Kyle Busch drives during the NASCAR Sprint Cup auto race, Sunday, Nov. 20, 2016, in Homestead, Fla. (AP Photo/Terry Renna)
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Infineon Raceway - Sonoma, CA
Track - 2.52 Mile Road Course
This week the Monster Energy Cup Series heads to Sonoma, California for the first of two road-course races on the schedule. They are both very unique setups and for a closer look at Infineon Raceway check out Parker Kligerman on the iRacing Simulator go over a lap here.
With just 110 laps in the race, it will really limit the dominator potential of a driver especially considering the new strategies in place with stage racing in 2017. More important this week will be finishing position and place differential. It is very tough to come from too far back and finish Top as we have only seen seven drivers who started outside of 20th finish Top 10 in the last six races but Top 15's are definitely in play for those drivers. Every point will matter this week.
Let's dig in and take a look at some of the race trends and drivers who have succeeded here and on road courses in general. I will then go over a few of my top picks for the week and then post a YouTube video later on Saturday going over my top picks with all practice and qualifying info entered into the sheet.
Tony Stewart won the race here last year which ended up being his final win of his career. Looking at the active drivers over the last two years, Kyle Busch has the other win(2015) but there are six drivers who have been somewhat dominant here finishing both races inside the Top 10. Kurt Busch has qualified the best and has also led the most laps but Kevin Harvick and Kasey Kahne stand out when looking at place differential as both of them have an average start outside of 20th and an average finish better than 10th.
Looking at the career numbers, no one is happier that Jeff Gordon(5 career wins at Sonoma) and Tony Stewart(3 career wins at Sonoma) are retired than Clint Bowyer. He has one career win here, six Top 5's and eight Top 10 finishes with an impressive series leading 11.5 average finish. No only is Tony not driving anymore, but Clint now gets to drive the #14 car that won the last race here. Ryan Newman has yet to win here at Sonoma but has been very consistent with seven Top 10's in 15 races with a 12.3 average finish. Jimmie Johnson has just one career win here but leads all active drivers with nine Top 10 finishes. Kurt Busch also has one career finish here but leads all active drivers with 5+ races in average starting position which has resulted in a series leading 197 laps led.
No one has been anywhere close to as successful on the two road courses over the past two years than Joey Logano. He has only led nine laps in four races but his last four finishes have been 5th at Sonoma, win at Watkins Glen, 3rd at Sonoma, and 2nd at Watkins Glen last August. Kyle Busch has been the closest to Logano with a 4.0 average finish with four straight Top 10 finishes at the Road Courses. Kurt Busch has also been good at the road courses with three Top 10's in his last four races with a 7.0 average finish. Dale Earnhardt Jr. hasn't been great on the road courses but has been consistent with three 11th place finishes and a 7th. He would only be in play for me if he were to qualify back in the field where he could pick up some place differential. Denny Hamlin is just outside the Top 5 on this list due to his poor road course showing in 2015 but last season finished runner-up here at Sonoma and then won the race at Watkins Glen. Keep an eye on his practice speeds and qualifying position.
Kyle Busch ($10,200) - I really feel like Kyle is going to break through for that first win of the season real soon and I will ride the consistency until he does. He comes in hot, has good track history, not only here but at both courses, and improved through practice with the 9th and 2nd fastest speeds. His value will go way up if he fails to qualify inside the Top 5 this week which would be the first time in six races.
Clint Bowyer ($9,400) - Both he and A.J. Allmendinger saw huge salary jumps this week of over $2K and it creates an interesting scenario this week. Allmendinger has, at least in the past, been known as a road course ringer and should soak up a ton of ownership in the $9K range this week. I do think Bowyer will be popular as well but has also been the much better driver here at Sonoma and at road courses in general. Oh ya, and he is now in Tony Stewart's #14 car which won the last race here.
Ryan Newman ($7,900) - My favorite value play this week. To be fair he did take a $700 salary increase this week but is still under $8K. He hasn't been good at Watkins Glen but has been very consistent here at Sonoma with finishes of 8th last year and 9th the year before. They struggled off the truck posting the 24th fastest time but did improve in practice two ranking 18th. Hopefully, that translates to a qualifying position that is favorable for some place differential value.
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Hey Chris thanks for all the input and info man, So question when your building your lineups do you build them based on place diff or dominator points I would think it depends a lot on the track and how difficult it is as far as racers being able to pass other racers but for instance Danica Patrick qualified 6th is that someone you think could stay in the top 10 on a track like this also Chris Buescher qualified I think 9th is he also someone on your radar I mean with them both being so cheap are they worth the risk of having the place diff point deduction
It is very dependant on the track and especially how many laps are being run. Only 110 this week and with the new stages and strategies that it brings to teams to get track position we could easily see four or five drivers with 20 laps led. If I am rostering someone starting inside Top 10 with minimal place diff upside I want it to be a driver I am confident will finish there and neither of those two aren't on the list. I would rather find a way to pay up a tick more for Bayne starting 25th.
Thanks for reading and the kind words. Good luck this week.
Good Question Cody!
Always good to read. Thanks for taking the time to publish your hard work.