Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Luckiest / Unluckiest Hitters & Pitchers - 7/12/17

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Lucky

Aaron Judge

HR - 30 wOBA- .466 

BABIP - .425 HR/FB % - 41.2%

There is absolutely no way to bash Aaron Judge for what he has done over the first half of the 2017 season. He has been the best player in the game and is hitting bullets in what seems like every single at-bat. While it's really fun and exhilarating to watch, it won't last. Unfortunately, Aaron Judge is worse than the likes of Ted Wiliams, Mickey Mantle, etc. He's not going to put up these gaudy numbers for too much longer.The first big caution flag is the BABIP. For a guy who isn't very fast, a .425 BABIP is out of the water. It will fall back down to around .310 by the time it's all said and done and his wOBA will follow. You also see a 41.2% HR/FB rate that is nearly comical. A guy like Stanton, or even Barry Bonds, will hold a 25% number in their best seasons. 41% is unheard of and while there's a chance Judge is just that dominant, I find it hard to believe. Now to be clear, I still think Judge is an extremely dominant OF'er and a guy who will be around a long time in the pinstripes. I just don't think he's anywhere near the player a guy like Trout, Kershaw, Goldschmidt, or even Bryce Harper is.

Mark Reynolds

HR - 19 wOBA - .390 
BABIP - .364 HR/FB % - 26%

We go from a younging to and oldie in Mark Reynolds. It's great to see Reynolds hit well in Coors Field, where we often use him for DFS. The problem is the guy is on the downswing of his career and has no business rejuvenating like he has. He's already hit 19 homers on the season and is on pace to have one of his best seasons ever. Unfortunately, math has something to say. Reynolds has posted a .364 BABIP and 26% HR/FB rate. While those numbers aren't nearly as crazy as Judge, a guy who can barely run should hold a BABIP around .290. The Rockies have relies on Reynolds a ton with Cargo struggling and we may see him take a load off in the 2nd half. He is still a talented righty with some pop, but doesn't deserve to be talked about like a guy who makes a real difference on a contender. H's  swing-happy 1st baseman who strikes out a ton and relies on Coors Field for production.

Ben Gamel

AVG - .323 RBI - 29 
BABIP - .422 K rate - 24%

Ben Gamel has slid into that 2 spot in Seattle and surprised a lot of us. It seems like every night he's sending one down the line or over the fence, bringing in at least a run or two. While I think he may have the best chance to continue what he's doing, it just comes down to his spot in a lethal order. Surrounded by Segura, Cano, and Cruz, you can expect Gamel to see more than a few pitches to hit. He has and the results are in the books. He's hit 4 homers, driven in 29, and hit for a .323 average. That all likely halts in the 2nd half. I actually think we see a concrete move where Mitch Haniger takes over the 2 spot eventually. Gamel is simply getting way too lucky, sporting a .422 BABIP. His hits will stop evading fielders and start finding gloves. Gamel is young and he still has a lot of things to improve on, so he could get better. He's just not the guy his surface stats tell you he is. Not yet at least.

Others - Miguel Sano, Domingo Santana
 

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Unlucky

Manny Machado

wOBA - .312
BABIP - .239 HR/FB% - 16%

I know there are a ton of Manny Machado haters out there and I'm sure they will say the guy just stinks and it a hothead. While he very well may smell bad and he does get a little too upset at times, you can't argue how well the kid can hit a baseball. Right now, he has struggled with a .312 wOBA, while hitting just 18 homers and stealing 4 bags. Oh yea, he's also sported a league-low .239 BABIP. Yes, you read that correctly. The somewhat speedy Manny Machado is holding a .239 BABIP. He has still managed to put it over the fence 18 times and he has remained a solid GPP option throughout the half-season. He'll now hopefully get some luck on his side and return to being one of the top 3rd basemen in baseball. If his BABIP returns to the .310 it has been at for the duration of his career, he will once again see a Woba reach into the .400's. In 2016, when math treated Machado fairly, he slammed 37 homers and ended up with a .365 combined wOBA. Make sure you don't ignore Machado in the 2nd half, especially when he is underpriced like he has been.

Maikel Franco

HR - 13 wOBA - .280
BABIP - .215

Possibly the unluckiest hitter in baseball. Sporting a .215 BABIP is really all you have to know. It's not realistic and once it rises, so will all of his other numbers. Maikel Franco is one of the more promising and young power hitters in the game and he has gone nowhere. He's still the same monster that can hit it 450 feet and will hit 40 homers more than once in his career. He absolutely demolishes lefties to a .411 wOBA (career) and has more power per-AB against righties. He also plays at Citizens Bank Park, where the ball tends to fly. Franco will start seeing a bit more grass and you can fully expect the XBH's and RBI's to rise. This Phillies team is by no means even decent, but Franco is one guy who has seen some severe unluckiness.

Others - Mike Napoli, Todd Frazier, Jose Reyes

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