Daily Fantasy PGA Picks for DraftKings & FanDuel - Quicken Loans National

DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).

Chris is also currently providing his DFS PGA cheatsheet for FREE while it is still in BETA mode. You can also grab a copy of the Salary/DK Points/Ownership Trends Sheet HERE.

 

Quicken Loans National

Welcome back for another week of daily fantasy golf. It was a disappointing at the Travelers, from a DFS standpoint, as I completely faded Spieth and was almost all in on Rory. FAIL! Seriously, if you have followed me or been reading my articles all season you probably think I am crazy and, well, you're right. I have mentioned Spieth in my article in almost every one of his starts.....Until this past week. While it was frustrating from a DFS perspective it was awesome to watch my favorite golfer go wire to wire and then somewhat hit a walk-off bunker hole out to take the trophy. The nice thing about daily fantasy golf is that after analyzing the mistakes and taking notes after a bad week we can put it behind us and move on to the next tournament. Let's jump in.

This week the PGA Tour travels to Potomac, Maryland for the 2017 Quicken Loans National. The tournament has shifted to a new location for this year's event after spending seven of the last 10 years at Congressional Country Club. The newly renovated TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm will play host this time around and it proves to be a nice test for the 120 player field. It played host to a regular PGA Tour event(Booz Allen Classic) up until 2006 when it dropped from the schedule after many of the big names failed to show up after the course was heavily criticized for it's less than satisfactory playing conditions. In 2009, it was completely re-designed with every hole seeing a transformation. Becuase of this, I will be treating it like a brand new course and not factoring course history whatsoever this week. For a deciding factor between two players, I will glance at the event history and see how players have performed at the QL National in the past.

It appears to be a week where accuracy off the tee will be more important than distance with narrow fairways and very penal second cuts of rough. The fairways are also described as fast rolling which not only gives a boost to the shorter hitters, it will also bring Good Drive % into play as there should be balls rolling out into the less penal first cut of rough. Overall, I am looking heavily in the direction of Strokes Gained Approach and Off the Tee(Ball Striking 2.0) stats. Off the Tee, I will be concentrating on accuracy as a tiebreaker between players and for approaches, I will be looking closely at accuracy from 175-200 and 200+ as there are six Par 4's over 450 yards and two more over 440 yards. Being a new course for most, I think we see a lower GIR% overall which will put some emphasis on Scrambling and Strokes Gained Around the Green but it is one of the lowest weighted stats as the guys missing greens are not likely in contention come Sunday afternoon. I am predicting the final score to fall in the -8 to -12 range this week so I will again be looking at Birdie or Better % as well.

For cash games, I don't think there is any reason to touch the Top 3 in DraftKings salary this week as there is a nice balance in the $9K and $8K range to construct very high floor lineups. For GPP's I will once again be using the tools over at FanShareSports to try and come up with some pivots off possible high owned golfers. I have my top picks and analysis on their tag count below the main picks.

 

The Course

TPC Potomac at Avenel Farm - Potomac, MD
Par 70 - 7,139 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass

**Click to Enlarge**

 

Past Five Winners

• 2016 - Billy Hurley III (-17, Congressional Country Club)
• 2015 - Troy Merritt (-18, Robert Trent Jones Golf Club)
• 2014 - Justin Rose (-4, Congressional Country Club)
• 2013 - Bill Haas (-12, Congressional Country Club)
• 2012 - Tiger Woods (-8, Congressional Country Club)

 

The Stats & Fantasy Approach

My Key Stats:

• Strokes Gained: Off the Tee/Accuracy
• Good Drive %
• Strokes Gained: Approach/GIR from 175-200 & 200+ Yards
• Par 4 Scoring
• Strokes Gained Around the Green/Scrambling

 

I will also be visiting the Future of Fantasy's Golfanac to take a close look at performances on Par 70 Courses, TPC Courses, and courses with Bentgrass Greens.

 

 

Top Current Form Targets

Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#35)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,800)
FanDuel ($8,500)

Looking at the average finish ranks over each player's last five tournaments, Marc Leishman tops the list with a 21.2 average finish thanks to five straight made cuts including three Top 20's and no finish worse than a T34. He didn't stand out at the Travelers last week but was very consistent shooting under par in all four rounds. He has some issues off the tee but was dynamite with the irons as he gained a total of 6.9 strokes on the field on approach shots. He also fits the stats model this week ranking 11th in SG: APP + OTT, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 13th in BoB% and 9th in Bogey Avoidance. I think he makes a great play to build a cash game lineup around under $10K and I am banking on his large jump in salary to help keep his ownership down in GPP's this week.

 

Kevin Chappell
World Golf Ranking (#26)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($8,000)

Looking at the new average DraftKings points tab on the cheatsheet we see Kevin Chappell's name right there at the top. Since missing the cut at the Genesis Open back in mid-February, Chappell has made every single cut(not counting non-DFS, team-even Zurich Classic) and has scored 50+ DraftKings points in all nine tournaments. That includes his season-high 111.5 point performance at the Valero Texas Open where he picked up his first career victory and a 95.5 effort at the St. Jude Classic where he finished T4. He comes in 12th overall in my model this week due to his lower ranks in Par 4 Scoring(64th) and BoB%(47th) but ranks 13th in SG: OTT + APP which really draws my attention this week.

 

Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (14/1)
Draftkings ($11,100)
FanDuel ($9,800)

If you are paying up for one golfer in the top tier this week, I prefer Patrick Reed who has some terrific form. Since missing three straight cuts in April, Reed has been not only consistent but has also been knocking on the door of another PGA Tour win. He has made six straight cuts with five Top 25 finishes including a T5 last week at the Travelers Championship. His only knock on the cheatsheet is the Strokes Gained: Approach but looking at his last five events, he has gained over two strokes to the field in the category and that is skewed big time by his U.S. Open performance where he lost almost two strokes to the field. Like I mentioned above, I don't think you need to go into this range for cash games but I think Reed is trending in the right direction and has the upside to win us a GPP this week.

 

 

Who the Stats Like

Brendan Steele
World Golf Ranking (#52)
Vegas Odds (25/1)
Draftkings ($8,900)
FanDuel ($8,800)

I could have easily fit Steele into the form tier as he has been one of, if not the most consistent golfer on the Tour. Outside of the missed cut at the team event Zurich Classic(which I don't count on my sheet), Steele has made 17 of 17 cuts with four Top 10's and nine Top 25 finishes. He is second in my stats model to only the player listed below thanks to field ranks of 14th in SG: APP, 12th in SG: OTT + APP, 2nd in Par 4 Scoring, and 5th in Birdie or Better %. He is ranked #1 in model this week and I will be building my cash lineups around him and also using him in GPP's.

 

Kyle Stanley
World Golf Ranking (#94)
Vegas Odds (45/1)
Draftkings ($7,600)
FanDuel ($7,000)

Stanley ranks #1 in my stats model this week and it didn't really matter how I weighed the stat categories. He tops the ranks in SG: OTT + APP, ranks 2nd in Good Drive %, 7th in Par 4 Scoring, 6th in Par 5 scoring, 13th in Bogey Avoidance, and 8th in Birdie or Better %. Stanley has also been very consistent this year missing just three cuts in 19 events and two of those coming before March. He has also picked up four Top 10's and eight Top 25 finishes and with a price in the low to mid $7K price range on both sites, I think he makes and excellent high-floor cash game play.

 

Charles Howell III
World Golf Ranking (#70)
Vegas Odds (70/1)
Draftkings ($7,000)
FanDuel ($6,500)

Assuming he is healthy after missing over two months with what seemed to be a rib injury, Chucky Three Sticks is a great play this week at a value price on both sites. He ranks 22nd in SG APP, 16th in SG: OTT + APP, 3rd in Par 4 Scoring, 7th in overall Scoring Average, 18th in BoB%, 2nd in Scrambling, and 1st in Bogey Avoidance. He played 15 events before the injury in April and made the cut in 14 with a runner-up, four Top 10's and eight Top 25 finishes. I don't see the Top 10 upside this week but at a price that is $1,000 under is DK season average, I think he is safe in all formats.

 

 

Who is Being Mentioned on FanShare Sports

 

$10K+ Range

The big thing that stands out here is that Justin Thomas is being mentioned considerably less than Patrick Reed or Rickie Fowler. This is due to his missed cut in last week's Travelers Championship where he lost almost four strokes to the field in Approach shots and just over 2.5 in his around the green play. From an ownership standpoint, I think he makes an excellent pivot off the top two this week in GPP's. He is #7 on my overall model this week and covers almost all the stats as he ranks Top 10 in SG: APP, SG: OTT + APP, Par 4 Scoring, Scoring Average, and BoB%.

 

 

$8k & $9K Range

David Lingmerth leads the way in this range as he played here at TPC Potomac on the WEB.com Tour and the same goes with Danny Lee who ranks #3 on the list on Tuesday afternoon. I was very surprised to see Brendan Steele third in start tags in this range and he also sits with four sit recommendations. This sways me to using him more in GPP's as I was already loading up in cash games. Right at the bottom of the $8K range on DraftKings this week is David Hearn who is seeing the least mentions in this range and it is mostly due to his salary jumping $1,400 this week. I think the combination of the guys at the top of the range who have played here with Hearn's big shift in salary keeps his ownership in the sub 5% range this week making him an excellent GPP play. He is also coming off back to back Top 10 finishes at the St. Jude Classic and Travelers Championship. Go Canada!

 

 

 

$6K & $7K Range

There are some excellent options in this range that make a balanced cash game lineup very possible. My favorites are Kevin Steelman, Bud Cauley, and Charles Howell III and Kyle Stanley who I wrote about above. For GPP's I will be fading Si Woo Kim who is drawing a lot of attention for his previous play on the WEB.com Tour here at TPC Potomac. Luke List is another player that stands out looking at the Tags list as he also has experience here from teh WEB.com Tour but has only been mentioned eight times, five for start recommendations. I will be keeping on eye on those mentions as lineup lock approaches.

 

 

**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**

 

 

Quicken Loans National Update Thread

**Weather Update**

 

Weekly YouTube Video

 

 

Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.