Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 7/20/17

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Pitcher

Early Slate

Jameson Taillon FD 8600 DK 9600
Opponent - MIL (Nelson) Park - @PIT
FD - 31.74 DK - 20.98
Jimmy Nelson FD 9300 DK 11700
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @PIT
FD - 28.68 DK - 19.13

There sees to be a ton more risk in the early slate when looking at pitching and this has me playing GPP only today. I list both guys in this matchup as I will definitely have shares of both as it is a tight comparison across the board when looking at stats. They have a very similar ERA, xFIP, K rate, both are running a bit unlucky when looking at their high BABIP's and both produce over 50% ground balls. The Pirates open as slight home favorites but I would not be shocked at all to see it shift by lineup lock. When looking at the matchups, Taillon has the most risk as the Brewers are a Top 10 team(wOBA & wRC+) against right-handed pitching but he also has the most upside as they strike out 25% of the time. Nelson faces a Pirates team that doesn't strike out much but rank in the bottom third of the league in hitting vs. righties. As I will be playing GPP only today I lean Nelson slightly as I feel he will be lower owned.

Main Slate

Madison Bumgarner FD 11200 DK 11800
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SF
FD - 43.75 DK - 28.89

Bumgarner fits perfectly into the GPP strategy as he comes with a ton of risk but a ton of upside as well. He is just one game removed from a three month DL stint thanks to a non baseball-related shoulder injury but pitch count was not a problem as he threw 102 over seven innings, giving up just four hits but was hurt with two homers against. He will now face the same team(Padres), this time at home with a little more regular preparation. When fully healthy, he is one of the best in the league with elite stuff and, at this point, there is no reason to believe he is not healthy. Last 14, days, lefties, righties, it doesn't matter. The Padres strike out 26% of the time. Mad Bum will soon be priced in the elite tier so take advantage while you can.

Catcher

Early Slate

Russell Martin FD 2700 DK 3900
Opponent - BOS (Fister) Park - @BOS
FD - 10.38 DK - 7.87

It's a sh*t show at catcher this afternoon so I will take the guy hitting second who has been swinging a hot bat. Martin has been a staple in the two-hole for the Jays lately and while the upside is fading late in his career, he offers a bit of stability today as he comes in with hits in seven of his last nine games. He is a lot riskier on DraftKings just under $4K but is a near must play on FanDuel at $2,700 today.

Also Consider: Sandy Leon(BOS)

Main Slate

Jonathan Lucroy FD 2300 DK 3300
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 9.52 DK - 7.35

I wrote him up yesterday but he ended up not making the start(risk of writing article night before), so I fully expect him to be back in the lineup tonight as no injury news is to be found. Here is a snippet of the write-up yesterday:

It's been a rough season for Lucroy who sports a .258/.303/.365 slash line but has been better lately with hits in five straight and nine of his last 10 going into Tuesday night. On top of that, he gets an elite matchup vs. a struggling(understatement) Kevin Gausman who has given up 13 earned runs in his last two starts pushing his ERA North of 6.00 for the season.  His fall down the lineup will hurt his overall projection tonight but in the mid $2K range on FanDuel, he is a perfect fit to load up on bats.

This 100% applies once again tonight as Miley has been equally as bad lately giving up seven earned runs in two of his last three starts with multiple home runs against in three of his last six starts.

Also Consider: Salvador Perez(KC)

First Base

Early Slate

Matt Carpenter FD 4000 DK 4500
Opponent - NYM (Lugo) Park - @NYM
FD - 11.45 DK - 8.75

First of all, he is eligible at first base on DraftKings and second base on Fanduel. No matter what site you are playing, he makes a consistent play who has been on fire since the All Star break. Yes, it's a small sample size, but he is hitting .476 in five games(23 PA) with 10 hits and only three strikeouts. He does possess some power upside but his game is much more about getting on base as the leadoff hitter and scoring runs. The matchup fits that profile tonight as he faces Seth Lugo who doesn't allow many long balls but has not been great with a 4.50 ERA and 4.65 xFIP on the season. Carpenter is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Justin Smoak(TOR)

Main Slate

Miguel Cabrera FD 4000 DK 4000
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 12.71 DK - 9.63

On the main slate, I will be taking a shot with Miggy tonight who comes in at $4K on both sites. We have talked about his declining bat speed and overall average all season but from a DFS perspective, he has still deserved our attention. The biggest decline has been against righties which is good news as he faces a lefty tonight and carries a .391 wOBA and 147 wRC+ vs. southpaws into the matchup.
Also Consider: Eric Hosmer(KC)

Second Base

Early Slate

Dustin Pedroia FD 3800 DK 4400
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.32 DK - 8.91

On the four-game early slate, Pedroia is most likely going to be the chalk but fading him could be a mistake. With two hits last and three runs batted in last night, he now has hits in eight straight and 10 of his last 11 games with three home runs and 12 RBI. he has also torched left-handed pitching with a .372 average, .435 wOBA and 173 wRC+ and gets a weak one in Liriano tonight who has given up 13 earned runs in his last 14 innings pitched(3 starts).
Also Consider: Scooter Gennett(CIN)

Main Slate

Ian Kinsler FD 3400 DK 4500
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 10.72 DK - 8.57

Another veteran leading the way on the main slate as we continue to target right-handed batters vs. Danny Duffy. The splits really stand out as he has dominated his left-handed counterparts holding them to a .220 wOBA and .180 average while giving up a .330 wOBA and holding a 4.81 xFIP against righties. Kinsler has hit for a similar average vs. both handedness but has shown much more power vs. lefties(.277 ISO vs .124) for the season. There are cheaper options(one listed below) who I trust more in cash games on DraftKings but on FanDuel it's Kinsler all day(or night).
Also Consider: Brandon Phillips(ATL)

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Shortstop

Early Slate

Zack Cozart FD 3300 DK 4200
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.88 DK - 7.76

It was a career best start to the season for Cozart who made his first All Star team after posting a .316 average, 395 wOBA and 142 wRC+ in the first half. He must have been a bit star struck as it took a couple games for him to find his groove going 0 for 11 in his first three games in the second half. He broke out again on Tuesday with three hits including a double and a home run and followed it up last night with four more hits including another home run. The options are limited at shortstop on the early slate so I will be paying up for Cozart in all formats.

Also Consider: Jose Reyes(NYM)

Main Slate

Brandon Crawford FD 3100 DK 3100
Opponent - SD (Chacin) Park - @SF
FD - 8.58 DK - 6.73

On the main slate, I will be taking the value route to free up some salary for big bats at other positions and either Bumgarner or Severino. Crawford doesn't bring a lot of upside to your lineup and has struggled for the most part like the entire Giants offense but has been consistent lately with hits in six of his last seven games with seven runs batted in. Plug Crawford in at a low cost and turn your attention to the rest of your lineup.
Also Consider: Elvis Andrus(TEX)

Third Base

Early Slate

Travis Shaw FD 4100 DK 4500
Opponent - PIT (Taillon) Park - @PIT
FD - 10.03 DK - 7.71

Let me start off by saying I hate small slates and sometimes can't avoid liking a hitter and the pitcher he is facing. I mentioned Taillon and Nelson above but do prefer Nelson and the Brewers in this game with Travis Shaw being my favorite bat in the game. He has exploded on the scene in his first season with the Brew Crew with an impressive .299/.365/.575 slash line with an already career-high 21 home runs and is just two RBI and eight runs short of tying career-highs in those categories as well. Obviously, if you are rostering Taillon you should avoid Shaw but if you are going heavy on Nelson at SP, Shaw is a high floor/high ceiling option at the position.

Also Consider: Jedd Gyorko(STL)

Main Slate

Nicholas Castellanos FD 3600 DK 4300 
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.65

No J.D. Martinez? No problem. The Tigers still have plenty of firepower to up hold their top overall rank in wOBA(.356), wRC+(124), and ISO(.226) vs. left-handed pitching. They currently have seven hitters with at least 40 at-bats vs. southpaws with a wRC+ greater than 100 and right near the top is Castellanos with a .416 wOBA and 164 wRC+ on the season. After hitting .285 last season, he has return closer to his career mark at .255 but has shown an improvement in the power department as he is close to eclipsing career highs in home runs, RBI and runs scored.

Also Consider: Manny Machado(BAL)

Outfield

Early Slate

Jay Bruce FD 2400 DK 4300
Opponent - STL (Lynn) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.69 DK - 8.15

The price is a little steep on DraftKings as Lance Lynn has been pitching great lately but FanDuel is practically begging us to play him over there in the mid $2K range. It's not a completely contrarian approach either as Bruce has crushed right-handed pitching to the tune of a .395 wOBA and 147 wRC+ on the season. While Lynn has held opponents off the score sheet consistently this season with a 3.40 ERA, the xFIP sits over a run higher and he has been giving up a ton of home runs(17% HR/FB rate).
David Peralta FD 3300 DK 4500
Opponent - CIN (Castillo) Park - @CIN
FD - 12.42 DK - 10

Until he lets me down even once, I will ride that train all the way to the station. The cost for Peralta has stayed in the value range all season and while the power numbers are down from his breakout 2015 campaign, he has been extremely consistent. He has picked up three hits in back to back games extending his hit streak to eight games and pushing his average up to .318 for the season. Tonight he faces rookie Luis Castillo who has shown some electric stuff through five starts with an 11.17 K/9 rate but has also had issues with control(4.34 BB/9) and the long ball(22.2% HR/FB rate). Roster Peralta with confidence in all formats.

Also Consider: Mookie Betts(BOS)

Main Slate

Justin Upton FD 3600 DK 4300
Opponent - KC (Duffy) Park - @KC
FD - 11.8 DK - 9.24

You had to know I was going here in the outfield for tonight, right? Either way, here we are with another Tiger in the write-up. The projection system is bullish on the Tigers and it makes sense as the lead the world in hitting vs. left-handed pitching and Upton is another one of the seven on the team with plus splits. He comes in hot with hits in five of his last six games including four multi-hit efforts.

Also Consider: Matt Kemp(ATL)

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