Kevin Harvick (4) drives out of Turn 4 during the NASCAR Sprint Cup Series auto race at Phoenix International Raceway, Sunday, Nov. 13, 2016, in Avondale, Ariz. (AP Photo/Ralph Freso)
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Michigan International Speedway - Brooklyn, MI
Track - 2 Mile D Shaped Oval Intermediate
18° of Banking in the Corner
Another race, another first-time winner. It was a huge weekend in Pocono last Sunday as Ryan Blaney picked up his first career victory in the Cup series and 99th for Wood Brothers Racing and their first since the Daytona 500 in 2011. Blaney didn't just cruise to victory either as he had to make a tough pass on Kyle Busch who was blocking hard and then he had to hold off Kevin Harvick(the closer) for five laps. I would say he has more than earned his stripes! That now marks the 10th different driver to make it victory lane this season in just 14 races
That is now 10 different drivers to record a win in 14 races and the most shocking thing is that there are some big names that have yet to reach Victory Lane in 2017. Names like Kevin Harvick, Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin, Matt Kenseth, Chase Elliott, and Jamie McMurray to name a few. With Joey Logano's encumbered win at Richmond, he actually sits in the last spot above the cutline just a few points ahead of Kenseth with some other big names behind him. No need for any of these teams to panic yet as we now have 12 races remaining in the regular season before the Playoffs begin but expect the drivers without that win to push a little harder at the end of each stage to gain as many points as possible. We are in for some good racing.
This week the Monster Energy Cup series travels to Michigan International Speedway for the FireKeepers 400. Michigan is two-mile D-Shaped Oval much like Auto Club Speedway but much faster as there is right around four degrees more banking here at MIS. Looking at the cheatsheet and the last six races here, we quickly see that qualifying and starting up front is the key. Three times in the last six races the winner came from the pole position and only Kyle Larson last August started outside the Top 10 and finished inside the Top 3 in laps led. That doesn't mean Dominator points are King as only twice has a driver led over 100 laps in the last six races. Place Differential is going to be huge in finding value this week, especially in cash games. If you are playing GPP's and looking to cash in big, fading the obvious chalk is the way to go. Last week Ryan Blaney with minimal place differential value won the race and was around 5% owned in tournaments.
Let's now take a look at some of the top trends here at Michigan leading up to race weekend.
In his rookie season, Chase Elliott did everything but win here at Michigan finishing runner-up both times and leading a total of 66 laps. After Elliott, it has been all about Team Penske here at MIS as Brad Keselowski has finished 3rd, 4th, 9th, and 6th in his last four races while Joey Logano has finished 10th, 1st, 7th, 5th. Both have a sub 6.0 average finish. Matt Kenseth and Kyle Larson round out the Top 5 as both have a win here in the last two years and each has two Top 5's.
Looking at the bigger picture, Matt Kenseth has been the man here at MIS over the years with three wins, 14 Top 5's and 20 Top 10 finishes in his 35 career races. No surprises after him as Team Penske teammates Joey Logano and Brad Keselowski sit third and fourth with Brad having the slightest of edges despite not winning here. Kevin Harvick rounds out the Top 5 with one career win and a 12.7 average finish. If you are looking for a dark horse this week consider Kurt Busch who doesn't show up in the Top 5 or the Top 10 on this list with his 19.9 career average finish but does have three career wins here, the latest coming just two years ago.
The hottest drivers in the series are those without wins as Kevin Harvick comes in #1 with five Top 10 finishes in his last six races and Kyle Busch has four. Martin Truex Jr. picked up his second win of the season at Kansas and also has five Top 10's in his last six races with a sub 10.0 average finish. Rookie Daniel Suarez rounds out the Top 5 as he has been very consistent lately with two top 10's and an 11.7 average finish over his last six races.
Martin Truex Jr.($10,000) and Kyle Larson($10,300) - They will start on the front row and make an excellent start to a stars and scrubs lineup this week. They will both have a great shot at leading 40+ laps and winning the race and both have shown top speed in practices. It is also nice to see Truex Jr's price drop $300 this week at a track he has done well at in the past.
Brad Keselowski ($9,700) - Outside of four finishes outside of 25th(two out of his control), Brad has had a great season with two wins and 10 Top 10 finishes. he now comes back to a track he has been extremely successful at despite not winning. He will also provide some place differential value this week starting 12th and is currently fastest in final practice.
Ty Dillon ($6,100) - Dillon should be a lock for cash games starting dead last this week. He originally qualified 24th but got a penalty for an unapproved body mod moving him to the rear of the field. He has zero negative place differential value and showed mid 20's speed in the final practices.
For a limited time, I am offering a copy of my DFS NASCAR cheathsheet which includes Track History, Current Form, Odds, Track Type History, Practice/Qualifying Ranks and much more. Get it HERE. I also have available my Race by Race Trends sheet you can view as well.
If you have any questions scroll down to the comment section and join the conversation.Good Luck everyone!
Chris Durell has been playing Daily Fantasy Sports for four years and fantasy in general for more than a decade. He is active player in NFL, MLB, NHL, PGA, and of course NASCAR. He lives in Saskatchewan, Canada with his wife and two daughters. You can follow him on Twitter at @jager_bombs9 for advice, strategy, answers to any NASCAR questions or how he copes with the winters up north.
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View Comments
Hey Chris, with Jimmy in a back up car and heading to the back of the field, does he get differential from where he qualified or from where he is starting?
He would get place differential from where he qualified.
Yes. That is correct. He gets PD points from 13th. Makes an intriguing GPP play but coming through field is tough at Michigan. With that said, it will be easier than usual with the stages and different strategies to gain track position.
Thanks guys. If he was getting points from the back he would have been a must play imo.