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So...as of Tuesday morning, the Yankees implied team total (6.41) is more than a run higher than either team in Coors Field tonight. Have mercy on young Parker Bridwell, because the Yankess, most likely, will not. The breeze is blowing out in Yankee Stadium tonight, and this is not an offense that needs much help at the moment. They lead baseball in wRC+, wOBA, OPS and OBP vs. righties this season, and they're second in ISO. Meanwhile, Bridwell has a mediocre minor league resume that includes getting moved to the bullpen last season, as well as a history of home run/control issues. Basically, he's being asked to lasso a freight train armed with a roll of toilet paper. Of course, this is baseball and anything can happen, but in terms of probability, this is looking like a bloodbath. The Yankees in play are limited only by your imagination and salary cap, but all things being equal, our favorites are Aaron Judge, Matt Holliday, Gary Sanchez, Aaron Hicks and Brett Gardner.
In case you've missed it, things are not going well for Chris Tillman these days. After five shutout innings in his early-May season debut, he's headed directly downhill, giving up at least three runs in every start since then, including at least five runs in three of his last four with eight home runs and 22 runs allowed in his last 15 IP. We don't like to play the hot/cold streak game necessarily, but Tillman was a mediocre pitcher already, and with this year's results included, he looks downright bad. Lefties are really mashing him, and even though the sample size is small, a .418 xwOBA tells us they've earned the damage they've done. Vegas has taken notice, and has the implied Cleveland total at 5.92 and climbing, and don't expect the Indians bats to fly under the radar in GPPs tonight either. You can fade if you want -- you've got plenty of nice spots to pivot to -- but we can't recommend it. We're obviously targeting all those lefties to take advantage of Camden Yard's friendly dimensions in right, but that doesn't necessarily mean we have to fade Encarnacion. He's continuing to heat up as the season goes on, and despite an awful April is now sitting on a .359 wOBA/.250 ISO vs. RHP this season.
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I don't totally love paying up for Coors tonight, but I also have a hard time fading it completely, and at least some level of exposure is almost always warranted. The Diamondbacks get German Marquez tonight, and while the rookie has done some decent work overall, he's predictably had a rougher go of it at home. On the season, he's giving up a .350 wOBA at Coors, with 1.52 HRs/9 and a 4.58 xFIP. And he's been pretty close to split neutral, so feel free to grab the bats you like. With the understanding that games can get sideways in a hurry in Denver, and monster nights can come from unlikely sources, we're probably not straying terribly far from our usual Arizona plays in this one. Goldschmidt, Lamb, Blanco, Drury and Peralta all have a wOBA over .360 vs. RHP this season. Goldy (.318), Lamb (.311) and Drury (.228) also come with nice ISOs, so you've got some options to build around.
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I think TOR will also be a good stack.