Los Angeles Dodgers starting pitcher Clayton Kershaw throws against the New York Mets during the first inning in Game 1 of baseball's National League Division Series, Friday, Oct. 9, 2015 in Los Angeles. (AP Photo/Gregory Bull)
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Opponent - CHW (Gonzalez) Park - @CHW
FD - 44.6 DK - 25.34
We've got Kershaw and Coors Field on the same slate, and that always presents a bit of a conundrum for GPPs. But in cash games, we think the choice is pretty clear. There's only one true ace on this slate, and he just happens to be the best pitcher in the game over the past several seasons. There isn't much we can tell you about CK you don't already know. He's among the league leaders in ERA (2nd), FIP (4th), xFIP (3rd) and Ks/9 (6th) in 2017. Now consider the fact that those are his "worst" numbers since 2012 and you get a sense of how dominant this guy has been. The White Sox are a tough matchup for most lefties, ranking fourth in wRC+ and wOBA vs. LHP, and on a different slate, that might give us the least bit of pause. Not tonight. Robbie Ray and Brad Peacock are the only other usable guys for cash game purposes, and they come with their own risks. Just lock in Kershaw and then start looking for value bats.
Opponent - SEA (Gaviglio) Park - @HOU
FD - 29.58 DK - 15.03
If you must look elsewhere (don't), we think Peacock is your best bet. He'll have to tangle with a tough Mariners lineup (6th in wRC+ vs. RHP), so it won't be easy, but there's upside here. Peacock is putting up a blistering 12.26 Ks/9 this season, and that number has somehow improved slightly since he moved into the rotation. He's also completed six full innings his last two times out, so the worries about a shortened outing have been alleviated -- kind of. He's still walking tons of guys, which runs up the pitch count and cuts into his win/quality start probability. Like we said earlier, everybody's got risks, and Peacock's outweigh Kershaw's in our view. But if you're looking for a way to fit in a couple of bigger bats, Peacock is our top choice.
Opponent - SEA (Gaviglio) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.72 DK - 8.8
Before the lineups start rolling in Tuesday afternoon, we won't have a full picture of where our best value plays might be, but catcher is always a decent spot to save some salary. McCann isn't fully punt-priced, but he's cheap enough, especially if he lands in the middle of Astros order -- a heightened possibility with Correa leaving Monday's game early. Sam Gavigilio, a 27-year-old rookie, gets the call for Seattle tonight, and while his surface numbers don't look that terrible -- a 4.31 ERA is not that far off from league average these days -- there's still plenty to like here. He doesn't miss bats and is getting hit pretty hard, yielding a .365 xwOBA vs. lefties. Meanwhile, McCann remains the guy he's always been. The wOBA has been sliding consistently ever since the shift came into vogue, but the power numbers (.186 ISO) remain sturdy and his Ks are down pretty significantly in 2017. Perhaps just as attractive is the fact that the Astros' loaded lineup should provide plenty of opportunities for run creation, especially against a weak SP.
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.83 DK - 8.36
Dylan Bundy's strong start is quickly becoming a distant memory. After posting a 3.09 FIP in April, he went 5.05 in May and 6.37 in June. Yeah, monthly splits are kind of arbitrary, but the point stands: this guy hasn't been very good over the last couple of months. And while his season-long numbers still look solid against righties, if we drill down to the last 10 starts, we see that he's yielding a .369 wOBA against them. Not great. Of course, Lucroy has had his own issues this season. The improved contact rate has been largely wasted by a decrease in walks and the near-total evaporation of his power. That's disconcerting, for sure, but it's baked into the price. You're getting him for next to nothing, and we're OK with a park/pitcher/price play pretty much any time at catcher.
Opponent - TEX (Ross) Park - @BAL
FD - 13.05 DK - 9.71
Davis is in his second straight season of falling numbers, and at 31 years old, it wouldn't be unreasonable to expect continued decline. That said, we're not paying for peak-era Crush here, and we don't have the slightest hesitation paying these prices for a guy with a .257 ISO vs. RHP this season in a park that caters to left-handed power. We've only seen about 30 IP out of Tyson Ross over the last two seasons, so we're not entirely sure what he is at this point. But for what it's worth, he's struggling with his command, not striking guys out, and his fly ball rate is on the rise. Sure the sample size is minute, but we've seen nothing to convince us that we're not getting a great deal on Davis here.
Opponent - MIN (Colon) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.84 DK - 9.65
Bartolo's back! The 44-year-old has caught on with the Twins after getting 86'd by the Braves, and we're looking for any chance we can find to pick on him tonight. It may not be easy. Gary Sanchez and Aaron Judge are understandably priced up, but Holliday's tag is totally doable while still paying for Kershaw. He hasn't done much since coming off the DL, so if that concerns you, so be it, but the projection system shares none of your worries. What it cares more about is the fact that Colon gave up a .423 wOBA vs. righties during his time in Atlanta, and Holliday has a .366 wOBA and .298 ISO in the split this year.
Consider: Mark Reynolds, Cody Bellinger
Whit Merrifield FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Boyd) Park - @KC
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.85
Kinda quietly, Whit Merrifield is doing some nice work this season. A .287/.326/.459 triple slash line might not inspire poetry, but give him a decent price tag and add 15 stolen bases to the mix, and we've got a usable asset. That goes double against Matt Boyd, whose .387 woBA allowed vs. righties this season is only marginally worse than his career number of .366. In other words, he's never really been able to get right-handed hitters out, and he's worse at it this year.
Opponent - TB (Snell) Park - @OAK
FD - 9.29 DK - 7.12
Ok, so Lowrie's productivity vs. LHP has headed downhill over the last couple of seasons, even has he's experienced a rebirth in 2017. That's a strike against him, and the park is another one. Does that make you looks elsewhere in your bargain hunting? Maybe, but on DraftKings, the value might just too good to pass up. On either site, we'd like Lowrie a little more if he were to move back into the top 1/3 of the order, because as far as we're concerned his on-base game plays better (especially against a control-challenged starter) at the top of the lineup. But batting fifth, as he has been since Marcus Semien's return, still puts him in a good spot, so we're not overly discouraged.
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Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF
FD - 11.28 DK - 8.69
The fly-ball revolution has worked wonders for Yonder Alonso, Justin Smoak and plenty of others. Lindor? Not so much. I mean, it hasn't been quite as bad as a 40-point drop in OBP might lead you to believe -- the increase in HRs has kept the drop in his overall production pretty small. But still. There are some parks in which I'm happy to pay for this upper-cutting version of Lindor, but AT&T ain't one of them. On the other hand, this is still a 23-year-old who's shown the ability to hit .300, swipe 20 or so bags and post a .200 ISO (albeit not in the same season), so we're still talking about a major talent at a position relatively deprived of offensive firepower.
Opponent - ARI (Ray) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.31 DK - 7.48
Gross. Shortstop is not looking great tonight, so if you're looking for a punt position, it might be a prime candidate. And it doesn't get more punt-y than Peraza, who is min-priced on FanDuel, and coming in as a nice value in our projections. That's not to imply that he's good or anything, because after finished 2016 on a scorcher, he's been a big disappointment so far this year. What really hurts is the fact that he refuses to take a walk, something Robbie Ray has been known to offer up -- sometimes in abundance. When Peraza gets on base, he's a bona fide threat, but, unfortunately, a .276 OBP doesn't afford many opportunities to flex one's wheels. Ugh. .276. Like I said, it's gross, and we're not going to pretend it isn't. So keep your eyes open for late-developing value at the position. Maybe Stephen Drew draws another start and gets the 2-hole again, or maybe Addison Russell cracks the lineup and gets a decent slot in the order. But even as cheap as they are, both of those guys will cost you 10-25% more than Peraza, and that's about the best case for him we can make: he's super cheap and he'll (probably) be starting.
Opponent - TEX (Ross) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.2 DK - 10.95
This FanDuel price is just too cheap, you guys. I know the batting average says .238, but it's a lie. Well, technically, it's not, but insomuch as it purports to measure the worth of a hitter, it's a big, fat fiction. Machado hasn't been the elite producer we've come to expect him to be, but his hard contact rate is actually up, and according to Statcast, his batting average is still more than 25 points lower than it should be. Meanwhile, he's still supplying legitimate power with 18 HRs and a .211 ISO. We still like him best against LHP, but we won't hesitate to deploy him against a Tyson Ross who looks like a shell of his former self right now.
Nick Castellanos FD 3100 DK 3600
Opponent - KC (Wood) Park - @KC
FD - 11.47 DK - 8.89
The projection system isn't quite as high on Castellanos in terms of raw points, but for value, he could be the better buy. Another victim of batted ball misfortune, Castellanos has one of the biggest gaps in xwOBA-wOBA in all of baseball this season. Against lefties, his .348 wOBA is totally respectable, but consider what his price might be if that number were closer to his .416 xwOBA and you can understand why we like him tonight. The park isn't great, but Travis Wood is giving up a .360 wOBA vs. righties this season, and Castellanos has been getting at-bats in the No. 2 hole vs. lefties lately, and we think those factors more than make up for what Kaufman takes away.
Consider: Kris Bryant. If you're not paying for Kershaw, Bryant deserves a long look any time he gets a lefty.
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @CIN
FD - 13.62 DK - 10.65
Opponent - CIN (Romano) Park - @CIN
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.35
We're gonna give you two pairs of teammates in the outfield, all priced similarly and playing in great parks. Feel free to mix and match as you see fit, because we like the spot for all of them nearly equally. The two Diamondbacks will cost you little more (at least on DK), but the park/pitcher combo is a tough one to pass up. Most of us had never heard of Sal Romano before he went five solid innings in Colorado before the break, but don't put much stock into that performance. Both the minor league numbers and the scouting reports tell us this is a mediocre arm in just about every regard. David Peralta gets the advantageous LvR platoon split here, and he's our preferred option by a narrow margin, mostly for that reason. He's got a .358 wOBA vs. RHP on the season, and a .369 mark for his career, and though he hasn't put up much in the way of power numbers in the past, a career .193 ISO tells us the potential is there to take advantage of the Great American Smallpark. But don't dismiss Pollock based on Peralta's platoon advantage -- Pollock has actually been a reverse splits guy for the bulk of his career and has kept it up in 2017 with a .355 wOBA vs. RHP.
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.66
Opponent - BAL (Bundy) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.57 DK - 8.19
For the sake of saving a few DK bucks, we might lean slightly toward the Texas duo with a Arizona one-off, but really, we're splitting hairs either way. As mentioned earlier, Bundy has struggled lately, and these Rangers lefties are well-equipped to take advantage of Camden Yard's favorable dimensions. Choo can work a count with the best of them, drawing a 13% BB rate this year against RHP, to go along with a .340 wOBA and .176 ISO. Those numbers are off his career averages, but he's clearly still finding ways to produce from his spot atop the Rangers' order. Meanwhile, Mazara is showing a pronounced preference for righties in his second season, posting a .346 wOBA and .208 ISO in the split. Also: though finding differentiation isn't our primary concern in cash games, it'll interesting to see where ownership falls on the Rangers tonight. Lots of DFSers are going to be smarting after the unlikely pitchers duel between Cashner and Tillman on Monday night, and that could create an edge for the steady hands out there who can overcome recency bias and grab some bats to pick on Bundy's .346 wOBA allowed vs. LHP this season.
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