Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/24/17

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Pitcher

Madison Bumgarner FD 10200 DK 9700
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @SF
FD - 39.56 DK - 26.02

We haven't seen vintage Bumgarner in his two starts since coming off the DL. Not that he's been terrible, but four homers in 13+ IP is a little disconcerting. Still, he's the only bonafide ace on the 14-game slate and he'll be at home in one of the most forgiving parks in baseball, so he still looks like the safest play in cash games. The Pirates have been better lately, but this is still a subpar offense vs. LHP. They don't strikeout much, but they rank 17th with a 93 wRC+ and .311 wOBA vs. southpaws this season, so even if the upside is limited, we're not backing down from this lineup. Plus, a couple of shaky starts aside, this is still one of the best pitchers in the game over the last 4-5 seasons we're talking about. MadBum hasn't finished a season with an ERA over 3 or a FIP over 3.25 since 2012, so we're happy to take the discount we're getting on him here.

Jacob Faria FD 8400 DK 8500
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @TB
FD - 31.05 DK - 20.63

In the tier below Bum, we've got nearly unlimited choices. You could make a case for about 3/4 of the slate falling into the good-not-great category. Over on DraftKings, the lack of a super-premium-priced ace means you can play just about anybody you want, and Faria is certainly in play as an SP2 to pair with Bumgarner. And if you're fading Bum on FanDuel, Faria might be the next-best play. Right now he's third in our projections on both sites, but don't be surprised if that changes based on line movement in the Texas game -- playing any pitcher in the Arlington, Texas heat is gonna come with some risks. Faria isn't risk-free either, but we'll take our chances with a guy who's turned in quality starts in seven of his first eight big-league starts. There's enough latent talent in the Baltimore lineup to give us pause, but they've been below average this season vs. RHP (97 wRC+), and Tropicana Field should help keep them in check tonight. If you're looking for upside, there are probably better places to find it, and Faria may not be quite as good as his 2.52 ERA suggests. But there's nothing wrong with his 3.52 FIP, and as one of the bigger favorites on the board (opening at -150), we like his chances to return solid value.

Catcher

Gary Sanchez FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - CIN (Castillo) Park - @NYY
FD - 14.02 DK - 10.77

For a catcher, Sanchez isn't cheap, but on this slate he should be doable if you've got your eye on upside. He'll be facing Cincinnati rookie Luis Castillo, which make this a bit of a boom/bust proposition. The flame-throwing righty is missing an awful lot of bats in his first seven starts (29.5 K%, 13.3 SwStr%), but he's also getting giving up some damage vs. righties (1.8 HRs/9, .349 wOBA). But let's also remember, these are tiny sample sizes, so let's not put too much stock into any of it, good or bad. Castillo's numbers in the bigs don't really mirror what he showed in the minors, so we're gonna need some more data on him before we feel like we truly know who he is. As for Sanchez, we've seen enough. He's got 34 HRs, a .272 ISO and a .381 wOBA in his first 121 big-league games, and most of that goodness is coming against righties. He's in play any time we can afford to pay up a little at catcher, and especially when he's at home.

Brian McCann FD 2600 DK 3800
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.26

This one goes for whoever gets the call behind the plate for the Astros tonight; we're just looking for the opportunity to pick on Nick Pivetta. The Phillies' rookie has actually posted reverse splits this season (pretty significant ones at that), so we might actually like Gattis more. The downside there is the DK algorithm is all over Gattis, too, so he's not coming cheap. That's fine. We're happy to take a shot on McCann and save some salary if he's in there. Power plays well in the Philly park, and McCann has a .200 career ISO vs. RHP.

First Base

Miguel Cabrera FD 3700 DK 3400
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @DET
FD - 13.08 DK - 9.9

Over on FanDuel, we'd just as soon take E5 and save a couple hundred bucks, but as long as the DK price on Miggy stays this low, we're going to have to give him consideration for top billing, even at a marquee position. Cabrera's numbers are down across the board, and some of that is surely due to the fact that he's 34 years old and his skills are probably slipping. His K% is over 20 for the first time since 2004, but as far as objective signs of decline in the numbers, that's about the extent of it. More than anything, 2017 has just been an extended run of bad luck. Want proof? His hard contact rate is an absurd 47%, which represents a career high, while his BABIP is .296, which represent a career low. It's really uncanny. So while he's hitting a mere .256 this season, his expected batting average based on Statcast data is a much more Miggy-like .302. Even with that kind of misfortune, he's still doing solid work against lefties (.377 wOBA), so while Danny Duffy is a solid arm, we can't pass up Cabrera when we're getting this price on DK.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3500 DK 5100
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @CLE
FD - 13.08 DK - 9.77

Meanwhile, Encarnacion is pretty much FanDuel-only in cash games. I mean, he's a fine play for tourneys on either site, because that DK price tag should keep his ownership in check and Jesse Chavez is getting rocked by righties this season (.370 wOBA). But if you're paying up for E5 on DraftKings, you're going to have to cut corners elsewhere, and we'd rather just play Miggy and invest those savings in pitching or another big bat. That said, if you can fit him in comfortably, there's a lot to like about Encarnacion. He's got a .241 ISO and .352 wOBA against RHP this season, so the double reverse splits factor makes him intriguing in any format and on either site.

Second Base

Rougned Odor FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - MIA (Straily) Park - @TEX
FD - 10.63 DK - 8.52

Ugh. Gotta be honest. Not loving this one. Odor has been one of the most infuriating players to roster in DFS this seaosn thanks to an MLB-worst 20.4% pop-up rate. Pair that with a 24 K% and you've got way too close to half his at-bats resulting in automatic outs. Gross. So that's the downside, and yeah, it's ample. So if we're rostering him it's pure upside hunting, and to be fair, there's plenty of that, too. He's still popped 19 HRs and has swiped 9 bags, so when he delivers, he's got the ability to come though in a massive way. He's got a .236 ISO vs. RHP this season, and while Dan Straily has been solid this year, he's been much more hittable away from his spacious home park (4.54 FIP on the road vs. 3.69 at home).

Jed Lowrie FD 2900 DK 3900
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.24 DK - 7.85

If you're willing to give up some of Odor's ceiling, Lowrie comes with a much more palatable floor for virtually the same price. In case you've missed it, the veteran is doing really nice work against RHP this season with a .348 wOBA and .191 ISO. He'll be facing Cesar Valdez tonight, who is probably an utter mystery unless you spend your free time following the Mexican league. Prior to this season, the 32-year-old last appeared in the bigs in 2010, and has logged a grand total of 39 inglorious innings (6.86 ERA, 5.50 FIP). We won't pretend to have this guy fully figured out, but suffice it to say, he doesn't look that awesome. Throw in a nice park bump for Lowrie, and we're happy to roll him out in any lineup where we're not paying up for upper-echelon 2Bs.

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Shortstop

Zack Cozart FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.12 DK - 7.94

The shortstop position has taken a massive hit with Correa and Trea Turner sidelined, but any time we get Cozart vs. a lefty, we've got at least one elite producer at the position. Since the start of 2016, Cozart is putting up a .378 wOBA and .257 ISO vs. southpaws, and the sample size (192 PAs) is big enough by now to believe that it's not a fluke or a product of a few good games in a hitter-friendly home park. But speaking of good hitting environments, he's got one tonight. Yankee Stadium is know for inflating lefty power numbers, but it ranks among the top 10 for right-handed home run factors, as well. Jordan Montgomery has had a solid rookie season, but he's not overpowering, and a 4.59 xFIP vs. righties tells us we don't have to shy away from him with the right bats.

Marcus Semien FD 2800 DK 4200
Opponent - TOR (Valdez) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.37
This one's more of a FanDuel play, where the price is starting to creep up, but still represents a discount for a guy with legitimate thump hitting in the top of the order. As mentioned earlier, the book on Valdez is a thin one, and injuries have kept Semien on the sidelines for most of 2017, as well. And while we like him better against lefties, the value play has to be considered for the upside you're getting here (27 HRs in 2016, 7 SBs in 104 PAs this year).

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3800 DK 5300
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.93 DK - 9.17

If Mike Foltynewicz ever figures out a way to neutralize left-handed bats, he's got a bright future ahead of him. Unfortunately for him (and fortunately for Jake Lamb) that day has not yet come. Spoiling an otherwise fine season, Folty's giving up a .373 wOBA vs. lefties, and that's bad news against Lamb, who does pretty much all of his damage against righties. Building on the trend we saw develop last year, Lamb is mashing RHP in 2017 with a .419 wOBA and .309 ISO. You just won't find many BvP matchups with more extreme splits. Go ahead and lock him in on FanDuel, and if you've got room to pay for a big bat on DraftKings, he's one of the first places we're looking.

Nick Castellanos FD 2900 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @DET
FD - 11.48 DK - 8.9

If Lamb's price is too steep, no worries. We've got options. Our projections have Castellanos just a hair off Lamb's pace, and he's coming in as one of the best value plays at the position on either site. A quick word here about Danny Duffy: dude's a pretty good pitcher, no doubt about it. But for the fourth straight year he's showing massive splits. Lefties can't touch him, but vs. righties, he's nobody we have to be afraid of. He's allowing a .335 wOBA against right-handed bats in 2017, which is virtually identical to his career average. That's not an obscene number or anything, but considering the league average wOBA hovers somewhere in the .320 range, it's high enough that we're willing to selectively pick on him. Meanwhile, Castellanos is crushing southpaws this season. It's only 94 PAs, so with the usual caveats understood, a .388 wOBA/.372 ISO (!) can't be dismissed. Plus, he's been getting a prime spot in the No. 2 hole against lefties lately, so like I said. We've got options at 3B tonight.

Consider: Evan Longoria, if you want to split the projection/price difference on the two guys above.

Outfield

George Springer FD 4000 DK 5700
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.92 DK - 10.03
Josh Reddick FD 2900 DK 4800
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 12.11 DK - 9.5

When in doubt, play a bunch of Astros. Just kidding. Kind of. Ok. Back to Nick Pivetta. We've seen the rookie be good this season, but that little run before the All-Star break is looking more and more like the outlier the further we get into the season. He's given up 12 runs in 10.1 IP since the break and has allowed seven home runs in his last three starts, bringing his total to 16 in 69.1 IP on the season (2.08 HRs/9). Those aren't James Shields' 2016 numbers, but they ain't good. And they look even worse considering tonight's opponent, the Astros, supreme destroyer of right-handed pitching. Springer has unsurprisingly been better against southpaws this season, but whatever. We're splitting hairs among degrees of excellence, because he's got a .389 wOBA and .265 ISO vs. RHP. Woe be to Pivetta, who's yielding a .429 wOBA vs. righties. Pivetta has actually been pretty good against lefties, but we're not totally buying into his splits quite yet -- they take a really long time to stabilize, and reverse splits are pretty rare in the long term. In other words, we're not letting his success against lefties push us off of Reddick (at least not on FanDuel). He's got a .362 wOBA/.219 ISO vs. RHP this season and is holding down cherished real estate in the No. 3 hole of the Astros order.

David Peralta FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Foltynewicz) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.64 DK - 10.18

The Diamondbacks don't give us a lot of great left-handed options, so we're going to jump on the few we get against Folty. Peralta has a .370 wOBA vs. RHP this season, and he's even better at home (.397) where Chase Field caters to his gap-power hitting.

Bradley Zimmer FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @CLE
FD - 9.32 DK - 7.91

We're going to keep rolling Zimmer out there against righties as long as he's at the top of the lineup and FanDuel refuses to raise his price accordingly. The Indians have opened with one of the highest totals on the slate, and Zimmer seems to have made a home for himself as the table-setter against righties. He strikes out more than we'd like, but as long as he's coming at a bargain, we're happy to take the extra at-bat expectancy that comes with the lead off spot. The power projected for him hasn't fully materialized yet, but he provides upside in the form of steals (10 in 198 PAs). That, plus the run-scoring opportunities we're expecting in this game (Jesse Chavez comes in with a 5.28 FIP), make him an excellent salary-saving play.

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