantee that will turn around. He's been great against righties, which has always been the problem. The Royals are an extremely underwhelming team and while they get some more upside in the ballpark, they still can't hit lefties. They rank 21st in the league with a .305 wOBA. Like I said, there is no such thing as safe, you do, however, get a solid arm at a good price in a solid match-up in Drew Pomeranz.
Gerrit Cole FD 9000 DK 10900
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 36.71 DK - 24.16
The late start slate provides a ton more at pitcher. Bumgarner, Paxton, and Cole make for great plays in all formats at the top. We're going to look at Cole, who has the best match-up and price. Cole has been his usual self this year, dominating righties and struggling against lefties (.355 wOBA). He strikes out 8 per 9 innings and will very rarely get blown up. He should also see an uptick in K's, as the Padres lead the league in striking out against righties at nearly 26%. That's insane. Wil Myers is the only guy I'm scared of in the order and Cole has obliterated righties, so I'm not too worried. While you can get a bit more safety out of Bumgarner at the top, I'm not sure the salary will be worth it. Cole makes for a solid play in all formats and could end up under-owned with the other options available.
Catcher
Russell Martin FD 2600 DK 3700
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.31 DK - 8.58
Russell Martin is a guy you should roster a lot. When he's at this friendly price, you almost can't ignore him at catcher. While he's not a great hitter and not even the guy he was 2 years ago, he's fine. He also routinely gets a great spot in the order and in turn sees RBI opportunities. This match-up with Jesse Chavez is one we're looking to take advantage of. Chavez has sported an absurd .380 wOBA against righties while allowing 16 homers in under 60 innings. Yes, real stats. He moves into the Rogers Centre today and will likely have a tough time. We'll touch on another Blue Jay later, but keep them in mind at every position if you're stacking. Martin has reverse splits (hits righties better) and is at a price where you don't need a ton. The spot is perfect and with the Blue Jays being one of the top offenses, you may as well grab a catcher from them.
Jonathan Lucroy FD 2500 DK 3200
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.08 DK - 7.81
This later slate has a bit more action as a whole, so I can see s lot of people playing the all-day slate. If you are, you certainly can't ignore these Rangers. Especially since their team implied run total just went over 6 runs. They are expected to go off tonight and I have to disagree. In fact, this match-up with Wade Miley is one of the best possible for a righty. In 85 innings against them, he's posted a .384 wOBA and like Chavez, has given up an astounding 16 home runs. He now moves into Globe Life Park, which is one of the friendlier in the majors for power. Lucroy started the second half slow, but has picked it up and should ride the wave. He's one of the best hitting catchers in the majors and he can hit against both lefties and righties, giving you some versatility. We'll get to the Rangers later, but keep Lucroy in mind at a low-end catcher spot.
First Base
Carlos Santana FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 13.47 DK - 10.17
Even when Carlos Rodon is at his best, he's horrible against righties. When you consider his current shape, you have to love these Indians' bats. Rodon has been off an on the DL all year and when off, he's been less than stellar. Against righties in particular, Rodon has posted a putrid .361 combined wOBA over the last 2 seasons. He's pitching in the hitter-friendly Guaranteed Rate Field and should have a lot of trouble with such a lethal offense. Carlos Santana is a switch-hitter, which helps a ton when the bullpen is introduced. He's held a .343 wOBA against lefties since 2014 and has power from both sides. Encarnacion can be used as a GPP option as well if in the order. As for Santana, he's safe and priced well, which makes him key for a cash game or tournament.
Yonder Alonso FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.19 DK - 7.89
Yep, another day of Bartolo Colon. What do the Twins think could possibly happen here? Do they expect players to take the field with confidence when they can be sure that they will be facing a heavy deficit early? Colon is a worthless arm at this point and you can pencil in 3+ runs in 5- innings. He's horrible against both sides of the plate and isn't even very good at holding runners anymore. He was a great hoorah piece for being a weirdo in New York, but he's a horrible pitcher. You can and should stack against him at any possible point. Today, Yonder Alonso may be your top option on the A's. Against righties, he's posted a very impressive .390 wOBA that's backed up by a 36% hard contact rate. First base always has options, but Alonso is surely at the top of the list and a commodity in both cash and tournaments. Don't be afraid of the name.
Second Base
Dustin Pedroia FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.32 DK - 8.12
Pedroia is never a sexy option. When you watch him at the plate, it can be disheartening. Then he'll take a high fastball and bat it over the green monster. No matter what's going on with the Red Sox, Pedroia always remains a constant. From his phenomenal range in the field to his ability to hit both lefties and righties, you can't deny the versatility of Pedroia. He has the power and he can facilitate runs with the best of them. This matchup with Jason Hammel is a very underwhelming one. Hammel, who was decent in the past, has taken a turn for the worst. He's held a .345 wOBA against righties and has struggled to keep them off the bases. He also has a big HR issue and that can be magnified in Fenway Park. Pedroia is a stallion at 2B for the Sox and at a weak position on the main slate, I love him in all formats.
Jonathan Schoop FD 3700 DK 5000
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.06 DK - 7.76
Jonathan Schoop is really making a name for himself in Baltimore. After being relatively unknown in the middle of last year, he's had a quiet, yet amazing run. So far in 2017, Schoop hasn't posted 23 homers with a .377 wOBA. He's still not talked about as one of the top 2B around. You can look at Schoop as a Rougned Odor who can hit everyone. He gets a phenomenal match-up tonight with Martin Perez, who can't get righties out. In 84 innings this season, he's allowed 11 homers and .364 wOBA. No Bueno. Globe Life Park is an extreme hitters park in the summer and Vegas is expecting fireworks in this one with an 11 over/under. The Orioles are a great team to consider stacking and Schoop may be my favorite of the bunch at a limited position.
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Shortstop
Xander Bogaerts FD 2800 DK 3500
Opponent - KC (Hammel) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.38 DK - 8.29
We touched on Pedroia at second and will move right to Bogaerts at short. The Red Sox have one of the best match-ups on this early slate with Jason Hammel on the mound. Hammel, who we just touched on, is a reverse-splits righty who has allowed a .345 wOBA against righties. Looking towards Bogaerts, he's actually been better against righties over the last 2 seasons with a .334 combined wOBA. The power has been absent this season and with it sure to return, the numbers will rise. He is one of the more consistent bats in a lineup full of very volatile options. He's also a far better hitter in Fenway Park, where he's able to use the green monster to his advantage. The Sox have an implied total near 6 and are coming on to be one of the top offenses of the day in the eyes of Vegas. If you can afford Bogaerts and want a super safe and reliable option, do it.
Marcus Semien FD 3200 DK 4200
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @OAK
FD - 10.84 DK - 8.63
I am very happy to have Marcus Semien back in my life. Even though he will go 0-4 quite often and will strikeout as much as anyone, the guy has upside. At a position without a ton of it, Semien gives you a 35 HR bat at a very affordable tag. Today, he gets the added bonus of facing Bartolo Colon. He will be tossing the 45 MPH fastballs in there and blowing batters away with even slower, stagnant sliders. Colon has been putrid against righties on the season and has never been a guy with heavy splits. Semien is a guy who is better against lefties, but not by much. He still hit 16 homers against righties last year and in sported a .330 wOBA. The Athletics are a team you want to be on today and Semien is in a great spot in the order. His price is nice and the upside is huge.
Third Base
Freddie Freeman FD 3800 DK 4600
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.44
This is definitely a cop out. With Freeman moving over to 3B, he's going to be the top option on most slates. This one is no different. Moving into the hitter-friendly Citizens Bank Park, the Braves will face off with Vince Velasquez. Velasquez has good stuff and is a quality starter when everything is working well. Unfortunately for Velasquez, that's nowhere near the case as of now. In nearly 30 innings, he's given up 5 homers and allowed a .372 wOBA to lefties. He's simply off right now and getting drilled almost every start. We all know how great Freddie Freeman is and he's sported a .400 wOBA against righties in most seasons. As for 2017, it's arguably his best season with a .478 wOBA against righties. He's the easy top choice at the position and if you can afford him, I recommend it. I love getting an elite bat like this at a position without many of them.
Adrian Beltre FD 4000 DK 4900
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.41 DK - 11.05
Beltre is 2 hits away from 3000. Aside from this match-up being perfect, you have to love that. While numbers and analytics are 99% of the game, we can't pretend baseball is anything other than a game of emotion. How a player is feeling and how focused they are on hitting is undoubtedly tied to success. Beltre is quite obviously focused right now and I'm sure he would like to do it at home. He has the honor of facing off with Wade Miley, which is a top 5 matchup in the League for Beltre. Miley has posted the egregious .384 wOBA and has a huge HR issue. Beltre on the other hand, has been murdering lefties for what seems like 50 years. This year is far from anything different. In 150 at-bats, he's posted a .355 wOBA and has hit the ball hard nearly 40% of the time. He hits better at home and Globe Life Park is a very generous park to hit in. Beltre is the top 3B on the later slate and it's not too close at all.
Outfield
Jose Bautista FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @TOR
FD - 13.57 DK - 10.21
As someone who rarely rosters Jose Bautista, this is a spot in very excited for. The Blue Jays have an incredible match-up here and the upside is limitless. We touched on them a bit earlier with Russell Martin, but ignored the likes of Donaldson and Smoak/Morales, who are firmly in play. We now get to Jose Bautista, who is the top choice of all. Jesse Chavez is a right-handed youngster with some severe reverse splits. Against righties, he's posted a .380 wOBA and has allowed 16 home runs in under 60 innings. Bautista on the other hand, while still better against lefties, has held a .368 wOBA against righties over the last 3 seasons. He should be in that leadoff spot once again and his appeal is huge in both cash and tournaments.
Brandon Guyer FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Rodon) Park - @CHW
FD - 9.9 DK - 7.75
If you're looking for some saving in the OF, Guyer is a fantastic way to go. He is a guy who will mostly play against lefties. He's nearly worthless against righties and is in the majors to hit lefties. Over the last 3 years, he's held a .371 wOBA. He has some power and a whole lot of consistency. He also gets to face off with a gas can in Carlos Rodon. Rodon, who is a big prospect, is all but there against righties. Posting a .350 wOBA and having huge HR issues is nothing something you want to bring into this ballpark. Guyer is a cheap OF bat with upside. He's also a great option if you're looking to stack the Indians and want to go contrarian a bit. Keep your options open.
Andrew McCutchen FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 11.09 DK - 8.69
Starling Marte FD 3400 DK 4200
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 4.97 DK - 4.32
This OF duo on the Pirates is one I love to target against lefties. They both smack southpaws and have a ton of upside. They also typically remain low-owned (especially in Petco Park). Both Marte and McCutchen have posted +.380 wOBA's over the last 2 years against lefties. They are absolutely dominant and make for a lethal duo. The Pirates face off with Clayton Richard tonight, who is not good. He's allowed a .393 wOBA to righties and is trending strongly in the wrong direction. This entire Pirates team deserves some consideration and with the other offenses drawing so much attention, I suspect they will be rather ignored. As for Marte and McCutchen in particular, they are 2 of my favorite options in the OF for both cash games and tournaments. If you force me to choose 1, I go with the cheaper option.
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image sources
- andrewmccutchen: AP Images
View Comments
Why put players on here that aren't starting? Why not at least change them when they are marked NS
How about that call on K. Gausman last night? 1 out away from a complete game shutout! Beltre is 1 hit away from 3000. Globe Life Park is going to be nuts today!