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The Orioles are actually favored in this game, and if Andrew Cashner's impending regression comes all at once, this one could turn into an offensive free-for-all. It's going to be a warm night in Baltimore with a breeze drifting out toward left, so both sides are definitely in play. We're siding with the Rangers based on the preponderance of left-handed bats who can take advantage of the short porch in right, as well as the copious generosity of Orioles starter Chris Tillman. He's been one of the worst regular starters in baseball this season with a 7.90 ERA, a 6.24 FIP and a .440 wOBA allowed vs. lefties. You couldn't ask for a softer matchup. Choo, Mazara, Odor and Gallo all look like nice pieces, but don't feel like you have to fade the righties. Tillman's giving up a .410 wOBA against them, so there's no need to skip Andrus, Beltre or pretty much anybody else who makes the starting lineup.
No word on whether it required Jason Heyward to call another players-only pow-wow, but apparently the Cubs decided over the All-Star break that it was time to stop sucking. They scored 27 runs in the three-game set over the weekend at Baltimore, and sure, that could be a fleeting glimpse of the offense they were expected to be, but based on the talent in this lineup, it wouldn't surprise anybody if it was the beginning of a second-half resurgence. But narrative aside, there's plenty to like in this matchup. Even when he's been good, Julio Teheran is notorious for his struggles with lefties (career .343 wOBA allowed), a problem that's been exacerbated by the move into SunTrust Park, which appears to favor left-handed power. He's only faced 112 batters in the new digs, so the sample isn't as large as we'd like, but 3.5 HRs/9 is eye-popping. We just can't ignore that. So, yeah, dial up Anthony Rizzo, and any other lefty who gets the call, and, of course, Kris Bryant is rarely somebody you're going to want to leave out of your Cubs stack.
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The Rockies have the highest implied total on the board by a pretty good stretch, so if you're building multiple lineups, you're probably going to want some exposure. But even more than usual, this one feels especially like a feast-or-famine play. They'll be facing Luis Perdomo, an extreme groundball guy. He's got a 72% groundball rate against righties and 61% against lefties, so he's not somebody we usually want to load up against in a normal setting. Coors Field, of course, is anything but normal. Perdomo relies heavily on the curveball, and that's problematic in Denver, where the thin atmosphere flattens out the dip on vertically moving pitchers. I dunno why. Science, I guess. Anyway, the net result is basically what happened to Mike Hampton during his ill-fated term with the Rockies (back-to-back years with a 5+ ERA). So, like I said, feast or famine. Perdomo only has one previous start in Coors, so there's a lot of guesswork involved here. Maybe he gets rocked, maybe he coaxes 15 worm burners and keeps the Rockies at bay. I don't feel entirely confident betting on either outcome, but I'd rather take on shot on the former than fade the Rockies completely.
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