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Daytona International Speedway - Daytona Beach, FL
Track - 2.5 Mile Tri-Oval Superspeedway(Restrictor Plate Track)
Banking - 31°
This week the Monster Energy NASCAR Cup Series travels back to Daytona International Speedway for the Coke Zero 400. This week's race will take place on Saturday night underneath the lights as it always does on the Independence Day weekend(although this year it falls on a Tuesday). I love it as the race falls on Canada Day, which also happens to be my birthday and the start of my holidays. Note to self: enter lineups the night before.
The Coke Zero 400 is the third of four restrictor plate races of the season which once again changes up the strategy. The correlation of starting position to finishing position is about as low as we will see throughout the year. Looking at the cheatsheet, I documented the last six summer races here at Daytona and no one year had a correlation higher than .375 and 2015 even showed a negative correlation. This combined with the fact there are only 160 laps and stage racing, brings the importance of dominator points down while giving a huge boost to place differential in my model. Before jumping into the aerly week pickslet's take a look at some of the trends from Daytona.
Since the start of the 2015 season, Joey Logano has a win at Daytona and comes in with three straight Top 6 finishes for a 7.8 average finish. Denny Hamlin 2016 Daytona 500 and has three Top 5's in his last five races here but back to back 17th place finishes could leave him a bit lower owned than Logano. And that leads us to this year's Daytona 500 winner, Kurt Busch, who has finished 23rd, 5th and 3rd in his last three summer races here at Daytona. Austin Dillon has raced here three times in the summer in a Cup car and has been very impressive with a 5th, 7th, and 7th last year. Rounding out the Top 5 is Kevin Harvick who has had trouble in his last two Daytona races(22nd, 39th) but finished Top 5 in the three before that to maintain an average finish below 15 since the start of the 2015 season.
All the focus this week will be on the #88 of Dale Earnhardt Jr. who will be taking part in his "final" race at Daytona as he will be retiring at the end of the season. I write this jokingly as Jr. has already announced he will be racing in some Xfinity races next season and told the media he wouldn't turn down a ride if someone asked about the 2018 Daytona 500. He leads all active drivers with four wins and has finished inside the Top 10 at Daytona 19 times in 35 career races while leading 601 laps. After Earnhardt Jr. there is a large group of drivers with an average finish in the 16-18 range. One other thing that stands out is that #22 f Joey Logano has never qualified inside the Top 10 here at Daytona in the summer and could show up as a top place differential value this week if it continues.
While Kurt Busch leads the field in average finish(8.8) at Plate Tracks, Joey Logano leads the way with three wins and also has six Top 10's. Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, and Kevin Harvick round out the Top 5 and are the only other drivers who average better than 15th at plate tracks since the start of the 2015 season.
Joey Logano ($10,000) - If you are fading the obvious chalk in Dale Earnhardt Jr. this week roll with Logano who has finished sixth or better in three straight and four of his last five Daytona races. Fords have also won five straight plate races and Logano gives them a great chance at extending that streak. Hopefully, for fantasy purposes, he can qualify back in the field to provide us with some place differential upside.
Kurt Busch ($9,100) - He ranks #1 in my pre-practice/qualifying model thanks to his plate track and Daytona history. He won the Daytona 500 earlier this year before going in a bit of a slump but appears to be heating up with Top 10's in three of his last five races.
Austin Dillon ($7,900) - It's been a season of high's and low's for the oldest Dillon brother as he picked up his first career win at Charlotte but only has one other Top 10 finish this season(Martinsville). The good news is that he has raced here at Daytona three times in the Summer race and finished 5th, 7th, and 7th.
David Ragan ($5,200) - The value in the sub $7K range doesn't really clear up until after qualifying but I have my eyes on Ragan at this point. His low salary will allow us to load up at the top with at three elite drivers and he has three Top 10's here at Daytona in his last five races and won the summer race here back in 2011.
**Check back Saturday afternoon following qualifying**
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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The cheatsheet has been fully updated following qualifying. Away on holidays and not likely going to get a video done this week but will try tomorrow morning. If not I will be posting my top picks on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).