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The Orioles have taken the first two games of this series by a combined score of 15-2 but don't count out the Rangers. I actually like targeting both teams as a game stack tonight as it holds the highest Vegas total(10.5) of the slate and pits two pretty bad pitchers against each other. Both have five wins but losing records on the season and while Gausman sits with the much worse 6.39 ERA, both have am xFIP over 4.5 for the season. Perez has somewhat limited the home runs lately giving up just two in his last five starts but Gausman has been an absolute gas can giving up four home runs last start and 13 total earned runs over his last two starts. The only risk here is that both teams are just below league average when looking at handedness splits but both have dangerous lineups and the upgrade with the matchups is too much to pass up.
Baltimore Players to Target: Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo, Adam Jones, Jonathan Schoop, Welington Castillo
Texas Players to Target: Shin-Soo Choo, Elvis Andrus, Nomar Mazara, Jonathan Lucroy, Roughned Odor
Maybe going a bit off the board here as the Mets are currently outside the Top 10 in implied runs tonight but the matchup smells too good. They face Mike Leake who just barely strikes out over six batters per nine and scares no one with his 90 mph fastball. It's his five-pitch arsenal that helps get him over 50% ground balls but I am just not buying the 3.14 ERA this season. He is prone to blow up games as control is everything and when he is missing his spots, the ball leaves the yard(only 23% FB's but 14.6% HR/FB rate). Leake has also struggled much more against lefty bats with a pitiful 3.99 K/9 and a wOBA against that is 28 points higher. A dud could definitely be in the works but the upside here is worth the risk, especially considering you can get them at a projected low ownership. Perfect for tournaments.
Top Bats to Stack - Michael Conforto, Asdrubal Cabrera, Jay Bruce, Lucas Duda
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