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Like we talked about in the cash game picks, Matt Cain is just begging to be picked on every time he steps out of San Francisco. He relies on fly-ball outs, and without the cushion of AT&T Park, he gets hammered. Since the beginning of 2016, he's got a 7.20 ERA, 6.02 FIP and 5.69 xFIP with a .395 wOBA allowed on the road. The Tigers haven't been great against righties this season, but they're easily equipped to do some damage here. Despite the mediocre team numbers vs. RHP, they have plenty of individual pieces doing good work. Alex Avila, Justin Upton and J.D. Martinez all have wOBAs over .340 and ISOs over .240 vs. righties this season, and assuming Upton is back in the lineup, they'll form a nice core occupying the 2-4 slots of the order. Ian Kinsler is also in play and Miguel Cabrera and Nick Castellanos deserve strong consideration. Both are among the league leaders in xwOBA - wOBA disparity.
To play these guys you're gonna have to fade Kluber and Kershaw, which sucks, but considering the massive implied total the Rockies are getting against Homer Bailey tonight, the upside is worth some exposure. Due to ongoing injury issues, we haven't seen much of Bailey over the last couple of seasons, but what we've seen has been bad. He's been blown up for 14 runs in just 4.2 IP in his two starts since coming off the DL, and while we don't want to put too much stock into a couple of bad outings, Coors Field isn't a great place for a rusty, struggling pitcher to suddenly find his footing. The Rockies are putting up a .352 wOBA and .200 team ISO at home against righties this season, led by some ridiculous numbers from Charlie Blackmon (.513 wOBA, .439 ISO), Mark Reynolds (.452/.344) and Nolan Arenado (.395/.285). Those guys are your chalk, but everybody in the lineup is in play.
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Miller Park can boost HRs with the best of them, and Ubaldo Jimenez is only going to help in that regard. His decline continues as he's getting shelled like never before in 2017, posting a 6.48 ERA, 5.75 FIP and 4.84 xFIP. The damage is especially massive against lefties, who own a .407 wOBA and 3.2 HRs/9 against him. That puts Eric Thames and Travis Shaw firmly in our sights, and we're fine with deploying a slumping Eric Sogard if he's at the top of the order. Also don't overlook Ryan Braun and Domingo Santana. Both guys have an ISO .225 or higher against RHP this season, and it's not like Ubaldo has been especially effective against righties either (4.84 xFIP).
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