Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/30/16

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Pitcher

Jacob deGrom FD 12100 DK 12500
Opponent - PHI (Lively) Park - @NYM
FD - 41.26 DK - 27.07

Friday night is another case of overpriced pitchers due to the limited elite options on a 15-game slate. It starts with deGrom who has reached a season high salary on both sites but is at home as a huge favorite(-250) in an elite matchup. The Phillies rank second to last in overall runs scored in 2017 and rank 27th in wOBA(.300) and wRC+(83) vs. right-handed pitching with a 23.5% strikeout rate. Since being blown up by the Rangers in early June, deGrom has been red hot winning three straight, going eight or more innings in all three while allowing just two earned runs and striking out 19 batters. On a full slate, there should be no issue finding value to fit with deGrom in cash games and we all know the upside he brings in this matchup for GPP's.

Alex Wood FD 10500 DK 11700
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 37.87 DK - 24.77

The salary trend continues with Wood who, like deGrom, has reached a season-high salary on both sites. If you are at all worried about deGrom's high price reducing the upside of your bats, I think Wood makes a great pivot in cash games as he also gets and elite matchup tonight. He will face a Padres team that has scored fewer runs than the Phillies on the season and they also rank dead last in wOBA(.278) and wRC+(71) vs. left-handed pitching with a 25.3% strikeout rate. Earlier in the season, the pitch count was an issue when rostering Wood but he has seen it trend up in each start over the last three and is coming off a season-high 98 pitches last outing. Wood has made 11 starts in 2017, holding opponents to zero or one earned run in eight of those starts and also provides big upside with a 10.5 K/9 rate and 13.0% swinging strike rate.
Lance McCullers FD 8800 DK 9500 
Opponent - NYY (Pineda) Park - @HOU
FD - 39.08 DK - 20.74

While the first two pitchers are safe plays in all formats, McCullers is not recommended for cash games but makes a terrific contrarian GPP play tonight. Unlike the first two options, McCullers is coming at a discount tonight, especially on DraftKings where his salary has reached a season low. I get it. The Yankees are a scary opponent for any pitcher to face as they rank third in runs scored and second in wOBA(.355) and wRC+(121) vs. right-handed pitching. McCullers has been equally impressive on the mound and comes in with a 1.54 ERA and 2.50 xFIP since the start of May with a 10.4 K/9 rate and 13.1% swinging strike rate. There are strikeouts in the Yankee lineup as they do K 22% of the time vs. righties so the upside is definitely there if you can stomach a low floor.

Catcher

Alex Avila FD 3100 DK 3900
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @DET
FD - 10.9 DK - 8.21

Looking at the early projections on Thursday night, the system once again loves Alex Avila as he ranks second in raw points and sits Top 5 on both sites when looking at PTS/$. He let us down yesterday but I am getting right back on the horse today as he has some alarming splits vs. right-handed pitching this season. He leads all catchers in wOBA(.455), wRC+(189) and hard contact(61%) vs. righties with 12 home runs. He faces a bit of a gas can of a righty in Josh Tomlin tonight who comes in with a 6.09 ERA after giving up four or more earned runs in three straight starts and eight times overall this season. He also gives up the long ball with six home runs against in the last three starts for a 15.3% HR/FB rate and 37% hard contact rate against this season. If he is once again batting second, Avila should be considered in all formats.
Willson Contreras FD 3300 DK 3700
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @CIN
FD - 9.27 DK - 7.2

Overall, it has been a disappointing season for Contreras but things have been looking up lately as he made his way back up the lineup. Since being moved into the three hole on June 18, Contreras has picked up hits in eight of his last 10 games with four home runs and 10 RBI. The Cubs are really going to need that production moving forward as we are uncertain at this point how long Kris Bryant will be out after rolling his ankle. He gets a matchup vs. Scott Feldman who has been nothing more than an average arm this season with a 4.07 ERA and 4.18 xFIP with 14.9% HR/FB rate. While he doesn't give up a ton of earned home runs, he has given up one in three straight and six of his last seven starts.

Also Consider: Russell Martin (TOR)

First Base

Miguel Cabrera FD 4000 DK 3900
Opponent - CLE (Tomlin) Park - @DET
FD - 13.5 DK - 10.23

Miggy is my top play at the position on DraftKings tonight with his salary still in the sub $4K range and it likely won't be there for much longer. The decline has been noticeable early in the season but the future Hall of Famer has really started to heat up in June. He is hitting .272 with a .361 wOBA and 125 wRC+ and has hit five home runs equalling his total for the first two months. Like I mentioned with Avila, the Tigers get a plus matchup vs. Josh Tomlin who is giving up nearly 40% hard contact with a 15% HR/FB rate. Tomlin has also been a tick worse vs. right-handed bats with a .377 wOBA against. Look for Miggy to hit value once again on Friday.

Edwin Encarnacion FD 3600 DK 4600
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @DET
FD - 12 DK - 8.96
Carlos Santana FD 3300 DK 3800
Opponent - DET (Sanchez) Park - @DET
FD - 12.12 DK - 9.15

We will stick in the same game for the next set of first basemen to target tonight. There is a very good chance this game is the highest scoring of the night with two gas cans going head to head. Anibal Sanchez has actually been much worse than Tomlin this season with a 6.75 ERA, 5.09 xFIP and 21.7% HR/FB rate. Most of these numbers are from his 11 bullpen appearances and he has been better since re-joining the rotation and this is why the EE and Santana fall just behind Miggy tonight. I, personally, don't buy the transformation as he had equally bad number last season in 24 starts. Edwin Encarnacion has been the more consistent option this season and the easy call on FanDuel at just $300 more. On DraftKings, if you are playing two top pitchers and need the salary relief, Santana makes a nice option and if you're playing Arcade Mode you can pair both of them together.

Also Consider: Kendrys Morales (TOR)

Second Base

Robinson Cano FD 3600 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @LAA
FD - 11.21 DK - 8.61

If you're paying up for a second baseman tonight, strongly consider Robinson Cano. he is having another All-Star worthy season with a .282/.339/.480 slash line with 14 home runs and 52 RBI which is second among those at the position. He comes into the series with the Angels red hot with hits in four straight and six of his last seven games with three home runs and 12 RBI and gets a premium matchup. Parker Bridwell's ERA of 2.95 is a bit deceiving considering the xFIP sits at 5.32 and he has already given up five home runs in three starts for a 19% HR/FB rate. He also doesn't strike anyone out(5.1 K/9) and is giving up just over 35% hard contact. Cano is a slightly higher value on FanDuel where he comes with a $500 discount off the top option.

Logan Forsythe FD 2900 DK 3100
Opponent - SD (Richard) Park - @SD
FD - 10.35 DK - 8.14

With both of the top pitchers in elite matchups tonight and over $10,500 on both sites, we are going to need some value plays to fit them into our lineups. If Logan Forsythe is back in the top half of the lineup he will most definitely be the top value at the position and possibly overall. His season average is barely hovering over the Mendoza line but mainly due to his shocking splits as he has really struggled vs. right-handed pitching. Lefties have been no problem, however, as he carries a .405 wOBA and 155 wRC+ into tonight's matchup with Clayton Richard who despite being a ground ball pitcher, gives up the long ball with a 17.7% HR/FB rate. Look for Forsythe to take advantage.

Also Consider: Jason Kipnis (CLE)

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Shortstop

Elvis Andrus FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.3 DK - 8.89

The price is starting to creep back up but there is still room to buy Andrus at a value on Friday night. The price tag has been more than justified as he has been Top 5 at the position all season when looking at wOBA and wRC+ and has been even better over the past two weeks with a .412 wOBA, 156 wRC+ with three home runs and 11 RBI(leads all SS in this timeframe). Andrus has also shown reverse splits this season being very productive vs. right-handed pitching with a .359 wOBA and 120 wRC+. Good news! He gets to face Mike Pelfrey tonight who has surprised most people this season with a 3.73 ERA but don't be fooled. His xFIP sits at 5.27 and even the ultra low .250 BABIP suggest he will come crashing back down to Earth. I fully expect the Rangers to tee off on Pelfrey tonight making Andrus an excellent play in all formats.

Eduardo Escobar FD 2900 DK 3200
Opponent - KC (Vargas) Park - @KC
FD - 8.92 DK - 7.02

While I wouldn't trust Escobar in cash games with his .330 wOBA overall, I do think he makes an excellent salary relief option with upside if you are paying up for multiple high-end pitchers. He has been cold over the last week or so but really stands out when looking at handedness splits. He is currently hitting .344 against left-handed pitching with a .421 wOBA, and 164 wRC+. The matchup doesn't stand out as strong vs. Jason Vargas as he comes in with an 11-3 record and 2.29 ERA but the xFIP of 4.65 and below average K rate(6.7 K/9) suggests there is some room for regression so I am fully comfortable with Escobar's upside tonight.

Also Consider: Carlos Correa

Third Base

Evan Longoria FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.32 DK - 9.41

While the perception with Longoria is to target him against left-handed pitching, I would suggest the opposite approach in 2017. For almost his entire career he has put up positive splits vs. southpaws up until last year where he started raking vs. righties. It carried over into 2017 where he comes in with an average almost 100 points higher with a .332 wOBA and 109 wRC+. The matchup vs. Tillman is also a big boost as he has been a disaster this year walking just under five batters per nine with an  8.39 ERA and 17.9% HR/FB rate. Longoria is a safe play in cash games in all formats, especially on Fanduel in the mid $3K range.

Jedd Gyorko FD 3500 DK 4400
Opponent - WSH (Roark) Park - @STL
FD - 11.02 DK - 8.48

Another play at third base that comes in the next tier down but gets an elite matchup putting him right near the top when looking at the PTS/$ rankings. With a career-high .337 BABIP we are likely to see some regression of his impressive first half numbers but until he starts showing it, buckle up and enjoy the ride. I am not worried about any splits in this one as he carries a wOBA over .350 and wRC+ over 120 vs. both lefties and righties and comes in with eight runs driven in over his last four games helping the Cards keep within striking distance in the NL Central. The narrative of targeting terrible pitchers is the key behind the pick as Tanner Roark has given up 19 earned runs over his last three starts and at least one home run in five straight. Gyorko is safe in all formats.

Also Consider: Kyle Seager (SEA)

Outfield

Bryce Harper FD 4600 DK 5500
Opponent - STL (Leake) Park - @STL
FD - 12.97 DK - 10.01

If you are looking for a contrarian angle in tournaments tonight you can always fade the top tier pitchers pay up for bats. Looking at the high-end bats in the outfield, there are two names(Judge being the other) that sit in a class of their own right now. While Judge looks matchup proof, you have to take into consideration he is facing a much better pitcher in Lance McCullers while Harper faces Leake who is nothing more than an average arm. After disappointing 2016 season following the NL MVP award in 2015, Harper has gotten back to elite status with 18 home runs to go along with his .319/.422/.589 slash line. Harper separates himself even more on FanDuel where he comes at a $400 discount from Judge.
Shin-Soo Choo FD 3300 DK 4400
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 11.91 DK - 9.31

If you are planning to pay up for pitching, which is going to be the optimal way to go, you will need some value plays to make it work. Enter Shin-Soo Choo who value price on FanDuel has him right near the top of the PTS/$ ranks which is most likely to have him across the majority of the optimal lineups tonight. The nice part about Choo is that he hits at the top or near the top of the lineup and while the average(.253) isn't anything to write home about he is getting on base at a .375 clip and has power upside with 12 home runs and 39 RBI so far this season. He is safe in all formats on Mike Pelfrey day.

Mallex Smith FD 2800 DK 3800
Opponent - BAL (Tillman) Park - @BAL
FD - 10.83 DK - 10.33

Mallex Smith is once again a top value play, especially on FanDuel where his price has dropped back below $3K tonight. He comes in 0 for his last 10 but don't be alarmed as he has been excellent since stepping into the leadoff role for the Rays at the start of June. In 17 games since the move, he is hitting .328 with a .364 wOBA and 131 wRC+ and has shown off his speed upside with six steals. He has been caught four times but it is a great sign to see the Rays giving him the green light. As long as he is back at the top of the order he is a near must play if you are paying up for deGrom or Wood.

Also Consider: Mookie Betts, Curtis Granderson, Josh Reddick

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