Here's where you can find some recommendations for GPP stacks to target for FanDuel and DraftKings. Find our main set of cash game picks here.
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Even on an eight-game slate, we've got a lot of options for stacking tonight, with six offenses projected for five runs or more. The Rangers don't come with the highest implied total, and even though he's struggling some this year, tonight's foe Rick Porcello is far from the worst arm on the slate. But the blow-up potential is certainly present, and on FanDuel, the prices on the Rangers bats are very tempting. The deeper we get into 2017, the more last year's Cy Young campaign is looking like an outlier for Porcello. He's still limiting walks, and his Ks are actually up a bit, but he's getting hit hard. Sure, there's probably some back luck in that .367 BABIP, but he's also giving up 42% hard contact, so it's not like he's just getting burned by bloopers. Meanwhile, the Rangers have been pretty average vs. RHP this season, but they've got some legit pop, with the sixth-ranked ISO in baseball in the split (.196). You've also got plenty of guys to choose from scattered throughout the lineup to choose from. Beltre, Choo, Gomez, Andrus, Mazara, Gallo and Chirinos all own an OPS over .800 vs. righties this season.
A couple of things here make this an interesting play. A) The Red Sox don't hit for great power. B) Martin Perez, while bad, doesn't give up many homers. So, not an ideal combo for stacking, right? Maybe, maybe not. But what I'm more worried about is the fact that Boston's recent offensive bonanza (29 runs in the last three games) is going to drive up their ownership, because it's one thing to stack up an offense without the expectation of 3-4 homers, but it's a lot less appealing if 1/3 of the field is going to be on the same stack. That's troublesome, because the Red Sox have the highest implied total on the board, so they could end up pretty chalky. But as far as the lack of power goes, I'm not all that worried, because this offense can pile up runs without the long ball and Perez plus a great park should help their cause there. Even with a solid .98 HRs/9, Perez has a 4.70 ERA backed up by a 4.55 xFIP. Just as enticing is the .359 xwOBA vs. righties, so we like a bunch of Red Sox guys here. Betts, Bogaerts, Hanley and Pedroia are the obvious plays, but don't overlook Sam Travis and Chris Young for the bargains, and Jackie Bradley could be a sneaky play. JBJ has been crushing southpaws in 2017 (.484 wOBA). Sure it's only 59 PAs, but he could go underowned in the LvL matchup, so that makes him interesting.
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How you're going treat Coors Field is always one of the first questions you have to answer for yourself when creating GPP lineups, and its importance is maybe even more paramount tonight, because the lack of high-dollar SPs means it's going to be that much easier to stack up bats in baseball's best hitting environment. Of course, that also means Coors bats are going to be popular, and with an implied run total creeping up on 7 as of this morning, expect the Rockies to be heavily owned tonight. If you're building lots of lineups, it's probably smart to fade the game in at least a couple of them, but we can't recommend passing over the Rockies completely -- even though they haven't been that great vs. RHP this season and they've been in a funk lately. They'll be facing Reds rookie Luis Castillo, a so-so prospect who has made two big-league starts since making the jump from Double-A. There's not a lot of data to go with on Castillo, but he profiles as a pretty average arm across the board, and it wouldn't surprise anybody if he struggled badly in his first trip to Denver.
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Be careful about stacking Rockies tonight. As a Reds fan, I've seen both of Castillo's starts, and his stuff is electric. He got a no decision vs the Nationals, and he fanned 9 brewers while picking up his first big league win. Sure he can blow up tonight, but I'm keeping Rockies out of my lineups today.