Bubba Watson tees off on the ninth hole during the first round of the Phoenix Open golf tournament, Thursday, Feb. 4, 2016, in Scottsdale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Rick Scuteri)
DFSR is proud to bring you, Chris Durell. He'll be bringing weekly PGA picks, analysis, and breakdowns to help you cash on DraftKings. As every week in DFS PGA changes with the course setup, field of players and weather, Chris will be providing a range of different picks for cash games as well as upside plays for tournaments. If you have any questions to lineup lock you can reach him a variety of ways. Leave your question/comment below in the comments section, find him in the DFSR Chat room or hit him up on Twitter(@Jager_Bombs9).
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After some record-breaking scores were posted at the U.S. Open, most players will be looking ahead to the Open Championship at Royal Birkdale in just four weeks. That, however, doesn't leave us with a weak field this week as the Tour heads to TPC River Highlands for the Travelers Championship. Three of the world's Top 10 golfers(Mcilroy #3, Day #4, Spieth #6) and 15 of the Top 50 are in action this week.
The course is also a complete 180 degree flip from last week as TPC River Highlands is close to 1,000 yards shorter in length and is a Par 70 setup with just two Par 5's and 12 Par 4 holes. While we seen just a couple trees at Erin Hills, the fairways are lined with them this week with "normal" PGA Tour bunkers protecting landing spots and the greens. Water comes into play on the 13th hole as it lines the right-hand side and also holes 15, 16, and 17 surround a big lake.
Over the years we have seen players go about attacking the course in different ways which doesn't limit our field to distance or accuracy. Bubba Watson in his two wins crushed the field off the tee and was just average or slightly better in other areas. Russell Knox, last season, used his accuracy and putting to take home the hardware. The biggest I am looking at this week as you will see below in my top stats is Strokes Gained: Off the Tee + Approach and Par 4 Scoring.
For cash games, I will be looking closely at the sub $10K range to build my core and then stay more with a balanced approach. For tournaments, I will be looking to build around a core the same core for the most part but also using some contrarian plays that could be lower owned with similar upside.
TPC River Highlands - Cromwell, CT
Par 70 - 6,841 Yards
Greens - Bentgrass
Past Five Winners
My Key Stats:
Other Stats I am looking at - Bogey Avoidance, Strokes Gained Putting
I will also be factoring in players who do well on Par 70 courses and Pete Dye designed courses. This information can be found be visiting the Future of Fantasy's Golfanac.
If you are into the Strokes Gained Metrics, jump on over to DataGolf where they have breakdowns by tournament or by player showing strokes gained statistics. You will see me reference these in my articles and videos.
Bubba Watson
World Golf Ranking (#40)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($8,400)
FanDuel ($8,500)
Over the course of one's career, no one has dominated TPC River Highlands quite like Bubba. He missed the cut here in his first trip back in 2006, skipped the 2007 event and has not only made the cut in nine straight years since but has won twice('10/'15) with five total Top 10 finishes. Looking back at his 2015 win, he did with his off the tee game where he led the field in Driving Distance while ranking outside the Top 20 in Driving Accuracy, Grees in Regulation and Putting Average. He is not safe for cash games as the form has not been at all consistent but that could leave him slightly lower owned and a nice GPP play this week at a course he is completely comfortable with.
Charley Hoffman
World Golf Ranking (#49)
Vegas Odds (40/1)
Draftkings ($7,300)
FanDuel ($8,300)
Like Bubba, he missed the cut here in his first trip to TPC River Highlands and has trended up ever since. While he doesn't have the wins he has been very consistent making the cut in six straight with two Top 10 finishes. Charley checks the form box this week coming off an 8th place finish at the U.S. Open and has made six straight and nine of his last 10 cuts. His best value is on DraftKings where he is in the low $7K range, $261 lower than his season average(dating back to the ToC).
Marc Leishman
World Golf Ranking (#37)
Vegas Odds (33/1)
Draftkings ($9,300)
FanDuel ($8,300)
Another former winner to close out the course history section with Marc Leishman. He has made all six cuts here at TPC River Highlands, winning in 2012 and finishing with a Top 10 last year. He ranks fourth overall in my model this week as he is one of just three players to rank inside the Top 15 in all three categories(history, form, stats). He is coming off a T27 at the U.S. Open and has made four straight and seven of his last eight cuts. Statistically, he ranks 28th in the field in SG: APP, and Top 20 in SG: OTT, Par 4 & 5 Scoring, Bogey Avoidance, and Birdie or Better %. He is a great play in all formats.
Paul Casey
World Golf Ranking (#16)
Vegas Odds (22/1)
Draftkings ($9,700)
FanDuel ($9,400)
This is the first time in a long time the Top 3 golfers on my sheet were all sub $10K but here we are. It's like the sheet somehow saw all the carnage at the top at the U.S. Open. Seriously though Paul Casey more than deserves the honors at #1 as he is the only player who ranks Top 10 in all three categories. He had a disappointing 75/74 finish last week and with 26th but is coming in with the best five-week form of any player in the field with 11 straight made cuts which include six Top 25's and a Top 10 at the Masters. He has only played here at TPC Riverhighlands twice but finished runner-up in 2015 and T17 last year. He is another player I will be using in all formats this week.
Patrick Reed
World Golf Ranking (#17)
Vegas Odds (28/1)
Draftkings ($9,500)
FanDuel ($9,200)
It has been quite the year from Reed to this point. He started off making nine of nine cuts but only recorded one Top 10. He then went on to miss three straight cuts in April and since then has been knocking on the door to picking up another PGA Tour win. He is coming off a T13 at the U.S. Open with two sub 70 rounds and has made six straight cuts with no Top 10's but five Top 25 finishes. The fact he has up and down form here(T11, Cut, Cut, T18, T47 last 5 years) and doesn't fit the stats model leaves him as a high upside GPP play this week.
Chez Reavie
World Golf Ranking (#121)
Vegas Odds (90/1)
Draftkings ($6,900)
FanDuel ($6,400)
Reavie comes at a terrific value under $7k on both sites this week and ranks Top 10 on my overall model. He was down a bit in the overall five tournament form but has been solid lately with an impressive T16 at the U.S. Open after his T4 at the St. Jude Classic. He has also been consistent here at TPC River Highlands making five straight cuts here after missing the cut in his first attempt back in 2008. Reavie also ranks Top 20 overall in the stats model highlighted by a rank of 18th in SG: APP, 3rd in Driving Accuracy, and 7th in Bogey Avoidance. He may not get you a Top 10 this week but comes at a value price and can be used in all formats.
Tony Finau
World Golf Ranking (#67)
Vegas Odds (35/1)
Draftkings ($8,700)
FanDuel ($8,400)
Finau is ranked #2 in my overall model this week and is one of those three players to rank inside the Top 15 in all three categories. I list him under the stats section this week as he stands out in a few key areas. He is ranked 3rd in SG: OTT + APP, 10th in Par 4 Scoring, 10th in Bogey Avoidance, and 6th in BoB%. He comes back to TPC Riverhighlands with a back to back T25 finishes in 2016 and 2015. The price is starting to creep back up($813 over his season avg.) which leaves me using him in GPP's only this week.
Graham DeLaet
World Golf Ranking (#108)
Vegas Odds (50/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($6,700)
I am going to roll with my fellow Saskatchewanian(not really what we call ourselves) and Canadian Graham DeLaet in this spot. He ranks Top 10 in my stats model highlighted by a field rank of 9th in SG: OTT + APP, 14th in SG: Putting(what??), 2nd in GIR from 125-150 Yards, and 12th in overall Scoring Average. DeLaet also returns to TPC River Highlands with some nice history making the cut in five of six tournaments with a Top 5 finish in two of his last three Travelers Championships. I still can't trust him in cash games but his price is lower than his season average and he normally comes at a low ownership making him a very viable GPP pay this week.
Byeong Hun An
World Golf Ranking (#58)
Vegas Odds (60/1)
Draftkings ($7,100)
FanDuel ($7,500)
Another GPP only play in the stats model with An this week. I think it's a great buy low play from not only a salary perspective(-$409 vs. season avg) but also from an ownership perspective as he is coming off a missed cut at the U.S. Open while he was around 14% owned. He completely fits the stats model from a strokes gained standpoint ranking Top 10 in SG: T2G, OTT, APP. His biggest struggle appears to be on the Par 5's as he ranks 137th in Par 5 scoring but the good news is there are only two this week. Being his first trip here makes it risky but if he is sub 5% owned I think he has enough upside to warrant the play in large tournaments.
I have decided to add a section to the article that takes a look at the early tags over at FanShareSports. As you can see Bubba Watson leads the way in overall tags but does have the second most sit recommendations telling me that people are so far split on his sparkling course history and bad terrible 2017 form. Brian Harman is most likely going to see a spike in ownership this week after an impressive T2 at the U.S. Open and for that reason, I will be fading him. Kyle Stanley is also getting a lot of early love which is centered around his current form. He has not shown much success here at TPOC River Highlands missing the cut in three of his last four years. He is also on my early fade list.
For a feel of where ownership is going to be this week, be sure to head over to FanShareSports where they track all the social media mentions of all players throughout the week. They then quantify this data and rank each player in their "Most Tagged List". They have also added Salary Differential, Subject Tags and Projections. All the tools you need to help you become a better daily fantasy golf player.
**Note on Stats - The stats I refer to in this article are from my own spreadsheet/cheatsheet and weigh both 2017 and 2016 stats. If you have any questions about the cheatsheet please contact me on Twitter(@Jager_Boms9).**
**Weather Update**
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for three years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in college football, NFL, NBA and of course PGA. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any PGA questions and how he copes with the winters up north.
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