Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/22/17

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Pitcher

Early Slate

Carlos Martinez FD 10300 DK 13500
Opponent - PHI (Nola) Park - @PHI
FD - 36.33 DK - 24.05

Things are pretty straight forward on the early slate from a pitching standpoint even though Carlos Martinez has reached a season high salary on both sites. With all the SP2 options on DraftKings coming in under $9.5K and so many value options at other positions, I don't think there will be a problem getting Martinez in your lineups. In his fifth season in the big leagues, he has taken his strikeout rate to another level which is currently sitting at 10.2 K/9 thanks to his wipeout slider that is creating a 19.1% swinging strike rate. He has held opponents to one earned run or less in three of his last four starts including a dominating complete game shutout with 11 strikeouts vs. these very Phillies. Martinez and the Cards go on the road to Philly this time around but I don't think it makes much of a difference.

Also Consider: David Paulino vs. OAK

Main Slate

Luis Severino FD 9800 DK 12300
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @NYY
FD - 34.12 DK - 22.49

It is a similar story on the main slate tonight with Severino reaching a season-high salary on DraftKings and $100 off on FanDuel. Severino has also posted very similar numbers as Martinez with his 2.99 ERA, 3.14 xFIP, 10.0 K/9 rate and is actually walking over a half batter per nine less and allowing a hard contact rate under 30%. Before his last start where he let us down against the A's, he had limited opponents to two earned runs or less in five straight starts with 7+ strikeouts in each. The Yankees and Severino now get to face the Angels who are dealing with life without Mike Trout for a little while longer and currently rank 26th in wOBA(.301) and 21st in wRC+(93) vs. right-handed pitching. The only possible limit to his upside tonight is the fact the Angels don't strike out very much. If this worries you, stay tuned for my pitcher's article which will be looking at two other options for the main slate tonight.

 

Catcher

Early Slate

Russell Martin FD 2500 DK 4200
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 9.84 DK - 7.46

With this news released yesterday, we have to take advantage, especially on FanDuel where he is sitting in the mid $2K range. Martin has struggled this season with a low .218 average but is still getting on base at an elite clip(.376 OBP) and has continued to provide some power upside with four home runs since May 29 and seven for the season. It's more about using him as a salary relief option with opportunity hitting second and using the savings to pay up for Carlos Martinez and a few big bats.

Also Consider: Manny Pina (MIL)

 
Main Slate

Buster Posey FD 3300 DK 4000
Opponent - ATL (Garcia) Park - @ATL
FD - 10.96 DK - 8.45

On the main slate, I will turn to probably the best hitting catcher in the game today. He is even currently posting career-high numbers when looking at average, on-base percentage, and very close in wOBA and wRC+. The most impressive part about it is that he is posting these numbers on one of the worst offenses in baseball(28th in runs) with minimal support around him and from the demanding catcher position. Because of the team around him, I usually avoid him for a punt option with upside but tonight is one of those opportunities we have to take advantage of as he is facing a mediocre southpaw. Posey is currently hitting .377 vs. lefties with an elite .439 wOBA and 177 wRC+ and for you BvP truthers, he has eight hits in 18 at-bats vs. Garcia with just two strikeouts. It is safe to pay up for Posey in all formats tonight.

Also Consider: Willson Contreras (CHC)

First Base

Early Slate
Jose Abreu FD 3800 DK 4500
Opponent - MIN (Turley) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.9 DK - 9.12

Anytime the White Sox face a southpaw you are going to want a piece of the action. This is especially true today as they get an elite matchup vs. one of the worst pitchers on the day. Nik Turley has made his living in the minor leagues over the last nine years before getting his chance in the big leagues and it has been a very rough start. He has given up 12 earned runs over 8.2 innings in his first two starts with a 42% hard contact rate against. With Paul Goldschmidt approaching $6k on both sites in a Coors matchup, it makes sense to pivot down to Abreu who comes at a discount and destroys left-handed pitching to the tune of a .461 wOBA and 199 wRC+.

Also Consider: Eric Thames (MIL)

Main Slate

Edwin Encarnacion FD 4200 DK 5400
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 12.08 DK - 9.02

If you haven't been walking the parrot in the month of June you are just doing it wrong. Like clockwork, Edwin has caught fire after a slow start and is currently slashing .370/.493/.815 in the month of June with seven home runs, 17 RBI, and 20 runs scored. I mentioned in one of my article's last week that Edwin was known in Toronto for his reverse splits and great numbers vs. right-handed pitching but he has flipped a 180 this year with a very impressive .401 wOBA and 152 wRC+ vs. southpaws. He will be facing a struggling Wade Miley who has given up 15 earned runs in his last three starts and has given up a wOBA over 100 points higher to right-handed batters. His best value is on FanDuel where he comes at $600 discount off Anthony Rizzo.

Also Consider: Miguel Cabrera (DET)

Second Base

Early Slate

Josh Harrison FD 3200 DK 3800
Opponent - MIL (Anderson) Park - @MIL
FD - 9.18 DK - 7.63

Second base is another spot I like to pay down and find value at when rostering the high-end pitchers. Even if you are not rostering Carlos Martinez, Harrison makes an excellent play who has been very consistent lately. He is currently 1 for 2 with a RBI and a steal on Wednesday night and has a high .377 wOBA and 135 wRC+ in the month of June. The matchup isn't that great on paper as Chase Anderson has been very serviceable with a 2.92 ERA and slightly above average 8.3 K/9 rate but he has had his struggles with right-handed batters giving up a wOBA 37 points higher. It is much more about the value you get in the hot Pirates bats as they look to sweep the series in Milwaukee this afternoon.

Also Consider:  Brandon Drury (ARI)

Main Slate

Starlin Castro FD 3200 DK 4500
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @NYY
FD - 11.01 DK - 8.61

The Yankees are going to be popular once again tonight and Castro provides some cheaper exposure considering both Judge and Sanchez are over $5K on DraftKings and $4K on FanDuel. His value is even higher on FanDuel where even Aaron Hicks and Matt Holliday are more expensive. Castro is currently in the middle of another promising season after breaking out in 2016 with 21 home runs and 70 RBI. He is on pace to break those numbers in 2017 as he has already hit 12 long balls with 51 runs scored and entered Wednesday night with a career-high .322 average. Tonight he gets a plus matchup vs. Jesse Chavez who is nothing more than just an average arm with his 4.85 ERA, 4.67 xFIP and 18.9% HR/FB rate. The best part is Castro has hit right-handed pitching much better with a .378 wOBA  137 wRC+. He is safe in cash games as a one-off play or as a part of a high upside Yankee stack.

Also Consider: Brandon Phillips (ATL)

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Shortstop

Early Slate

Eduardo Escobar FD 3300 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Quintana) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.14 DK - 7.98

While I prefer the White Sox bats in this matchup of lefty vs. lefty matchup, I think we can target both sides today. Whether it be through a game stack or a plucking a couple one-off in great spots, Eduardo Escobar is one of the first names to pop off the sheet. While he has been below average vs. righties this season, he has led the Twins in hitting vs. southpaws with a .443 wOBA and 180 wRC+. His value has also gone up recently with the move up to the two-hole in the lineup and he comes into today's action with hits in eight straight and nine of his last 10 games. At a price under $4K on both sites, Escobar is a nice play in all formats.

 Also Consider: Chris Owings (ARI)

Main Slate

Francisco Lindor FD 3400 DK 4600
Opponent - BAL (Miley) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.7 DK - 9.44

It is very close at the top tonight when looking at raw points from the shortstop position. Corey Seager and Francisco Lindor are neck and neck but the system favors Lindor by a hair from a PTS/$ standpoint due to the discount on both sites. A discount we could very well need if we are wanting to spend up for the over priced Luis Severino, at least on DraftKings. For those rostering Lindor this season, you may have noticed a dip in consistency but it appears a lot of it is due to some bad luck as he is running a BABIP 65 points lower than his career average. The good news is that he has seen a huge uptick in the power numbers this season and has been much better vs. left-handed pitching with a .364 wOBA and 126 wRC+.

Also Consider: Javier Baez (CHC)

Third Base

Early Slate
Josh Donaldson FD 3900 DK 4900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 15.17 DK - 11.44

The system is going back to the well once again with Donaldson on the early slate as he sits as the highest projected player on the slate from a raw point and PTS/$ perspective. The downside is that he hasn't hit a home run in eight games but has been consistent overall since returning from the disabled list with a .398 wOBA and 149 wRC+ with six home runs and 13 RBI. He and the Jays are in a great spot this afternoon facing a struggling Martin Perez who doesn't strike out many batters(6.8 K/9) and has given up four or more earned runs in three of his last four starts and is walking over 3.5 batters per nine innings. Donaldson will move down to the three-hole with Bautista taking over the leadoff role today and Russel Martin jumping up to the two-hole. This gives Donaldson more opportunity to drive in runs and with his elite OBP, he also has run-scoring upside with Smoak and Morales hitting behind him. Play Donaldson with confidence in all formats.

Also Consider: Miguel Sano

 
Main Slate

Logan Forsythe FD 2500 DK 3300
Opponent - NYM (Matz) Park - @LAD
FD - 10.47 DK - 8.22

On the main slate, you can pay up for Ramirez, Bryant or Machado or take the value route. I choose the latter, at least for cash games, as Logan Forsythe provides excellent PTS/$ value should he show up in the top half of the Dodgers lineup tonight. He is starting to heat up after a terrible start to the season and now has hits in four straight including two multi-hit games and a home run. For his career, Forsythe has always hit left-handed pitching better and nothing has changed this season as he sits with a .439 wOBA and 177 wRC+ against southpaws. Tonight he faces a struggling Steven Matz who is just two games into his season and has given up five earned runs(3 HR) in 14 innings pitched striking out just six batters. Take advantage of the value and the matchup and load up at other positions.

Also Consider: Manny Machado (BAL)

Outfield

Early Slate

Avisail Garcia FD 3600 DK 3900
Opponent - MIN (Turley) Park - @MIN
FD - 10.51 DK - 8.32

I won't be doing a stacks article for the early slate today but if I was the White Sox would be right at the top fo the list. Like I mentioned with Abreu, they lead all of baseball in wOBA and wRC+ against left-handed pitching and get an elite matchup vs. gas can Nik Turley. While Abreu has been elite vs. southpaws and provided more power, it has been Avisail Garcia who has been even more consistent leading the team with a .470 wOBA and 199 wRC+. Garcia has also been red-hot in the month of June with hits in all but three games with eight multi-hit efforts and three home runs. Another player with a high floor and a ton of upside who comes at a sub $4K price on both sites.

Jose Bautista FD 3800 DK 3900
Opponent - TEX (Perez) Park - @TEX
FD - 13.37 DK - 10

Manager John Gibbons has made some drastic changes to his lineup over the past couple of days including moving slugger Jose Bautista back up to the leadoff spot. It is a move they tried last season when Bautista was slumping like he is now(.129 average in June) and while it didn't prove to help fix the average it gave him more opportunities per game to hit one out and that is what Joey Bats does best. Even with a salary under $4K on both sites, he is still just a GPP play as he has struggled more against left-handed pitching since the start of the 2015 season.

Also Consider: Carlos Gonzalez (COL)

Main Slate

Aaron Judge FD 4800 DK 5700
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.45 DK - 10.35
Aaron Hicks FD 3400 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Chavez) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.1 DK - 9.68

If you have read the articles on DFSR or checked the projections and optimized lineups you have probably noticed the systems love for the Yankees. It may have something to do with the fact they are a top five offense in overall run production and sit first or second in wOBA(.357), wRC+(122), and ISO(.204) vs. right-handed pitching. It starts right at the top with Aaron Judge who arguably the top overall play on the slate and this is not the first time he has been mentioned with high praise. He leads the league in home runs(24), wOBA(.468) and wRC+(199) and is second in runs scored(61) and eighth in RBI(54). He is a gentle giant that can single-handedly win you a GPP and that is where he fits best with his high salary. If you are looking to stick with the pinstripes but need some additional salary relief, you can roll out Aaron Hicks who has taken over the two-hole in the lineup since June 7 and has picked up hits in eight of those 10 games. He is a switch hitter with almost identical numbers from both sides and provides some power with 10 home runs coming into tonight.

Also Consider: Nelson Cruz(elite matchup vs. a left-handed pitcher), Yasiel Puig(hits in 7 of his last 10 with 5 multi-hit efforts)
 

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