Boston Red Sox's Chris Sale pitches during the first inning of a baseball game against the Tampa Bay Rays in Boston, Saturday, April 15, 2017, in Boston. (AP Photo/Michael Dwyer)
June has come to an end, July is upon us, soon we'll be at the All Star break, and before you know it, the pennant races heat up. For now however we have a full day of major league action. While Draftkings has contests scheduled nearly every hour, FanDuel is running an early only slate with 2 "main" slates starting with the 4:00 and 7:00 eastern sets of games. The picks for today are broken down into early and late with early being the first 4 games on the day, and late being everything from 4PM on, with recommendations for both main slates. We've got some solid arms going early on, with plenty of bats in the later set but no good pitchers, so there's a lot to cover. Let's dive in.
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EARLY
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 42.52 DK - 28.06
Every five days or so this is where we start out and rightfully so. For every statistic that matters, particularly in MLB DFS, Chris Sale is absolutely dominating through the first half of the season. His 12.27 K/9 is not only tops in baseball, it is also 2 whole batters higher than his career average. His 2.62 xFIP is also the best around. He's limiting the baserunners, cutting out the free passes, allowing only 1.66 BB/9, and keeping the ball in the yard. Sure, he's going to eat a hefty chunk of your salary, but the return on investment you get with Sale can't be denied as he's about as safe an arm as you'll find in baseball. Through his last 5 starts Sale has struck out an average of 9 batters per game while allowing no more than three runs and lasting a minimum of 6 innings through each start. Today he faces the Blue Jays, who try as they might can't put their early season struggles behind them and still rank dead last in the AL East. Toronto strikes out only 20.6% of the time, but that of course is an average, and Chris Sale is anything but average. He's pretty much match up proof, and of course is an elite play today in all formats.
Opponent - DET (Zimmermann) Park - @DET
FD - 32.44 DK - 21.48
If you want to go the contrarian route off of Sale and save a little salary to put on your bats, then look to Carlos Carrasco in Comerica Park against Detroit. Carlos was lit up by the Rangers offense on Monday allowing 7 runs in just 3.1 innings, in a game the Indians were able to bounce back late to get the win, though Carrasco of course was no factor in the decision. The only saving grace keeping him with a positive fantasy total was the 7 strikeouts he was able to muster during his brief appearance. Today is a new day however and with it comes a new offense. This time, the Tigers. The Tigers as a team sport a .319 wOBA against right handed pitching, which while not terrible, it does rank just below average. They also strike out 22.8% of the time against righties which puts them among the ten worst teams in baseball against the split. While he doesn't present near the safety that Sale brings along with him, Carrasco's 9.53 k/9 allows enough upside to take a flier on him in a large tournament in hopes of seeing the pitcher that fanned 10 while pitching six shutout innings against the Orioles back on June 21st.
LATE
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 35.35 DK - 18.74
Pitching in the afternoon and evening is a much dicier proposition compared to the options we see in the early afternoon slate. In the 4:00 set of contests, there isn't a single arm I have total confidence in so let's skip ahead to the twilight set, and look at Zack Greinke. Greinke was a 10K guy on FanDuel, and 12k on DraftKings for a good while there and the price has dropped down substantially which benefits us greatly particularly on FD where he is now well below 10K. Greinke's got a 10.2 K/9 and 3.16 xFIP at this point in the season, and takes on a Colorado team in Chase Field who hold a .300 wOBA away from Coors. The one knock against Greinke would be in the stamina as he doesn't tend to last long very often, making it to the seventh inning twice in his last 6 starts. That said, on a slate with not a lot to offer by way of arms, Greinke is one arm I feel pretty good about in all formats.
EARLY
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.16 DK - 7.84
Jonathan Lucroy comes in as the top point per dollar play behind the plate today in an afternoon match up with the White Sox and Derek Holland. Holland enters this contest with his former team with a 5-7 record on the season, rocking a 4.26 ERA and 4.99 xFIP. Lucroy, who's rocking a .292 wOBA has tailed off a bit in June after a solid month of May. He's currently 1-2 with a run scored in Friday night's series opener as I write this, which gives him a base hit in 5 of his last 7 games and bodes well for a chance to get July off to a solid start.
LATE
Opponent - NYY (Montgomery) Park - @HOU
FD - 11.36 DK - 8.68
While Jonathan Lucroy on the early slate is the top PPD play for the day behind the plate, Evan Gattis comes in with the top overall projected total at the position which puts him at the top of the pack in the late games. Today, as the Astros continue playing host to the Yankees, he will face off with Jordan Montgomery. While his power numbers have waned some this season Gattis is successfully putting the bat on the ball and making fantasy points happen in the process. Over his last 6 games he is 8 for 25 with 4 doubles and a home run, 7 RBI and 4 runs scored, averaging 13.72 FD points in that span. Not a bad look for a heart of the order catcher coming in below 3K on FanDuel. On both sites, Gattis is an excellent option in all formats.
Opponent - WSH (Gonzalez) Park - @STL
FD - 9.03 DK - 7.18
The clock may be running out on Yadier Molina's career, but the veteran backstop isn't going into the night quietly. He's closing out the month of June with the same tenacity he displayed through the whole month, going 2-3 with 4 RBI and a run scored as I write this during the series opener in St. Louis. This has pretty much been the theme of the month for Molina, who flew under the radar with a .284 avg, four home runs, and 7 RBI in 74 trips to the plate coming into last night's game. Molina is now riding a 15 game hitting streak, with 4 multi-hit performances in that span and will look to continue that tear into July against Gio Gonzalez.
Also consider: Caleb Joseph
EARLY
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 8.86 DK - 7.02
As they tend to be, the Red Sox are an offense to target on the early slate. Recent call up Sam Travis presents a way to gain cheap exposure to the Boston lineup while also locking in their ace on the hill as your SP. Travis hasn't lit the world on fire in his limited appearances this season, but he has put together some solid fantasy performances, finding his way on base, and surprisingly, for a bottom of the lineup guy, coming home to score 8 times I wouldn't lock him as a standalone, but he makes a great play in a Beantown stack.
LATE
Opponent - CIN (Undecided) Park - @CIN
FD - 15.55 DK - 11.86
The recent bite of the injury bug, particularly to Kris Bryant, has prompted a move from the leadoff spot to the three hole for Anthony Rizzo. Rizzo was elite at the top of Cubbies order, but the move down the lineup, only presents more opportunity as he should see more RBI opportunities now. Rizzo was dead at the plate, going 0-4 in last night's series opener. He will look to get back on track today against Jackson Stephens making his big league debut.
Opponent - MIA (Undecided) Park - @MIL
FD - 11.62 DK - 9.08
This pick is of course predicated on Thames actually being in the lineup today, as the Brewers have sat him on the bench for 2 straight in favor of Jesus Aguilar. Thames was the hot hand for a stretch there in May and early June, but has since cooled off some and now is looking at reduced time in the lineup. Despite his struggles, Thames .390 wOBA is still among the top ten at the position this season, though he did dip from .342 in May to .284 in June. While some regression was anticipated during his early season tear, the current slide has really hurt Thames' value, and I hope to see him back in the lineup tomorrow with an opportunity to redeem himself against Tom Koehler. If he isn't in the lineup consider Lucas Duda against the Phillies with a similar projection.
Also consider: Albert Pujols
EARLY
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.35 DK - 9.1
If you're playing Chris Sale on the early slate, (and, you are, right?) then we need to look for the best value plays with our bats, and one of the top PPD plays of the day at second base today is the Rangers Rougned Odor. Odor, who homered last night for the first time in nearly 2 weeks, now has hits in three straight and 4 of his last 6. He also brings along with him some stolen base upside. Two swipes against the Indians on Thursday night put's him at 9 for the season on 13 attempts. While I don't look much at stolen bases for cash plays, it certainly can add to a players upside, which has me liking Odor in both cash and tournaments today against Derek Holland.
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.64 DK - 8.37
Pedroia returned to the lineup Friday night after knee soreness held him out of Thursdays contest. As of this writing he currently has a double with 2 RBI and 2 walks, so it would seem the knees aren't anything to be too concerned over. Today he will step into the box against Francisco Liriano. The 33 year old southpaw comes into the game today with a 4.15 ERA and 4.92 xFIP. He's struggling with his control this season walking nearly 5 batters per nine, his highest total since 2012, while also allowing a 1.61 WHIP and .317 BABIP. As I mentioned earlier, Boston is an offense to get exposure to, and Pedroia is a great way to do so either as a stand alone or as a part of a stack, in all formats.
LATE
Opponent - CIN (Undecided) Park - @CIN
FD - 11.43 DK - 9.05
As I said earlier, pitching is anyone's guess on the mid afternoon tilt, so going cheap and paying up for your bats is probably going to be the way to go. With price not being an issue for bats, we can look to Ian Happ at second base. Happ isn't even a break the bank type of play, all in all, but still, would probably not be in consideration, if Chris Sale was taking the hill 3 hours later in the day. Happ has been seeing the ball pretty well as of late, hitting safely in 10 of his last 11 games. He started out the season solid, with a .319 wOBA in May and cranked it up in June with a .374 and today he takes on a young kid making his big league debut. I'll have a ton of exposure to Happ this afternoon.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @NYM
FD - 10.67 DK - 8.38
Asdrubal Cabrera has cooled off a bit after coming back from the DL with a bang back on the 23rd. Going 1 for his last 8 after a 10-21 start in his first 5 games back, he will look to bring the boom back against Jeremy Hellickson who possesses the highest xFIP in the big leagues at 5.69 and is allowing 1.6 HR/9 with a 5.56 SIERA. The price on Cabrera has been holding steady, and makes for an elite option given the match up.
Also consider: Brandon Drury
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EARLY
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 11.45 DK - 9.15
Another position, another Red Sox bat. This time around it's shortstop Xander Bogaerts. Bogaerts is the top raw point play at the position today. Xander took Friday night off following an 0-4 outing Thursday night against the Twins. Prior to that he had hits in 8 of his last ten games with 9 RBI and 7 runs scored in that stretch. He'll return to the top of the order today against Francisco Liriano, and is in play in all formats.
LATE
Opponent - CIN (Undecided) Park - @CIN
FD - 10.23 DK - 7.94
The injury bug in Chi-town didn't just stop with Kris Bryant, it also bit Addison Russell last weekend. After a 3 game stretch out of the starting lineup (though with a couple of pinch hit appearances), Russell is back in the lineup, but it remains to be seen if he's feeling 100% as he's 1-7 in his last two games. Today should show us something as he takes on Jackson Stephens in his big league debut. I'm not sure how safe I feel with Russell, but if the rookies nerves get the best of him against the world champs, the Cubbies could beat him around early and often.
Also Consider: Chris Owings
EARLY
Opponent - MIN (Berrios) Park - @KC
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.11
Mike Moustakas homered for the second time in three games last night in the series opener with the Twins. It was his 20th knock of the season tying him with Joey Gallo for the lead at the position and has him well on pace to crush his career high of 22 set in 2015 before an injury shortened campaign last year. The .351 wOBA combined with the .272/.310/.540 slash line indicate Moustakas is looking at a career year as his .315 avg. and .392 wOBA for the month of June suggest he is just getting better as the season goes along. Today he faces the Twins Jose Berrios who is having a solid season of his own so far, but at this point, especially for the price, Moustakas is a solid option regardless of the match up.
LATE
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BAL
FD - 14.38 DK - 11.08
Manny Machado doesn't exactly fit the definition of safety, however over the short term his price has seen a steady decrease, down nearly 1k from where it was just two weeks ago, and with that, he jumps to the forefront of the conversation when looking at cash game plays, especially on an afternoon where pitching is just atrocious. In 3 games against Toronto, Machado was 0-11 with just two walks, and was hitless again last night in the series opener with the Rays. Today he steps in against Jake Odorizzi, who caries an ERA of 4.00 through 74.1 innings this season, allowing a .326 wOBA with a 4.52 xFIP against right handed hitters. As long as the price continues dropping the O's third baseman will always be in consideration for my cash games.
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @LAA
FD - 9.82 DK - 7.51
Despite his numbers hovering at career low levels as we open the book on July and draw closer to the All Star Break, Kyle Seager is showing signs that he could be returning to form in recent games. He opened this weekend series with the Angels in Anaheim going 3-4 as I write this, following a 2-4 performance against the Phillies in which he took Mark Leiter Jr. long. This gives Seager 8 hits including a double and 2 home runs in his last six games played. Today the Angels send Ricky Nolasco to the mound looking to bounce back following a humiliating loss to start the weekend. It won't be easy. Nolasco is 3-9 with a 4.86 ERA, a 3.02 BABIP and is allowing 2.28 HR per nine. If Seager is beginning to turn his season around, Nolasco will give him a perfect opportunity to continue doing so, and I will have plenty of exposure.
EARLY
Opponent - TOR (Liriano) Park - @TOR
FD - 10.66 DK - 8.28
Here we are once again with yet another Red Sox player. If you're not stacking Boston, then Chris Young is the Boston bat you want to target as just a way to gain exposure to the lineup. He is the top PPD play in the outfield on the early slate, and hits in the heart of an elite lineup which presents him with both opportunities to drive in runs, and to make his way around to score himself as evidenced by his 17 RBI and 19 runs on the season. When you consider the possibilities and then factor in the price, he's a clear must play across the board.
LATE
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.64 DK - 9.61
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.72 DK - 9.86
Opponent - TB (Odorizzi) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.78 DK - 9.71
In the late afternoon set, The Baltimore outfield could be a solid stacking option with all three being top PPD plays in the systems early projections. Seth Smith leads the way for several reasons, not only is he the cheapest of the bunch on both sites, he also hits leadoff in the Baltimore lineup and hits from the left side, which is huge against Jake Odorizzi, who isn't threatening from either side of the plate but his xFIP is nearly .060 points higher against left handed hitters. This doesn't take away anything from Adam Jones and Mark Trumbo however, as the right handed hitters at the heart of the Baltimore lineup see their own advantages. Against right handed hitters, Odorizzi is allowing nearly 4% more walks, and 2.28 HR/9. The WHIP and BABIP are equally bad from either side of the plate, as is the wOBA allowed with only .020 seperating either side of the split. Regardless of how you want to attack it, you're in a solid spot with the Orioles outfield today, either as cash plays or stacked together in a large tournament.
Opponent - COL (Chatwood) Park - @ARI
FD - 10.61 DK - 8.89
We close things out today with Gregor Blanco of the Diamondbacks taking on Tyler Chatwood in Chase Field. Last night he was 1-4 with a run scored in game one of the series with the Rockies. This gives him 2 straight games with a hit following a 2 extra base hit performance against the Cardinals on Thursday ended a 4 game skid at the plate. He'll attempt to keep the streak alive against Chatwood, who has struggled this season, with a 4.32 ERA backed up by a 4.62 SIERA, and a 4.37 xFIP. He's rocking a .331 wOBA against left handed bats, and has walked 8 more batters from the left side of the plate. With Blanco's price dropping down to it's lowest point since the start of June, the sites are just begging you to play him.
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