Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - The Greenbrier Classic

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

The Greenbrier Classic

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf and a huge Happy July 4th to all my friends and followers in the United States of America. This week the PGA Tour heads to West Virginia for the Greenbrier Classic. The tournament was canceled in 2016 after flooding destroyed the Old White TPC. It was completely overhauled during the last calendar year and reports are it is looking as beautiful as ever.

Looking at the course overview on PGATour.com, the fairways are lined with trees but appear to be very generous and should see somewhere around a 70% average in greens hit for the week. This is going to allow us to weigh driving distance a little higher this week but I will still be concentrating on Strokes Gained Approach for my top stat. I will also be looking closely at the Future of Fantasy's Golfanac to pick out some players who perform well on Par 70 courses and Bentgrass Greens. Let's quickly take a look at the course stats, past winners & scores, and my top stats and then jump into the picks for the week.

 

The Course

The Old White TPC - White sulfur springs, WV
Par 70 - 7,287 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass

**Click to Enlarge**

 

Past Five Winners

• 2016 - Cancelled Event
• 2015 - Danny Lee (-13)
• 2014 - Angel Cabrera (-16)
• 2013 - Jonas Blixt (-13)
• 2012 - Ted Potter Jr. (-16)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained Approach
• Strokes Gained Off the Tee/Driving Distance
• Par 4 Scoring
• Birdie or Better %

 

Top Current Form Targets

David Lingmerth
World Golf Ranking (#93)
Vegas Odds (20/1)
Draftkings ($10,000)
FanDuel ($7,600)

Looking at the five tourney average finish, there is no one hotter in the field than Lingmerth. He is coming off a T5 at TPC Potomac and has not finished worse than T26 since the PLAYERS in mid-May. He also comes with excellent course history here at the Old White TPC finishing T6, T16, and T9 in his only three career trips here. He is a much better play on FanDuel where his salary is still in the mid $7K range while his price on DraftKings hit $10K making him a fade candidate if it feels like the CH will bring the ownership way up. I will be monitoring his mentions on FanShareSports up until lock to make that decision.

 

Danny Lee
World Golf Ranking (#81)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($8,400)

The defending champ(2015) comes back to defend his title and comes in with some top 5 form in the field. Like Lingmerth he hasn't missed a cut since the PLAYERS and has picked up all three of his 2017 Top 10 finishes since then. From a stats perspective, Lee ranks Top 20 in SG: APP, SG:P, and ranks 9th on the sheet in BoB%. I will be using Lee in all formats this week.

 

Kevin Streelman
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($6,600)

The 38-year-old PGA Tour veteran has been playing some of his best golf in a couple years. He finished T72 at the PLAYERS in mid-May and has finishes of T18, 13, T8, and T17 in his last five tournaments. Looking at the Strokes Gained stats, he ranks inside the Top 30 in all except around the green and putting and he also ranks Top 20 in Par 4 Scoring. He doesn't have great course history here with no finish better than T56 in three attempts but that could also help keep his ownership way down this week, especially on DraftKings where he is $2,300 more than on FanDuel.

 

Who the Stats Like

Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#67)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($9,100)
FanDuel ($8,900)

He ranks #1 overall in my model and is led by his top stats in the field. He is ranked 2nd in SG: OTT, 14th in SG: APP, 6th in Driving Distance, 5th in Par 4 Scoring, 2nd in BoB% and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. He also finished 13th here in 2015 in his first trip to the Old White TPC and should be able to easily sneak into the TOp 10 here with the weaker field this week. He is going to be popular as he is currently the top tagged golfer on FanShare but with his distance and all-around game, he is a top play in all formats.

 

Stewart Cink
World Golf Ranking (#156)
Vegas Odds (80/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($7,200)

Dipping down into the sub $7K range, we find Stewart Cink who ranks quite high in my stats model this week. While his SG: OTT ranks outside the Top 50, he averages about 294 yards off the tee and ranks 4th overall on the sheet in SG: APP. He is also a killer on the Par 4's ranking 3rd on the sheet and he also stands out ranking 4th in BoB% and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. This will be his first trip to the Old White TPC in his career but with his stats I full expect Cink to make the cut and feel he has Top 25 upside.

 

Luke List
World Golf Ranking (#134)
Vegas Odds (110/1)
Draftkings ($6,400)
FanDuel ($6,100)

Luke List has been showing up in my stats model all season thanks to his spot on Strokes Gained stats. Looking at the sheet, he ranks 4th in SG:T2G, 7th in SG: OTT, 18th in SG: APP, and 35th in SG: ATG. He also has the distance I am looking for ranking #1 on the sheet averaging 311 yards off the tee. The issue with List has been the putting and is the main reason for so many missed cuts over the past few months. He will definitely be overlooked because of this but even if he can putt average this week should be able to make the cut and even provide some upside for the low cost.

 

 

Who is Being Mentioned on FanShare Sports (Top 5 in each Range)

$10K+ Range

 

As you would expect with a weak field event where almost everyone in the top half of the field saw a big jump in salary, there is a big mix of sentiment. Each golfer in the top range has at least one sit tag already. All six golfers in the upper tier are close in overall tags so it will be important to pay close attention as lineup lock approaches to help decide which golfers will be the most owned and which make the best GPP plays.

 

 

$8K - $9K Range

 

Tony Finau currently leads all golfers in all ranges in total tags and start recommendations so I fully expect him to be one of the Top 3 highest owned plays this week. I talked about him above and won't let ownership sway me from using him. With Bubba Watson being ignored, for the most part, I think he makes a nice GPP play considering he has course history here(T, T16 last two trips) and nails it on the distance/SG:OTT game. He is not in good form and is having a poor season missing six cuts in 14 events but does have three top 10's and should be low owned this week.

 

 

$6K - $7K Range

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

The Greenbier Classic Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

 

Weekly YouTube Video

**I am currently on holidays but will try very hard once back to the hotel tonight to get a video for you. Stay tuned for an update.*

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.