Rickie Fowler on the 16th hole during the final round of the Phoenix Open golf tournament, Sunday, Feb. 7, 2016, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.
That's right folks. The season's third Major Championship has arrived and will return to the historic Royal Birkdale Golf Club for the tenth time in its history. The Birkdale Golf Club itself dates back to 1889 when it was formed. Royal Birkdale Golf Club hosted its first OPEN in 1954 with the winner, Peter Thomson, becoming a legend in these parts. He picked five OPEN titles in all, two of which came here. The first and the last.
The most recent winner of the OPEN here at Royal Birkdale is Padraig Harrington who hoisted the Claret Jug back in 2008 with a winning score of +3. That is only the second time since 1999 the winning score has come in above par. The wind was the major factor in 2008 as it howled around 20-25 mph all week with some huge gusts. The course is a links setup and the wind itself can affect scoring by multiple shots and is the number one defense. The second defense system is something we don't often see on links courses with narrow flat fairways. The extremely penal rough is also present which is going to put a huge amount of weight not only on Strokes Gained Off the Tee but with emphasis on Driving Accuracy.
There are some risk/reward holes(Hole # 5 comes to mind) where longer hitters can cut some of the doglegs but the penalty is huge for missing so we can expect a ton of "placement" drives this week. Proof of this is the news that Phil Mickelson will not be using a driver this week, rather turning to his trusty 3-wood that he used to win the 2013 OPEN at Muirfield. He has instead opted to carry a 64-degree iron for those tricky up and downs. Speaking of scrambling, I feel it will be crucial this week to not losing multiple shots to the field. I will be looking at a combination of scrambling and strokes gained around the green in my model.
With all that in mind, let's jump in and take a look at some of my favorite picks for the week. At the bottom, I will also be looking at the top tagged golfers on FanShareSports to try and find a GPP ownership edge. And do not forget to go check out Fantasy National Golf Club, a new DFS PGA tool from the Moose. Words cannot do it justice so go see for yourself.
Royal Birkdale Golf Club - Southport, England
Par 70 - 7,156 Yards
Greens - Bentrgrass Mix
Past Five Winners
My Key Stats(no particular order):
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($8,100)
FanDuel ($7,800)
Outside of Euro Tour player Ryan Fox, Paul Casey comes into the OPEN with top form on my sheet. He hasn't missed a cut on teh PGA Tour since the Sony Open back in January and his last five finishes have been T5, 26th, T10, T22, and T12. Digging even deeper and using the Fantasy National tool, we see that over his last 24 rounds played, Casey ranks 10th in Draftkings points, 13th in Strokes Gained Tee to Green, and 6th in Strokes Gained Approach. He comes back to the OPEN with spotty history making nine cuts in 14 attempts with just two top 10's, the latest coming in 2010. This has kept him out of the Top 10 in FanShareSports tags which could mean he comes in under owned. Combine this with the value price and I will be using Casey in all formats.
Rickie Fowler
World Golf Ranking (#10)
Vegas Odds (16/1)
Draftkings ($9,200)
FanDuel ($9,600)
Rickie could very well be the highest owned player this week but that doesn't make him a bad play at all. He comes in with some excellent form including three Top 5 finishes in his last four PGA Tour tournaments and is coming off a T9 in last week's Scottish Open in preparation for this week. Look at the Fantasy National Tools, Rickie has also led the field in DraftKings points over his last 24 rounds of golf and ranks 4th in Strokes Gained total, 16th in Strokes Gained Approach, and 3rd in Strokes Gained Putting. In seven OPEN appearances, Fowler has made the cut six times with two Top 10 finishes. At a salary under $10K on both sites, Rickie is in play in all formats this week and I fully expect him to lurk on the leaderboard come Sunday afternoon.
Hideki Matsuyama
World Golf Ranking (#2)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($9,000)
Another pick that comes at a fantastic value under $10K on both sites. He edges out Masters Champ Sergio Garcia slightly for the top spot when looking at my weighted stats as he ranks 9th in SG:OTT, 19th in SG: APP, 22nd in SG:ATG, 4th in Par 4 Scoring, and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. Over his last 24 rounds played, he ranks 14th in the field in both SG: OTT and APP. For Hideki it always seems to come down to the putter and we have seen it pop for him before. Since his T2 at the US Open a month ago, he has played just once and it was a T14 on the European Tour's Irish Open at the start of the month so he is going to be fresh and is another top value that comes in under $10K.
Sergio Garcia
World Golf Ranking (#5)
Vegas Odds (18/1)
Draftkings ($10,600)
FanDuel ($9,400)
My first pick from the upper tier takes me to Sergio Garcia who sits right in the middle of tier. He trails Matsuyama just barely overall in the weighted stats rankings but has the edge in SG: OTT(3rd), SG:ATG(15th), and Driving Accuracy(23rd). He has also been one of the most consistent players on Tour this year making all 11 cuts with a win at the Masters, eight Top 25's and has finished outside of the Top 30 just once(T49 at Genesis Open). From a DraftKings perspective, he has scored the fourth most average DK points per tournament over the last five tournaments and two of those players(Suri, Fox) play on the European Tour. Sergio has also had a fairly sparkling OPEN history with 10 Top 10's in 20 tries including three straight Top 5 finishes and he no longer holds the "He just can't win a Major" tag.
Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (160/1)
Draftkings ($6,600)
FanDuel ($5,900)
Stanley has shown up as a top stats play all season and finally came through with his second career win at the Quicken Loans National at the start of July where he led the field in SG: OTT and was 4th in SG:APP. Going into this week, he ranks Top 10 in both stats on the sheet and Top 30 in Par 4 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, Scoring Average(overall), and Birdie or Better %. The only player on the PGA Tour has scored more average DraftKings points than Sergio Garcia? Yep, you guessed it. Kyle Stanley. After spending the last six tournaments seeing his salary slowly rise into the $9K range, it is back down in the mid $6K range(-$741 from season average). He makes an excellent low tier play on both site with upside.
Jamie Lovemark
World Golf Ranking (#85)
Vegas Odds (200/1)
Draftkings ($6,400)
FanDuel ($5,400)
Digging down into the value range, which is where we will need to go if we want multiple top tier players, we find another one of the more consistent options on tour over the last five months. He missed four cuts in 11 tournaments to start the year but since March has made 11 of 12 cuts with Top 10's in two of his last five tournaments. While I don't think he is going to win the OPEN, I do think he has Top 25 upside which makes him a great play on both sites. Over the last 24 rounds, he has had some issues with the approach shots(71st) but ranks 12th in DraftKings points and 18th overall in Strokes gained Tee to Green.
Stewart Cink
World Golf Ranking (#171)
Vegas Odds (225/1)
Draftkings ($6,300)
FanDuel ($5,500)
The 44-year-old Cink is never a sexy pick but covers all the bases this week. He has made 13 of 18 cuts at the OPEN in his career including a win at Trump Turnberry in 2009 and comes in with some excellent form this year. He has made five straight cuts on Tour including two Top 10 finishes(St. Jude, Dean & Deluca) and ranks 9th overall in SG:APP and 20th in SG: Putting over the last 24 rounds.
Also Consider: Bill Haas
As of Tuesday afternoon, Sergio Garcia leads the way in tags in the upper tier and by an even wider margin when looking at the start recommendations. I talked about him above as being safe in all formats but if you are looking to go a bit contrarian there is no shortage of options this week. Three golfers in this range(McIlroy, Rahm, Day) that have double-digit sit tags with some very low sentiment ratings. My favorite out of that group is world #1 Dustin Johnson who is coming off back to back missed cuts at the Memorial and US Open and has a negative sentiment rating for the week. Rory is right up there for me this week but DJ gets the edge when looking at the flat stick as he ranks 26th on Fantasy National when looking at the last 24 rounds overall vs. Rory's 104th rank.
The two most tagged golfers in the field headline the $8K/$9K range this week. Rickie Fowler already has a whopping 54 tags with zero sit recommendations. The price is just too low to fade a player with great form and stats rankings. Tommy Fleetwood would be the fade for ownership if I had to choose one of the two as he has yet to make a cut at the OPEN in his three attempts. Outside of the players I mentioned in the article above, I also like Phil Mickelson and Adam Scott this week. Both come in under $9K and have terrific OPEN Championship history. Phil's last four finishes have been Win, T23, T20, and runner-up last year while Scott has finished Top 10 in four of the last five years with three Top 5's.
No surprises here as Matt Kuchar leads all golfers in this range with 39 tags(35-1 start/sit). He comes in with great form having finished T4 last week at the Scottish Open and before that had made the cut in eight straight PGA Tour events including three Top 10 finishes. his high tag count and sentiment rating will likely have him Top or at least Top 10 in ownership meaning there is a great case to be made to fade him in GPP's. The same goes for Francesco Molinari who is T11 overall in the tag count and while he won't be as popular as Kuchar, the two of them should soak up a ton of ownership in this range. On of my favorite GPP plays in this range(not listed above) is Shane Lowry at $7,900 on DraftKings. He is definitely risky having no Top 10's this season but he has been consistent with five Top 25's and has made 9 of 11 cuts with on Withdraw. His tag count is probably as low as it is right now as he has missed the cut at the OPEN in back to back years but what I like is that, at least statistically, he fits the profile I am looking for. On my cheatsheet he ranks 14th in SG: OTT, 31st in SG:Putting, and 21st in Driving Accuracy and looking at Fantasy National, he ranks 14th in DraftKings points over the last 24 rounds.
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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