Daily Fantasy MLB Baseball Picks for FanDuel and DraftKings - 6/21/17

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Pitcher

Jeff Samardzija FD 8700 DK 9400
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 35.54 DK - 23.59

Pitching is absolutely horrible tonight. If you're playing on the early slate, you have the luxury of rostering Max Scherzer. He's the clear top option on the slate and you can almost chalk in close to 7 dominant innings. As for the late slate, things are far more uncertain. Personally, I'll be very careful with cash games. There isn't a single pitcher I fully trust and would be hesitant to lay a significant amount of my bankroll on a risky arm. The best of the bunch comes in the form of an ex-ND wide receiver, Jeff Samardzija. Samardzija has been good this year as a whole, but his last 2 starts have left a lot to be desired. Let's hope that drives away some ownership, but I doubt it as there isn't anyone else who has been dominating as an alternative. He has struggled a bit against lefties with a .347 wOBA, but a .333 BABIP has a little to do with it. To be clear, Samardzija is not an elite pitcher. He's a slightly above-average arm who is good at eating innings and limiting run production. He enters into SunTrust Park to face an offense who rank 21st against righties and 28th since Freddie Freeman was injured. They lack any power and the ability to string together runs is gone. While I highly doubt Samardzija is going to leave with a clean slate, he is the safest guy to get a win and a quality start.

Jose Berrios FD 9500 DK 11400
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 31.3 DK - 20.75

On a typical slate, Jose Berrios is far too expensive here. He simply isn't worth his price and you are paying up for the talent. With that being said, there is an argument for just paying up and taking the safe points. Berrios was a top 5 prospect in baseball for a few years and it looks like the scouts were right. He's simply dominating so far on the season and has struggled in just 1 start. He's holding a .288 wOBA against lefties and a .234 against righties. He's striking out almost 9 batters per 9 innings and is holding a low HR/9 of 0.81. The Twins host the White Sox tonight and are facing off against Dylan Holmberg, who we will talk plenty about. The point is that the Twins are going to score and the win will be there for Berrios if he can get through 5 quality innings. He's gone at least 6 innings in every start outside of 1, in which he went 5. Berrios is just 23 years old, but has the poise of a veteran and the stuff of an ace. With that all being said, he's still over-priced and not a guy you would consider on most slates. Keep that in mind.

Early - Max Scherzer

Catcher

Buster Posey FD 3500 DK 4200
Opponent - ATL (Newcomb) Park - @ATL
FD - 11.16 DK - 8.59

Buster Posey has been really quiet this year, but when you look at his numbers, I don't know why. He's batting .341 with a ridiculous .439 wOBA against left-handers. Posey is still batting Gary Sanchez as the best hitting catcher in baseball and against lefties, it's still Posey. He has been elite against them for about 10 years now and is obviously not slowing down anytime soon. He faces off with Sean Newcomb, a prospect with a bit of potential. he did walk over 3 batters per 9 innings in the minors and will have a lot of trouble with control as some more starts play out. I think some will expect Newcomb to be some kind of accurate, high-end prospect without any floor. That's not true. This is a guy who had multiple games in the minors where he couldn't find his way out of the 3rd inning due to control, or the lack of it. When you move into the majors, those numbers typically jump. Regression is coming for Newcomb and SunTrust Park has been playing well for hitters. Posey is the top option in cash games and is holding his head strong with Sanchez in GPP's.

Gary Sanchez FD 3800 DK 4900
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.8 DK - 9.84

The Yankees are going to be one of the more popular teams on the slate and rightfully so. They are the only team with an implied run total over 6 and face likely the worst pitcher on the entire slate. Ricky Nolasco is absolutely horrible and he can get neither righties or lefties out. So far in 2017, Nolasco has sported a .368 wOBA against righties. He's also given up an insane 13 homers in just 39 innings. I don't have any idea why Nolasco is still pitching, but he's got a starting role here against one of the best offenses in baseball. Gary Sanchez is the best hitting catcher in the league against righties and always has the most upside. Since entering the league, Sanchez has posted an astronomical .426 wOBA against right-handers. Catcher is a spot to pay up for and I'll either be going Posey or Sanchez. Take your pick.

Early - Willson Contreras

First Base

Matt Holliday FD 3700 DK 4400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.97 DK - 9.8

There's a whole lot to like about the Yankees tonight. We just touched on Gary Sanchez, so you know how bad Ricky Nolasco has been. His numbers against righties are ridiculous and you have to think his role will be pulled if he cant start to turn it around. Both his peripherals and Vegas think his struggles will continue here and I have to agree. Matt Holliday has had a bit of a resurgence with Yankees at 37 years old. He's sporting a very impressive .379 wOBA against righties and has already hit 11 home runs against them. He has always been a guy who hits better at home and this year has been no different, holding a .385 wOBA in Yankee Stadium. Ricky Nolasco is going to have a ton of trouble with the Yankees here and I'm not sure the long reliever(s) will fare much better. This is a dangerous team and at home, nearly unstoppable. Matt Holliday is extremely safe and priced fair enough around the industry to play in all formats. Don't let his last few years dissuade you.

Kennys Vargas FD 2900 DK 3700
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 12.21 DK - 9.17

As a warning, you are going to see a lot of Minnesota Twins in the following positions. One at each to be exact. They are there with the Yankees as best spots on the entire slate and I could have even mentioned Gimenez at catcher. The Twins are expected to score close to 6 runs and Vegas has them as the top offense by a pretty solid margin. Dylan Holmberg, a lefty, has seen some luck as of late, but everyone knows it won't last very much longer. There isn't even an argument to be made when someone is holding a .127 BABIP. Holmberg is a bad pitcher and he's going to get hit around a lot. The Twins are going to start that tonight at home in Progressive Field, where they have been a top 10 offense against lefties. Kennys Vargas in particular, has been slightly better against lefties over his career, but is a switch-hitter with power from both sides. He's a cost effective option and gives you just as much HR upside as most guys at the position. Holmberg has held HR issues all through the minors and you have to love the Twins to hit a few. Vargas is as good of a candidate as any. Don't be afraid to take a shot.

Early - Hanley Ramirez & Mitch Moreland

Second Base

Brian Dozier FD 3500 DK 4500
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 13.93 DK - 11.11

Brian Dozier is going to be one of the top Twins you want to target. He'll be in the leadoff spot and has the most potential behind Sano against left-handers. Dozier is an absolute machine against lefties and is once again proving it this year. While the season is short and you can't conclude anything, Dozier has held a .446 wOBA against lefties. In 2016, he smacked 11 home runs against them in just 60 games. He's the real deal against lefties and shouldn't be looked at as a weak second baseman. He has 1B/OF power and is fully worth the salary. There isn't much else to say about Dylan Holmberg besides he has impending doom very close. In fact, I would be astonished to see such a low BABIP last another full start. Progressive Field is neutral and the Twins hit well there, so be on the lookout for some runs in Minny tonight.

Jason Kipnis FD 3500 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.18 DK - 8.92

The Cleveland Indians seems to face a horrible pitcher every single night. Tonight, there facing off with the Baltimore Orioles and Kevin Gausman. Gausman has been one of the absolute worst pitchers in baseball this season, sporting a .428 wOBA against righties and nearly a .350 against lefties. The game is at Camden Yards, where the ball flies like crazy. The Indians are going to put up runs here and Jason Kipnis is a huge part of the order. Over the last 3 seasons, he's posted a .378 wOBA. He has a ton of HR potential in Camden Yards and is always a threat to steal a bag (Gausman is bad at holding runners).Kipnis and Dozier are very close for me and I think a 50/50 split may be where I end up. Kipnis and the Indians are in a strong spot and will be overlooked by many.

Early - Scooter Gennett

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Shortstop

Aledmys Diaz FD 3000 DK 3500
Opponent - PHI (Pivetta) Park - @PHI
FD - 9.71 DK - 7.74

The Cardinals are always a tough team to gauge, packed full of weird hitters with a lot of uncertainty (Molina, Gyorko, Pham). You then have guys like Aledmys Diaz and Matt Carpenter, who do what you expect. While everyone runs into stints of trouble, Diaz is a guy who is a legitimate hitter in this league. When you watch him hit, you can tell. He has a mature approach at the plate and doesn't get pushed over by good pitching. He faces off with a young righty in Nick Pivetta tonight. Pivetta is allowing a crazy .392 wOBA to righties, though it surely elevated due to small sample size. He's still not a good pitcher and the Cardinals are projected for well over 5 runs in the game. Citizens Bank Park is definitely a plus for righties and Diaz always has the HR power. He's fairly priced on both sites and makes for a very strong cash game option, as well as a tournament saver.

Francisco Lindor FD 3200 DK 4300
Opponent - BAL (Gausman) Park - @BAL
FD - 11.73 DK - 9.46

A lot of people still think Kevin Gausman is good. He came through the minors with some hype and was decent in his first few major league seasons. At this point, he's completely fallen apart and is having trouble getting anyone out. Until he shows signs of turning it around, we have to target the opposing lineup. Shortstop is always one of the weaker positions on the slate and we don't necessarily need to look for a 30 HR guy. While Lindor does have plenty of power, he's a bit safer and lends towards cash games. In Camden Yards, it's hard not to get excited for an offense like this. A team stack is firmly in play and I would definitely go Encarnacion over Santana, as a note. Make sure you get MR. Lindor in there as well. He can steal a bag and hit an HR with ease in the same game. While he'll cost you on DK, it's not like you have to spend it on pitching.

Eduardo Escobar is another strong option from the Twins here. I didn't want to clutter the article with 1-8 in Minnesota, but don't worry, we'll get to some more.

Early - Trea Turner

Third Base

Miguel Sano FD 4100 DK 3900
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 14.27 DK - 10.66

If you didn't expect Miguel Sano to be here, you must be crazy. Sano may end up being one of the more popular players on the entire slate and I am just fine with it. He's in a fantastic match-up and has been slamming the ball to all parts of the field. Against lefties, Sano has posted a .412 wOBA and backed it up with a 48.5% hard contact rate. He basically hits a line drive or home runs half of the time. Sano is simply one of the 7 best power hitters in baseball and you can't deny the type of upside he brings to the table every single night out. Dylan Holmberg is nothing special. He's journeyed through the minor leagues and now finds himself in a temporary role with the Sox. He will start to get hit around and will be away from out lives very soon. When any pitcher has a BABIP under .150, you can target everyone on the opposing team. Sano may be my top play on the entire slate and is definitely my choice for HR of the night, though it feels a bit like cheating.

Josh Donaldson FD 4000 DK 4700
Opponent - TEX (Ross) Park - @TEX
FD - 14.38 DK - 10.85

Tyson Ross hasn't pitched more than 10 innings since 2015. He's going to likely pitch 4 or 5 innings at max and leave the rest to the bullpen. Even when he is in the game, the Jays have a great chance of doing some damage. The currently hold an implied team total of 5.68 and are favored against a home Rangers team. Ross has always been better against righties, but not great. His troubles with the long ball will surface in Arlington and he has always been a very walk prone arm. Josh Donalson and the Jays have been swinging the bat well and we all know how great of a hitter Donaldson in. He won MVP just two seasons back. He's hitting well against both sides of the plate now and has worked away from his severe lefty split. Donaldson is very expensive but has tons of HR potential and will not be very highly owned. Globe Life Park is a great park for hitting and a big reason you see an 11.5 over/under. Expect some fireworks in Arlington.

Early - Kris Bryant

Outfield

Carlos Gonzalez FD 3800 DK 3600
Opponent - ARI (Walker) Park - @COL
FD - 13.25 DK - 10.15

Taijuan Walker isn't too tough to figure out. He's bad against lefties and good against righties. In Coors Field, I'm not sure if he's "good" against anyone. Coors Field is easily the best park in baseball for hitting and everyone in this game is in play. We will see many 15 run+ games during the summer and plenty of people will ride Coors Field to the top of tournaments. It's a great strategy. Walker hasn't been as bad against lefties this year, but his low BABIP suggests things to come. Even if he was pitching his best ball, you want to target Carlos Gonzalez in this spot. CarGo has been raking righties for how many years now? He smashed one out last night and sees an even more favorable match-up against Taijuan Walker and a bad bullpen in Coors Field. Gonzalez is fairly price don both sites and doesn't see the typical Coors Field price-up. CarGo is my top option in the OF and will be a mainstay in both my cash games and tournaments.

Aaron Judge FD 4700 DK 5400
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @NYY
FD - 13.88 DK - 10.68
Aaron Hicks FD 3400 DK 4300
Opponent - LAA (Nolasco) Park - @NYY
FD - 12.48 DK - 9.98

Man, this duo of Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez is truly special. They are both destroying every baseball in vision and have shown no plans of slowing down anytime soon. Judge is sporting a .458 wOBA against right-handers and has already hit 18 homers against them. You then get into Aaron Hicks, who is a bit more of a cash game option. He's a switch-hitter who has held a .408 wOBA against right-hander so far this season. He's been a huge part of this Yankees offenses and is a bat that has cooking for a while in the Twins organization. The Yankees return back home tonight and face off with Ricky Nolasco, who we have touched on a bit. He has been absolutely atrocious against both sides of the plate. Against righties, a .386 wOBA. Against lefties, .357. He's allowing a ton of home runs and has shown no signs of being unlucky.

Robbie Grossman FD 2700 DK 3200
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 11.65 DK - 9.07
Byron Buxton FD 2400 DK 3000
Opponent - CHW (Holmberg) Park - @MIN
FD - 8.13 DK - 6.81

These are 2 guys who are a bit too cheap, though Grossman is definitely a bit higher on my list than Buxton. I just think Buxton has a great chance of getting involved if the Twins run into a big inning. He has struggled to start his career, but will almost certainly be a productive everyday player by the time it's all said and done. As for Robbie Grossman, we don't have to speculate. He's a beast. As a switch-hitter, Grossman has very prominent splits. In 2016, he posted an insane .423 wOBA against lefties and a 26% line drive rate. He is basically an elite hitter against southpaws and is priced nowhere near it. Personally, Grossman is my favorite cash game OF on the entire slate. He has a great chance to have a big game and will help you save at the same time. All in all, this Twins lineup is one you should probably have exposure to. Vegas thinks it will score more runs than any other team and it makes a lot of sense. Dylan Holmberg will see immediate regression and the general public may look in the other direction to useless surface stats. Take advantage of such prices like this to capitalize.

 

Early - Bryce Harper, Andrew Benintendi, Corey Dickerson, Mallex Smith

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