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Opponent - BAL (Jimenez) Park - @TB
FD - 38.6 DK - 25.45
With teams turning their rotations over and a full 15 game slate tonight, we get a couple elite pitchers right at the top. The system slightly favors Strasburg but I am going to be making my case for Archer as the top pitcher on the slate. You get a slight discount on FanDuel and on DraftKings you will likely get an ownership discount and, in my opinion, get the same and possibly more upside. Archer is striking out almost a full batter more per nine this season and the more I look at the matchup the more I like it. The biggest knock on Archer has been his walks(2.8 BB/9) but good news for him the Orioles walk the less than just two teams against right-handed pitching and strike out 22.9% of the time(9th most). Archer has also shown some dramatic splits this season as he has struggled with left-handed batters(.335 wOBA against) but has dominated right-handed bats(.249 wOBA against) and the Orioles are still without the services of their best lefty in Crush Davis. While this does take away a few strikeouts there are enough to go around throughout the lineup to make Archer safe in all formats.
Opponent - CIN (Castillo) Park - @WSH
FD - 40.7 DK - 26.76
The system favors Strasburg and it makes sense as the Nationals are huge early favorites and I honestly rank them 1A and 1B tonight. Both have elite strikeout upside facing teams with K rate's over 20% vs. right-handed pitching but the reason I rank Strasburg slightly behind Archer is the fact the Reds have been Top 10 offense through two and a half months of the season. One could also make the case that Strasburg has had the easier road facing the Phillies, Braves, Padres and other NL opponents but we shouldn't worry too much as he is an elite pitcher. He has held opponents to two earned runs or less nine times in his 14 starts and has only allowed more than three earned runs twice. He also gets a boost in win expectation with the #1 offense in the league at his back. I prefer Archer but the slightest of margins and wouldn't fault you for going either way and in GPP's I will even try to fit both on DraftKings in a few lineups.
Opponent - KC (Junis) Park - @KC
FD - 27.41 DK - 18.27
When it comes to the SP2 spot tonight on DraftKings, there are a few spots I am going to be monitoring(Corbin, Nelson, Porcello) but for now, I am looking at you James Anthony Happ. He went on the disabled list in mid-April with elbow inflammation and spent nearly a month and a half there rehabbing. He was a little rusty out of the gates upon his return at the end of May/early June as he gave up seven earned runs in just 9.1 innings pitcher with a 7:6 strikeout to walk ratio. He has looked much better in his last two starts where he has allowed just three earned runs in 12.2 innings with a 17:1 strikeout to walk ratio as he appears to be in 2016 form again. Tonight he faces a Royals team that not only ranks in the bottom third in hitting over the last seven days but also ranks in the bottom third against left-handed pitching for the season. If Happ can continue to limit the walks and get deeper into games he is more than worth the $8K price tag.
Opponent - SD (Perdomo) Park - @SD
FD - 9.48 DK - 7.14
Avila sat out of the Tigers lineup on Tuesday and Wednesday but made a pinch-hit appearance in both and is currently in the starting lineup Thursday night to close the series out with the Mariners. This is great news as he comes at somewhat of a discounted price given his spot in the lineup and tremendous numbers against right-handed pitching this season. Through 46 games and 164 plate appearances, Avila has put up a .455 wOBA, 189 wRC+, and absurd 60% hard contact rate against righties. The game has a low total to open but we should see an increase in the Tigers implied runs in the morning given they are facing Luis Perdomo and his 4.97 ERA and 20.9% HR/FB rate. Avila is safe as a one-off value play in cash games or as a part of a somewhat sneaky Tigers stack.
Opponent - KC (Junis) Park - @KC
FD - 10.76 DK - 8.16
Until Martin's price adjust on FanDuel or until he moved back down the lineup he is a great punt play at the catcher position, especially tonight with two elite pitchers to choose from. He was moved up into the two-hole on Thursday and while the Jays got beat down 11-4, Martin picked up two hits with a run and a RBI and did not strike out. The Jays get a plus matchup on Friday as they open a series against the Royals who will be throwing rookie Jakob Junis to the mound for his fifth career start. He has struggled mightily in his first four starts allowing 27 hits and 14 earned runs in just 20.2 innings pitched while allowing a 45% hard contact rate against.
Also Consider: Yan Gomes(very nice splits vs. left-handed pitching)
Opponent - MIN (Mejia) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.82 DK - 9.58
His price on DraftKings has reached a new level as it is now over $5K making him a GPP only play but his salary on FanDuel has once again dipped below $3K making him a safe option in all formats. Like I mentioned yesterday, Edwin has heated right up in June hitting .339 with seven home runs, 17 RBI and 20 runs scored and has helped the Indians in winning seven of their last eight games(currently up 5-2 on Thursday night) and climbing back to the top of the Central Division. Unlike his time with the Jays, EE is crushing left-handed pitching with the Indians(.397 wOBA, 149 wRC+) and gets to face one of the worst pitchers on the slate tonight in Adalberto Mejia. The rookie is off to a troubling starting walking almost five batters per nine and he has also given up multiple home runs in four of his nine starts and sits with an 18.4% HR/FB rate.
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @BOS
FD - 12.05 DK - 9.17
The Red Sox batters make great options tonight as they currently sit with the highest implied run total on the slate at almost six tonight. If you are loading up at pitching tonight and need some value or just looking for an ownership pivot, Moreland tops the list as he has routinely been hitting out of the cleanup spot and comes at a discount price compared to the bats around him. He also has the splits working in his favor from almost every angle. He has been much better against right-handed pitchers with a .353 wOBA and 116 wRC+ which includes all nine of his home runs and Meyer has also struggled more against lefties giving up a wOBA 48 points higher than to righties. Moreland isn't the most consistent option but provides just enough upside with projected low ownership that he makes a nice play in all formats.
Also Consider: Anthony Rizzo(GPP only with high price)
Opponent - HOU (Musgrove) Park - @SEA
FD - 11.63 DK - 8.94
His price has remained consistent in the low $3K range on FanDuel but has finally started trending down on DraftKings making him the 15th most expensive option. This is great value for Cano who brings consistency and power to the table with a .281/.341/.458 slash line and 11 home runs. Cano has also been much better vs. right-handed pitching and gets to face a pitcher in Joe Musgrove who got beat up by the Red Sox for five earned runs his last start and enters tonight with a 5.09 ERA and 4.58 xFIP. Cano is in a great spot to get back on track after a recent slump and should be considered in all formats.
Opponent - CHW (Pelfrey) Park - @CHW
FD - 10.26 DK - 7.95
While I prefer Cano for $300 more on DraftKings, I absolutely love the $700 discount on FanDuel and will have a lot of Jed Lowrie tonight. It is a very inviting play if you are paying up for one of the big two pitchers tonight. Lowrie hits in the three-hole for the A's and is enjoying his best season with the team since his first back in 2013. He is a switch hitter who makes his hay from the left side of the plate as he sits with a .376 wOBA and 140 wRC+ vs. right-handed pitching in 2017. He gets the pleasure of facing Mike Pelfrey tonight who is more than due for some regression as he is striking out just over five batters per nine and generating a low 6% swinging strike rate. Look for the scrappy A's to get to him early and often.
Also Consider: Eric Sogard(10-game hitting streak with six multi-hit efforts)
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Opponent - MIN (Mejia) Park - @CLE
FD - 12.42 DK - 10.02
For those rostering Lindor this season, you may have noticed a dip in consistency but it appears a lot of it is due to some bad luck as he is running a BABIP 65 points lower than his career average. The good news is that he has seen a huge uptick in the power numbers this season and has been much better vs. left-handed pitching with a .364 wOBA and 126 wRC+.
Above is a clip from yesterday's write-up on Lindor and even though the price has gone up $200 on both sites, he is still a nice value facing another left-handed pitcher. Like I mentioned with EE above, Mejia has struggled in his first nine starts with a 5.53 ERA, 5.30 xFIP and has given up multiple home runs in four of his nine starts.The Indians make a great stacking option once again as they are red hot winning eight of their last nine games scoring an average of 7.5 runs per game.
Opponent - PHI (Leiter) Park - @ARI
FD - 7.92 DK - 6.65
Owings only picked up one hit yesterday but is was a big one that left the yard for a three-run homer in a 10-3 route of the Rockies. He has now picked up at least one hit in eight straight and 11 of his last 12 games providing us with a high floor and enough consistency to be considered in cash games with upside for GPP's as well. The Diamondbacks, like the Indians, have been red hot lately winning nine of their last 10 and 12 of their last 14 games while scoring an average of 7.5 runs per game. Owings provides a cheaper option from the team and is safe in all formats tonight facing a Phillies rookie making his first career start.
Also Consider: Troy Tulowitzki(GPP only but super cheap punt price)
Opponent - PHI (Leiter) Park - @ARI
FD - 9.98 DK - 7.67
The Diamondbacks projections probably seem a little low right now. When I started the article the Phillies had no projected starter but with the news Mark Leiter has been recalled to make his first career start, I expect the implied runs to go up a sizeable amount giving a boost to the entire D-Backs lineup. If you can afford him, Jake Lamb makes an elite play at the position tonight with huge upside. He has taken his game to a new level in 2017 after posting a career-high 29 home runs in 2016. He is still striking out at around a 25% rate but has brought the average up close to 40 points. He still struggles against southpaws but has absolutely destroyed right-handed pitching with a .432 wOBA, 164 wRC+, and 14 home runs. He has slightly higher value on FanDuel as the fourth most expensive option tonight.
Opponent - MIA (Urena) Park - @MIA
FD - 12.54 DK - 9.66
While Lamb is the clear play on FanDuel in the same price range, Bryant is the clear play from a PTS/$ standpoint on DraftKings at a $600 discount. The reigning MVP has seen a drop off in his average and run production this season but a lot of the runs can be contributed to the struggling Cubs offense as a whole. The average can be attributed to some bad luck as he is currently running a BABIP 49 points lower than his career mark and he has even shown more patience at the plate as he has increased his walk rate by 5% in 2017. Either way, he is an elite player that comes at a bargain and provides big upside on any given night.
Opponent - COL (Freeland) Park - @LAD
FD - 9.7 DK - 7.62
Forsythe is another player I wrote about yesterday and with the salary only going up $100 on both sites, I will be on him again tonight as a value play at shortstop. He hit leadoff last night vs. lefty Steven Matz and while he didn't contribute much, could very well be back in that spot Friday against another southpaw in Kyle Freeland. Take advantage of Forsythe's value as he is really only in play vs. a lefty as he strikes out over 12% less and carries an elite .439 wOBA and 178 wRC+ into tonight's matchup. The savings make it even easier to load up at the pitcher position tonight.
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @BOS
FD - 14.64 DK - 11.98
Opponent - LAA (Meyer) Park - @BOS
FD - 12 DK - 9.71
The Red Sox return home after alternating wins and losses on their eight-game road trip and lead the way from an implied run standpoint but nearly a full half run. Whenever we see these kind of totals it pushes Betts and Benintendi way up the food chain from a PTS/$ standpoint in the projections. After hovering around the $5K range on DraftKings, Benny has leveled off in the low $4K range which makes him in play in all formats, especially if he is back in the two-hole tonight. The projection system and lineup optimizer have had a thing for Mookie Betts all season and for good reason, he provides elite upside in almost every offensive category. He is coming off a monster season and while is not likely to duplicate those numbers he should be able to get real close. He has increased his walk rate almost 4% while reducing the strikeouts by around 2% and like a few other players I mentioned, is due for some regression. He is running a BABIP of .265 which is 57 points lower than last season and 44 points lower than his career average. Additionally, he continues to steal bases(11) in 2017 and has already hit 12 home runs. You can use either of these Red Sox outfielders as one-off cash game plays or as a part of a top of the order team stack.
Opponent - SF (Blach) Park - @SF
FD - 10.92 DK - 8.4
Cespedes stands out as a great play in the outfield for a few reasons tonight. First of all, he has seen his salary on both sites come down into the value range which is great news considering the huge upside he provides. He has been hampered by injuries all season and limited to 29 games but has been near elite when in the lineup. He is currently slashing .309/.387/.629 with a eight home runs, 16 RBI and 17 runs scored. The Mets are a much better team when he is playing. The second thing that stands out is the matchup as Cespedes has destroyed left-handed pitching to the tune of a .419 woBA and 164 wRC+ and now faces young Ty Blach of the Giants. He has done a fairly good job keeping the ball in the park(8.6% HR/FB rate) but is striking out just over four batters per nine and has given up a wOBA 110 points higher to right-handed batters.
Also Consider: Shin-soo Choo and Nomar Mazara(facing Tanaka who has given up 5+ ER in 5 of his last 7 starts)
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