Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Kentucky Speedway - Sparta, KY
Track - 1.5 Mile D-Shaped Oval Intermediate
Banking - 14°
This week the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series travels to Kentucky Speedway for the Quaker State 400 on Saturday night. This marks the seventh year that the highest series in NASCAR will race on the intermediate track and as you will see shortly, it has been dominated by a just a few drivers. That could change a bit this season with races now run in stages which has proven to change up the strategies on most tracks.
From a fantasy perspective, we are back to trying to nail down one or two dominator drivers as each of the six races here have seen one driver lead 100+ laps and half of those races seen that driver win the race. The correlation between starting and finishing position is also back up after seeing a negative correlation at Daytona. That doesn't mean place differential should be discounted, however, as multiple drivers starting 20th or back have finished inside the Top 10 in three of the last four races and with stage racing we should see it once again this year.
Let's now dig in and take a look at some of the top trends and soem of my early week/pre-qualifying picks.
It doesn't matter whether you look at the last two or six years here at Kentucky, there are five drivers who have owned it. It starts with Brad Keselowski who has won here three times and if not for the 33rd in 2013 he would top the average finish career ranks as well. It is Kyle Busch and teammate Matt Kenseth with that honor. Busch won the inaugural race here in 2011 and also won the 2015 race and has two other Top 5's with a 10th & 12th place finish. Besides Busch and Keselowski, only Matt Kenseth has won a race here in the Cup Series and is the only driver to finish all six races inside the Top 10. Looking at potential dominators, it has been Brad Keselowski(483) and Kyle Busch(437) who have led the most laps with only one other driver(Kevin Harvick) leading more than 100 laps.
Topping the list is the #78 of Martin Truex Jr. who has five wins(Darlington, Charlotte, Chicago, Las Vegas, Kansas) and has led 1,719 laps since the start of the 2015 season. What's more impressive is when you start looking at his DraftKings points per intermediate race. I wrote an article over at JagerBombs Fantasy Sports Blog looking at the new feature on the trends sheet looking at average DK points per track type in 2017 and Truex is blowing the field away. Through five intermediate races this season, he has average 93.9 DK points while the next closest driver(Kevin Harvick) has 58.4 per race. Finding the dominator at the intermediate tracks is so key!
Things look a little crazy here as there is only one winner in Kevin Harvick on the list but the other winners just haven't been as consistent lately. Get ready for Joe Gibbs Racing to break through and grab that first checkered flag of the season as both Denny Hamlin and Kyle Busch have been strong lately with four Top 10's each and an average finish below 10. There is also two value plays in Ryan Newman and Erik Jones on the list who each have three Top 10's in the last six races. Both could be considered in all formats this week depending on qualifying, of course.
These are the three drivers I am looking to build my lineups around this week.
Kyle Busch ($10,200) - I am going to ride the hot hand until he wins and I feel it very well could be this week. He has won two of the six races here with 437 laps led and comes in red hot with two Top 5's and four Top 10's in his last six races.
Kevin Harvick ($9,800) - Getting Kevin Harvick, master of the mile and a half tracks, under $10K and the fifth most expensive driver seems like a steal. He has finished Top 10 in four of the six races here and is also one of just five drivers to average over 50 points per race on intermediate tracks.
Joey Logano ($9,000) - This play comes down to price, bottom line. Logano has once again reached a season low salary and with his encumbered win, he sits outside the cutline at the moment for playoffs adding to the motivation that already exists.
**Check back following practice and qualifying**
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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Link to my picks article following practice and qualifying. https://www.sportsblog.com/jagerbombs/daily-fantasy-nascar-picks-quaker-state-400/