Boston Red Sox Dustin Pedroia swings against the Oakland Athletics in the first inning of a baseball game Tuesday, May 12, 2015, in Oakland, Calif. (AP Photo/Ben Margot)
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Opponent - COL (Marquez) Park - @LAD
FD - 31.81 DK - 20.91
This is one of the worst pitching slates of the entire year. In terms of a big slate like this, I can't remember one being this putrid. Even on most tough pitching days, you have a talented guy or two who's simply in a rough match-up. Today, we have a ton of very average arms. From Ariel Miranda to Scott Feldman to Chad Kuhl, there is a lot to ignore. By default, we've ended up on Brandon McCarthy. The Rockies currently hold the days' lowest implied run total at just 3.76 runs. McCarthy is cheap enough to not worry about being forced to pay down elsewhere, while also being expensive enough to not be 40% owned. The Rockies are one of the worst teams on the road in all of the league, sitting with a sad .298 wOBA dating back to 2015. CarGo, Blackmon, and Arenado are obviously all very scary, but the rest of the order strikes out a ton and don't have much upside in Los Angeles. Dodger Stadium is definitely a pitcher friendly park and McCarthy has been phenomenal there over the recent years. With that being said, he can be blown up with ease. This is a very weird slate and one where you may want to avoid cash games as a whole.
Opponent - MIL (Davies) Park - @ATL
FD - 27.73 DK - 18.46
Like every other pitcher on this slate, Teheran has a boatload of risk. There is a decent shot the likes of Travis Shaw and Eric Thames do a lot of damage. We just don't have the luxury to take anyone else in this spot. Teheran is a pretty talented arm and he has shown the ability to work deep at home. The Brewers also strikeout the 4th most in the majors, so the upside is certainly there. Teheran is honestly not too tough to figure out. He's always been the same pitcher as he currently is, mightily struggling against lefties all the while dominating right-handers. So far in 2017, he's sporting a .369 wOBA against lefties and a .301 against righties.The Brewers should have at least 5 righties in the lineup, with the possibility of 7. If that's the case, Teheran makes a lot of sense in cash games (if you're playing). If the Brewers find a way to stack a bunch of lefties towards the top of the order, I would stay away. On such a weird slate, anything can really happen. Teheran has a lot of talent and sees one of the better match-ups. Let's keep it that simple on a slate with about 0 options.
With exactly 0 other options I trust, I'm not comfortable making a pitcher article dedicated to any of these 2/3 guys. If you want to pay up for upside, Pineda has it against the Rangers. Other than that, we're all in the same boat. I really don't think anybody is going to stand out as the day progresses, but we will see.
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.29 DK - 10.22
On a slate with no pitching to pay up for, you have no reason to punt catcher. We have a clear option in Gary Sanchez, who comes in with a higher raw projection than anyone. This is a guy who is going to hit 30 HR for a long time and is facing off with a very subpar pitcher. Nick Martinez is better against righties, but a career .331 wOBA is nothing to write home about. He has a good fastball, but it's been his only + pitch on the season. He now moves into Yankee Stadium and will have the honor of facing Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez. Sanchez has actually been a lot better against righties in his career, posting a .428 wOBA since his debut in 2015. Sanchez may be a bit expensive on DraftKings, but on FanDuel, I won't be fading him. He's a much better hitter than anyone at the position and I think people will get a little cute with some of the other options. Sanchez should come in around 25% owned, which is too low for me at this position.
Opponent - SEA (Miranda) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.42 DK - 8.72
If you're looking to pivot off of Gary Sanchez for whatever reason, you do have a few options. If you're looking to pay way down, just wait until lineups come out. It is Sunday and we will see some guys take a day off, resulting in cheap backups getting a start. If you're looking in the mid-range, let's take a look at Evan Gattis. He's been able to rest lately with Brian McCann taking a lot of the work against righties. Against lefties, Even Gattis sported a .364 wOBA. He hit 10 homers against them and ended up being one of the more productive DFS catchers on the season. He faces off with a young lefty in Ariel Miranda, who actually isn't too bad. He's only allowing a .315 wOBA to righties, but there is 1 big asterisk. He has managed to allow 15 homers to righties in less than 80 innings. Righties are squaring the ball up like crazy and you have to love a power guy like Gattis coming in. While Gattis is more of a tournament play on most nights, I don't think anyone should be categorized as anything on such a peculiar slate. If you can fit Gattis, he's fine in all formats.
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.3 DK - 9.36
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.83 DK - 9.94
The Red Sox are currently sitting at an implied team total of 6.11, which you have to absolutely love. When a team outside of Vegas is over 6 runs, you have to take notice in a big way. The Red Sox are at home in Fenway Park, where they have hit extremely well this season. Both Hanley and Moreland are big reasons why, sporting .360+ wOBA's each. Moreland has actually taken the cleanup spot recently against righties, so it'll be interesting to see how that develops as the season progresses. As for tonight, they face off with Parker Bridwell. We'll touch on him more a bit later, but is a righty with a whole lot of nothing. He's doubtful to last more than 4 innings here and we should see the Red Sox face off with a tired Angels bullpen pretty early on. Moreland is cheaper and in the 4 spot, so I'd expect him to be higher owned. For that reason, I prefer Hanley. He's great at using the green monster and has been taking advantage in Fenway all season long. Both of these guys are solid in both formats and they are on a team who will be drawing a lot of attention. The Red Sox do figure to be one of the higher owned teams, so keep that in mind.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 12.2 DK - 9.53
We did touch on Julio Teheran as one of our top starters. If you have exposure to one, you may want to limit your exposure to the other. Teheran does struggle against lefties a ton and has one so for a very long time. He's sported a .350 wOBA or higher against lefties for 5 straight seasons. There isn't too much else to say. He just stinks against lefties. We then have Eric Thames. Thames has obviously slowed down to human speed, but is still hitting the ball well. He's still holding a .400+ wOBA against righties and should be on his way to holding that number all season long. He's got as much power as anyone and can go hit 2 HR without blinking. The Brew Crew move into SunTrust Park, which has played as one of the top ballparks in 2017 for left-handed hitters. While the sample is too small to really draw any conclusions, it's looking like SunTrust is going to be a batters park.
Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @WSH
FD - 11.96 DK - 9.41
Even when Scott Feldman is having a "good" year, he's really not. He's still allowing a .350 wWOBA to lefties and hasn't been able to put them out consistently for many years now. This Nationals team is obviously one of the more dangerous and we saw what they can do just last night. While I'm not expecting Feldman to get blown up like that, I see him giving up a few runs to this lethal offense. Daniel Murphy should be in the 4 hole and is one of the top bats in the MLB against righties. He posted a .450+ wOBA last year and is on his way to posting another above .400. Nationals Park is a very average one, but Murphy likes hitting there and has good splits over the last couple years. While Murphy is going to cost you some cash, 2B is pretty unsteady and Murphy gives you a whole lot of upside, while also delivering plenty of a hypothetical floor. Don't shy away from a Nats offense that is projected to score over 5 runs at home. Now we'll take a look aft a guy who eserves some attention if you're paying down.
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @BOS
FD - 11.96 DK - 9.41
There aren't many guys you can rely on like Dustin Pedroia. He seems to always get something done, whether it be a hit or a few with some RBI's tacked on. He's the glue of this order and serves to hit 2nd here against a righty. Pedroia has been just as good against righties as he has been against lefties over the last 2 years, sporting a .357 wOBA. He's even better at Fenway Park, where righties are able to use the monster to their advantage. Parker Bridwell hasn't pitched much in the majors, but no signs show him getting much better. He was average at best in the minors, holding a 4.30 FIP for the majority of 2016. The Red Sox are going to get to this kid and I think Pedroia is a pretty safe bet. He's cheaper than Murphy and if you need to save funds, there is no problem with the pivot. The Red Sox are a team I'll want 3 or 4 of on each team, so Pedroia will see plenty of exposure to my lineups.
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Opponent - CIN (Feldman) Park - @WSH
FD - 12.3 DK - 11.07
Shortstop is definitely one of the uglier position spot tonight, so give me a little break. We don't have anyone obvious to target here, but we do have Trea Turner. When things go awry at the SS position, Turner is a name I like to look for. Even against an elite pitcher, Turner just has to get on 1st. Once he's on 1st, you have one of the fastest guys in the MLB on-base while the likes of Murphy, Zimmerman, and Harper are all hacking the wood. You can lock him into a steal if he gets on as I highly doubt Tucker Barnhart will be with 2 seconds of Turner at 2nd. Scott Feldman is definitely worse against lefties, but nothing to be scared of with the right side, holding a .303 wOBA that dates back a couple seasons. Aside from the speed, Turner has crazy power against righties. The ability to steal and hit HR"s gives Turner a ridiculous amount of upside, no matter the match-up. When you throw him in there with Scott Feldman, you have to love his chances of coming away with a very solid outing. Trea Turner is personally one of my top priorities on the slate.
Opponent - TEX (Martinez) Park - @NYY
FD - 10.5 DK - 8.32
Nick Martinez has a long history of struggling against lefties, so this is no surprise at all. He's held his legacy just fine so far in 2017, allowing righties to hold a .346 wOBA and .489 SLG against him. He now moves into Yankee Stadium, which is the home of the right-field short porch. Yankee Stadium is a top 3 ballpark for left-handers and Gregorious has definitely taken advantage while playing in the pinstripes. He's hit over 70% of his HR's at home and is hitting almost all of them against righties. Didi has posted a .336 wOBA against righties over the last 3 years, so he isn't anything special from a pure hitter POV. He's just a cheaper SS option with a ton of power, who happens to be facing a guy who is basically an AA level pitcher against righties. Trea Turner is obviously a much better option in all formats, but the ownership will also reflect that. Don't ignore Gregorious. As a matter of fact, never ignore any lefty against Nick Martinez. Especially one in Yankee Stadium.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @ARI
FD - 12.44 DK - 9.56
Lake Lamb at home in Chase Field against a righty. Surprise, surprise. Lamb is the best 3rd baseman in the MLB at home against righties, believe it or not. He's held an egregious .427 wOBA and has connected on 15 homers so far. He stays in Chase Field tonight to face off with Jeremy Hellickson. Oh boy. Hellickson, similar to Teheran, has been the same pitcher for a long time. Some unluckiness and variance have hindered his numbers against righties, but they will go back up. Hellickson has been atrocious against lefties over his career, posting a.361 wOBA over the past 3 full seasons. Jake Lamb is clearly elite and when he's playing at home, you have to try to fit him in. He was on everybodies board last night and you didn't cash without him. I could see another scenario like that tonight. Lamb is clearly the top option at the position.
Opponent - ATL (Teheran) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.04 DK - 7.81
we're going to pick on a guy in Julio Teheran again that we did look at as a pitcher. However, this is a guy who we know exactly who he is. He is horrible against lefties and great against righties. He could easily give up 1 or 2 HR to Thames/Shaw and then dominate the rest of the order. With that being said, these Brewers lefties are in very good spots and shouldn't be any higher than 8% owned. Shaw has hit righties well for a long time now, but is just now getting the recognition he deserves. So far in 2017, he's holding a .388 wOBA to match his nasty peripherals. He hits the ball hard a ton against righties and doesn't have many "bad" at-bats. Shaw is priced up a bit, but who cares. He gives you 2 HR upside at a price you should look to take advantage of. There is no pitching to pay up for and with so many offenses on the slate with high expected runs, you can make it fit. If Lamb doesn't get the job done for you, Travis Shaw is cheaper with identical upside.
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.95 DK - 12.23
Opponent - LAA (Bridwell) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.26 DK - 9.92
With the dog days of summer approaching us, we have started to see the over/under on a lot of these games rise. That's because of the increased temperature around the county, helping balls fly a bit more. That's even more exaggerated during the day, when the ball flies. Both Mookie Betts and Benintendi were in play last night, but underwhelmed for the most park. They will look to bounce back tonight against Parker Bridwell, who is a very odd pitcher to analyze. He's been pretty bad in the minors and I don't see why he got the call to the majors. While in the majors, Bridwell has allowed a near .500 wOBA to righties. They are hitting the ball hard almost every time and in Fenway Park, that's bad news. Both Mookie Betts and Benintendi have held .370+ wOBA's against righties, along with more than enough power from small OF's. Betts is actually very similarly priced to Benintendi here, so we may see some weird ownership on one of them. If I had to go ith 1, it's definitely Betts. He has power and speed upside like few others and isn't priced like it.
Opponent - CHW (Holland) Park - @CHW
FD - 12.35 DK - 9.37
We have figured out a way to ignore these Athletics up until now, which may not be a good move. Even with a team like the A's that lack much appeal, you have to give them attention against Derek Holland. Holand is a special breed of bad against righties, already allowing an astounding 16 home runs in just over 60 innings. Absolutely insane. He hosts the A's in Guaranteed Rate Field, which comes in around the top 7 for righty power. Holland has also allowed a .389 wOBA to righties, so it's not just the HR's. Khris Davis is a very dangerous hitter and we all know it. He already has 19 home runs on the season and will be looking to make it 20 here. He posted a .367 wOBA against lefties in 2016, but you might want to give that an uptick with the ballpark boost. Davis is always one of the bigger threats to go deep on any given slate. Today, he should go under-looked and has just as great of a shot as any.
Opponent - PHI (Hellickson) Park - @ARI
FD - 13.19 DK - 10.63
We finish off the duo of Jake Lamb and David Peralta here in the OF. Against righties, these are 2 guys who should be right on your radar. Peralta and Lamb are actually pretty similar against righties, at least numbers wise. They are in Chase Field, which is the 2nd best environment for hitting outside of Coors Field. We touched on Jeremy Hellickson and there isn't too much to look at. There is a lot of variance in his 2017 numbers so far and they will start to even out very soon. Chase Field is usually a pretty good medicine for pitchers getting lucky. Peralta has been extremely solid against righties this season, sporting an elite .368 wOBA and a 37% hard contact rate. He's just as good as Jake Lamb at 3B and will be much lesser owned. This is a slate without anywhere to pay up at pitching, so you can definitely have some fun elsewhere with your funds. It's definitely going to throw some wrinkles into this slate.
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