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Ok, so the Red Sox aren't hitting for power. This is a troubling fact. They rank 27th in team ISO vs. RHP this season, despite playing most of their games in highly favorable parks. But this isn't a bad lineup -- 5th in OBP, third-lowest K% -- and Jerad Eickhoff's ineptitude this season (and that Vegas implied total) is just too much to ignore. Eickhoff is struggling to find the zone (3.5 BBs/9) and he's giving up runs in bunches (5.15 ERA). And with a .361 wOBA allowed vs. lefties, we'd have interest in Moreland, Benintendi, JBJ, et. al., no matter what. But 6.28 implied runs is kind of an eye-opener. We don't like to base our entire decision on a Vegas line, but anything over 6 is extreme. It won't go unnoticed either, so the Red Sox could be chalk. If there was a way to know that ahead of time, I'd be OK with fading them, but barring clairvoyance, we think you're going to want to get exposure throughout the order. Lefties are still our preferred bats, but that FanDuel price on Mookie Betts is too low to ignore.
Typically, we'd expect heavy ownership on the Orioles -- and just about anybody else -- against Mike Pelfrey. But Pelfrey's actually been pretty good at avoiding the blow-up this season (only one start with more than three runs allowed), so there's a decent chance large chunks of the GPP field are growing gun shy. That would be a good thing, as far as we're concerned, because we still think he's bound to get rocked sooner rather than later. Everything we look at tells us regression is looming. He still doesn't miss bats, his xFIP (4.95) is more than a run higher than his ERA (3.80), and his super-low wOBA allowed (.281) looks pretty phony based on his .340 xwOBA -- which by the way is an exact match of his career wOBA allowed. So, the hits are coming and when they come they'll likely pile up quickly. Of course, the Orioles have greatly under-performed this season, ranking in the bottom third of the league in both wOBA and wRC+, so if that gives you pause, it's understandable. But we still see plenty of latent thump here, and while Camden Yard gets more hype, US Cellular is also a great place to hit -- even better than Baltimore by some outlets' park factors.
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No team in baseball has a greater split disparity than the White Sox, one of baseball's worst offenses vs. RHP and one of the best vs. LHP. Against southpaws this season, they actually lead the league in wRC+ (121), wOBA (.353) and OBP (.364) -- and second place isn't even close in any of those categories. That's a nice mix against any lefty, but especially one like Wade Miley, whose 4.83 BB/9 is the worst in baseball among qualified pitchers. And Miley has a track record of struggling against righties, with a .353 wOBA allowed since the beginning of last season. That puts lots of White Sox firmly in play. Jose Abreu (.393 wOBA, .237 ISO vs. RHP since 2016) and Matt Davidson (.393, .271) are our top options, but Melky Cabrera (.353, .190) and Todd Frazier (.337, .262) are in the mix, and Avasail Garcia has been crushing lefties in 2017 (.483, .194).
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