Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/24/17

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Pitcher

Jacob deGrom FD 11000 DK 13400
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 42.52 DK - 28.01

The pitcher spot may have left a sour spot in the mouths of many after last night, when Kershaw went down after just 2 innings. He's headed to the 10-day DL and should be back before we know it. That still does nothing to help to all of my dead lineups from yesterday, but what can we do. We now move on to a slate tonight where pitching is rather cut and dry. While there are 4 or 5 guys who deserve consideration, I think the top 2 is pretty clear in deGrom and Cole. Starting with deGrom, what's not to like? He's striking out over 10 batters per 9, walking just 2, and doing a good job of keeping speed off the bases that may result in a big inning. deGrom has been effective against both sides of the plate, with lefties posting a .306 wOBA and righties a respective .274. They now move into Petco Park to face one of the worst teams in the league, if not the worst. The Padres have an implied run total of 3.30 and are easily the lowest projected offense of the slate. deGrom is going to come out here and dominate in the huge park. He should be comfortable enough to let his fielders play and he shouldn't be biting at the corners all game long. He has the most upside and most safety, coming in as a clear number 1 in my book.

Gerrit Cole FD 8700 DK 9900
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 33.51 DK - 22.01

I love to target the San Francisco Giants. Once a team that would destroy right-handed pitching (just 2 years ago), they now absolutely stink. So far in 2017, the Giants are the league's absolute worst team against righties. Yes, the Giants are the worst team in baseball against right-handed pitching. The team we would avoid at all costs is now the top target in the game. They also play in AT&T Park, which doesn't help the hitters too much at all. It's actually one of the 2 best ballparks for pitching. Gerrit Cole and the Pirates will come from Colorado and likely take this game from the Giants, who will be tossing Matt Cain out there. As long as Cole is able to have a strong start, the win is in the bag. Cole has actually been really good against righties and not that good against lefties, which matches his entire career history. While he will continue to struggle a bit against lefties, he more than makes up for it against the righties. The Giants have a lot more righties than lefties and as long as they don't stuff 6 lefties in there, I love Cole. His price is fair around the industry and he'll certainly help you pay up for one of the offenses in a good spot.

Catcher

Yasmani Grandal FD 3100 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.89 DK - 8.21

C'mon, Twins, don't do this to Bartolo Colon. While Colon isn't the guy to get absolutely pummeled, he's not going to have much fun with this Dodgers lineup. Aside from him being bad and not good enough to pitch in the majors, he faces a top 3 MLB offense. An offense that absolutely obliterates right-handed pitching. We'll start with Yasmani Grandal, who is an elite option at the weakest position of the night. Grandal has posted a .347 wOBA against righties in 2017, and as a switch-hitter, he will always hold the platoon advantage. We'll dive in on Colon a bit later, but all you really need to know is that he's about 70 years old. All of his weapons are just about gone and he has mightily struggled against both sides of the plate. If you're a big Colon fan, we are witnessing one of his last few games. Grandal is fairly priced on FD and a bit expensive on DK, where they have these Dodgers priced up. He's easily my favorite option at the position, though he can be rivaled by Lucroy if he's in the top of the order.
Chris Herrmann FD 2200 DK 3300 
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @ARI
FD - 8.5 DK - 6.68

These first 2 offenses we look at are going to be the 2 we focus on. Like the Dodgers, the D-Backs are facing a putrid righty at home. The difference for the D-Backs is they get to play in Chase Field, where the ball flies. They also see a knuckleballer who has trouble making the ball move, which is a big problem. First things first, Dickey prefers playing with the wind. There is no wind in Chase Field and his knuckler shouldn't have nearly the same effect. In fact, the Blue Jays would skip Dickey when in a dome. He did learn to pitch in the ROgers Centre, but is not nearly the same situation as here. Even if Dickey was at home with 40 MPH winds, we're targeting him. He's allowed a .340 combined wOBA and hasn't shown any signs of improvement. As for Herrman, he'll play twice a week against righties and produce. He is solid against righties (.361 wOBA) and should get at least an RBI opportunity or two. The D-Backs are implied to score over 5 runs and you have to love them as a stack.

First Base

Cody Bellinger FD 3600 DK 4800
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @LAD
FD - 13.15 DK - 10.25

I'm not sure Cody Bellinger has been in a better spot all season long. Maybe when he was in Coors Field facing the likes of German Marquez and Antonio Senzatela. Still, you have to look at this match-up with Colon and fall in love with Bellinger. As a guy who struggles against the fast fastball, Bellinger will be able to sit on off-speed tonight. He's posted an absolutely ridiculous .409 wOBA against righties while posting very fair peripherals. He hasn't gotten lucky at all and this looks to be the true hitter he is. He does strikeout nearly 30% of the time, but it's going to come with the territory when you swing as hard as he does. As for Colon, he's given up a .379 wOBA to lefties in nearly 40 innings. All hope is lost for Colon and things are only going down from here. The Dodgers are expected to put up nearly 6 runs and you almost have to get exposure in both cash games and tournaments.

Mike Napoli FD 3000 DK 3900
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.13 DK - 9.15

If you can't afford the pricey Cody Bellinger, Mike Napoli is a fantastic pivot. The Texas Rangers are implied to score nearly 6 runs, so we definitely have to pay attention. They face off with Adam Conley, who is not a good pitcher. He's just not. He was a decent prospect for the Marlins and I actually watched him pitch live in the minors a ton when he peaked as a prospect in 2012. He has a decent 4 pitch arsenal, but that's not where the issue. The problem is he strikes out 6 and walks nearly 5. Wow. As a lefty, that will never work. Globe Life Park is a huge hitter park in the summer and I think the Rangers hit the over. As for Napoli, he's always been a monster against lefties. So far this year, nothing has changed. He's held a .377 wOBA and has 7 of his 21 homers against them. As long as he's not too low in the order, Napoli is a strong option in both cash games and tournaments. If you're paying up at pitcher, he is a guy I love pivoting to.

Second Base

Jose Altuve FD 4100 DK 5200
Opponent - PHI (Velasquez) Park - @PHI
FD - 11.86 DK - 9.94

Second base is very ugly tonight. If we had some solid options, Altuve wouldn't be here. He's in an average spot and he's only here because of his talent. Without anyone standing out, Altuve gives you a superstar and lets you stand out at the position. He has far more upside than the field and his safety is undeniable. The Astros face off with Vince Velasquez, who has not been good at all. Velasquez has sported a .338 wOBA against righties and has given up 8 homers in just 29 innings. Altuve on the other hand, is a monster. Against righties, he's sported a .416 wOBA that is backed up by the strongest peripherals around. Citizens Bank Park is a strong park for righties and Altuve does have a decent shot of hitting one out.  Altuve is expensive, but if you can afford him, do it. He'll be low-owned and this is a position that is very barren.

Chase Utley FD 2500 DK 4000
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.81 DK - 8.44

With second base being so ugly, there is a huge argument for paying down for Chase Utley. Utley has been hitting leadoff against righties lately and is a very cheap option on FanDuel. Utley, who is about 70 years old, is still hitting righties very well. He's held a .351 wOBA over the last 3 years against righties and doesn't look to be slowing down. He also gets to face off with Bartolo Colon, who is about 170 years old. Colon, who we'll be targeting plenty today, has been touched on. He is weak against both sides of the plate and while he's been worse against righties, he's been unlucky against lefties. Dodger Stadium is a tough park, but Utley did hit one out recently, so it's always in play. If you need to pay down somewhere and are looking for a solid cash game option, Utley is the best way to go.

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Shortstop

Corey Seager FD 4000 DK 5100
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @LAD
FD - 12.93 DK - 9.98

I hope you expected this one. With shortstop not being a great position tonight, Corey Seager is my easy top option. Very easy. To start, he's a monster. If you are a doubter of Corey Seager, I'm just here to let you know you're completely wrong. 100%. This is going to be an easy HOF'er if he can maintain a healthy career. Seager is already one of the leagues top SS' at just 23 years old, holding a .380 combined wOBA with 40 XBH. He's had more power against righties and has been a far better hitter in Dodger Stadium. With the Dodgers expected to reach nearly 6 runs, a combo like Seager and Bellinger is undeniable in a tournament. As for the opposing pitcher, Bartolo Colon is forgettable at this point. Allowing a .390 combined wOBA, the end i near for Bartolo. The Dodgers should beat him up early and we should see an average Twins bullpen by the 5th inning, at the latest. If you can afford Seager, do it. He's one of my favorite options on the board and nearly as high of a priority as my pitcher.

Elvis Andrus FD 3000 DK 4500
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @TEX
FD - 11.96 DK - 10.33

Elvis Andrus has been super solid this year. In the past, he was an inconsistent SS who would often find himself in the 7 or 8 hole. Now that he has made a big impact against both sides of the plate, the Rangers have moved him up to the 2 hole. He's been better against righties, but an unlucky spell against lefties has led to a .300 wOBA. He's been better against them in the past and I fully expect him to be fine. He also gets to face off with Adam Conley, who we've touched on a bit. While we only have 26 innings to look at this year, he has held a .350 wOBA against righties. Globe Life Park induces runs and you have to think Andrus is going to be heavily involved with plenty of RBI opportunities. If you can't afford Seager (not me), Andrus is a great pivot. He's also a must if you're stacking the Rangers.

Third Base

Jake Lamb FD 3900 DK 5200
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @ARI
FD - 11.84 DK - 9.1

This one should be some fun. If Lamb is able to see the knuckler tonight, things could get ugly. We already know that Jake Lamb is one of the 5 best DFS hitters when facing a righty at home in Chase Field. It's just nuts how great he is in this exact situation. He's held a .419 wOBA against righties and has already sent 19 home runs over the wall against them. He's also hit the ball hard 37% of the time and has held an LD rate of 23%. Who does he face today? Good ol' R.A. Dickey. Dickey is in probably his last season here and he's struggling against both sides of the plate. Against lefties, Dickey has actually been lucky. He's also striking out just 4 of them per 9 innings, which will never work in Chase Field. He's going to last just 4 or 5 innings here and I certainly expect at least some production out of the top of the order. While the price is high on both FD and DK, he could very well end up being worth it and a must in tourneys.

Adrian Beltre FD 3600 DK 4000
Opponent - MIA (Conley) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.83 DK - 10.63

With the Rangers being one of our top offenses and them facing a lefty, we have to love Adrian Beltre. Approaching 3,000 hits, Beltre has been mashing them for a very, very long time. So far in 2017, he's sported a .359 wOBA and with the power absent (4 warning track, 0 HR), it could easily be around .400. He's in the heart of the order and has a lot to do with how this team runs on a nightly basis. He's either a rally killer or the guy who sends a double down the line and ignites a fire. Against Adam Conley, I expect the ladder. Conley is a young lefty who has walked over 4 batters per 9 innings, while striking out just over 6. In Globe Life Park in July, good luck with that. Adrian Beltre is going to be pretty popular, but he has a great shot of having a huge game and is a bit cheaper than Jake Lamb. The Rangers are a strong stack and you must have Beltre if you're loading up on them.

Outfield

Giancarlo Stanton FD 4300 DK 5500
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.91 DK - 11.16
Marcell Ozuna FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 12.09 DK - 9.28

This could be the easiest paragraph to ever write. Stanton and Ozuna against a bad lefty in Globe Life Park? Uh, ya think? These 2 guys will be in my cash games and tournaments. If I go down with the ship, fine. Both Stanton and Ozuna are extremely dominant against lefties (.451, .436 wOBA) and also not even in their prime yet. Stanton is a bit more expensive and will be more popular, but that's fine. These are 2 guys who are menaces against lefties and a guy like Martin Perez is going to have a lot of trouble. Perez is a horrible lefty against righties, sporting a .364 wOBA and allowing 10 homers in under 70 innings. Globe Life Park is an extreme pitcher park in the summer and the Marlins hold an implied total over 5 runs. While I don't think either of these guys are musts because of the price, they will be a mainstay in everything I put together.

David Peralta FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - ATL (Dickey) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.54 DK - 10.1

Yep, another lefty against R.A. Dickey. We touched on Jake Lamb and Chris Herrmann already, who remain some very nice options in both cash games and tournaments. We'll now move to David Peralta, who is very similar to Jake Lamb. They both absolutely obliterate righties at home and basically struggles against everything else. Fortunately, he's in a very strong match-up here. VERY strong. R.A. Dickey is going to have a lot of trouble in this match-up and I can't imagine a scenario where the top of this order is shut down. Chase Field is a huge hitters park and this D-Backs team mashes there. Dickey has posted a .340 combined wOBA, but has also gotten a bit lucky. Peralta is very fairly priced on both sites and I love him in all formats. He may also go a bit under-owned, as I expect a lot of OF's to garner some attention. Peralta is going to be one of my top options on the slate and I'll make sure I'm above the field.

Starling Marte FD 3200 DK 4400
Opponent - SF (Cain) Park - @SF
FD - 10.56 DK - 9.19

This is a matchup I really hope flies under the radar. Starling Marte should be upwards of 30% owned tonight. For one, he's in AT&T Park. While that is always a negative for power, Marte is a huge gap hitter and in AT&T Park, those end up as triples every time. He also faces off with Matt Cain, who gives up stolen bases like nobodies business. As for Cain against righties, no bueno. In 2017, Cain has posted a .350 wOBA and a 5.29 xFIP. The price is fine and I don't think the masses will be on the Pirates after leaving Coors Field. Marte has ctually been better against righties over the last 2 years with a .352 wOBA and 34% hard contact rate. Marte is a terrific way to go in both cash games and tournaments.

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